It has been almost three months since I published. The reason being that I had cataracts in both eyes that made reading extremely difficult. I had surgery on my right eye in April. It helped, but my left eye was just as bad, and when I tried to read for any extended period of time, headaches would ensue.
I always thought that my left eye was my "GOOD" eye, but I learned quickly that was not the case.
And because of Insurance and work issues, I had to wait until recently to have my other eye done.
But now that it is done I am grateful to God Almighty for my sight, something that even a decade ago might not have been possible. Because of 20 minutes of surgery, I have 20/20 vision in both eyes, and can read the computer screen comfortably, even if I have to adjust it to 125%.
The left Eye was harder, My surgeon told me the cataract was tougher to destroy, and took longer, and collateral effect was that my cornea experienced some swelling, and it may take longer for the sight to come around. But three days after, it has, and I thank God.
It amazed me that they used compressed air to obliterate my cataracts and then insert implants for my lenses. I have two cards for my wallet, one for each eye. And I was kept awake during both procedures so they could give me direction on where to look. Even more amazingly, I now have 20/20 vision in each eye.
I wrote almost everyday, but I made so many typos it was embarrassing, So I held off publishing anything for two or more days, and in most cases, when I wrote about something, it seemed dated, so I didn't post it. That is about to change. I can see clearly now.
Saturday, August 17, 2013
Wednesday, May 29, 2013
So they held a primary and less than 10% came
The first thing I want to point out is to the Scott Ott attack dogs. There are 76,620 Republicans registered to vote in Lehigh County. Scott Ott won with less than 10% of the eligible Republicans voting for him.. 6,837, to be exact. You still want to cream about his mandate? I don't fricking think so. All it proves to me is that in all primaries, the Extremists of any party have an inordinate amount of power. Lets see how old Scotty appeals to the 108.082 Democrats come November. All we need is a 25% turnout, and old Scotty is big time toast. But I am not holding MY BREATH.
But the big story is in Allentown, where my predictions were WRONG. That's right, WRONG. I gave far too much credit to the dissatisfied folks who screamed about how everything Ed Pawlowsi did was wrong. the truth is, out of 42,652 registered Democrats, it appears only 2800 to 2900 made it to the polls to vote. Let me be generous and round that up to 3000. If I do that, it still means barely 7% of the eligible democrats showed up on election day. The proletariat would be proud.
Hell, even in the City Council race, only one appointed incumbent, Jeff Glazier, lost, and that was to Allentown Police Captain Darryl Hendricks, soon to be a recipient of the overly generous police pension that is forcing the city to lease off its' water operations. The rest of the Challengers got destroyed, as turnout fell even lower than past years when there were only three seats open on council.
I hate to admit it, but the naysayers may be right. Democracy in Allentown is a formality, and may be dead as we know it.
Here is what makes people angry with me: As much as I dislike the methods, Ed Pawlowski is moving the city forward. He is addressing the City's issues. You may not like his methods, but he is doing that, and if voter turnout is any indication, the inhabitants like where it is heading.
Who needs transparency when the voters (AND THE MORNING CALL, or WFMZ 69), don't Care?
Let me be clear; I don't like the methods, but I understand. I am a resident of the burbs, but I see he is making lemonade with turnips. God help him, but he is trying.
I have the numbers from all the races, and I am analyzing them. In my next post, I will look at Republican turnout in the city and the burbs, and look at how Scott Ott won. I privately told people it was a 55% to 45% race3 for Ott, but though it could shift. It did not. Stay Tuned.
But the big story is in Allentown, where my predictions were WRONG. That's right, WRONG. I gave far too much credit to the dissatisfied folks who screamed about how everything Ed Pawlowsi did was wrong. the truth is, out of 42,652 registered Democrats, it appears only 2800 to 2900 made it to the polls to vote. Let me be generous and round that up to 3000. If I do that, it still means barely 7% of the eligible democrats showed up on election day. The proletariat would be proud.
Hell, even in the City Council race, only one appointed incumbent, Jeff Glazier, lost, and that was to Allentown Police Captain Darryl Hendricks, soon to be a recipient of the overly generous police pension that is forcing the city to lease off its' water operations. The rest of the Challengers got destroyed, as turnout fell even lower than past years when there were only three seats open on council.
I hate to admit it, but the naysayers may be right. Democracy in Allentown is a formality, and may be dead as we know it.
Here is what makes people angry with me: As much as I dislike the methods, Ed Pawlowski is moving the city forward. He is addressing the City's issues. You may not like his methods, but he is doing that, and if voter turnout is any indication, the inhabitants like where it is heading.
Who needs transparency when the voters (AND THE MORNING CALL, or WFMZ 69), don't Care?
Let me be clear; I don't like the methods, but I understand. I am a resident of the burbs, but I see he is making lemonade with turnips. God help him, but he is trying.
I have the numbers from all the races, and I am analyzing them. In my next post, I will look at Republican turnout in the city and the burbs, and look at how Scott Ott won. I privately told people it was a 55% to 45% race3 for Ott, but though it could shift. It did not. Stay Tuned.
Saturday, May 11, 2013
A few observations and predictions on Northampton County Races
Here we are, 10 days before the primary, and the Northampton County Executive and Bethlehem Mayoral races are still in doubt.
That's right, I said that they are still in doubt. Lets begin with the County Executive race.
If it were held today, I predict somewhere between 18,500 and 21,500 Democrats will vote in the race. That would be at least 3000 more than voted in the Stoffa/Reibman race in 2005. If it were held today, Callahan would get 38% (between 7030 and 8170 votes), McClure 34% (between 6290 and 7110 votes), and Reibman 28% (Between 5180 and 6020 votes).
With ten days left, there is still a great deal of room for any of the three to either fall back or surge ahead. I think the race is Callahan's to lose. The problem for me is that when I look at the overall picture, I see Reibman and Callahan engaging in a campaign of mutual assured destruction. Their numerous negative attacks on one another reminds me of the adage that "If you set out on revenge, you should dig two graves."
The tactics have allowed Councilman Lamont McClure to quietly plow forward into contention. Someone pointed out to me last week that McClure and Reibman were getting savaged in the local blogosphere. I responded that I would bet less than one percent of the participating voters in Northampton had ever read my blog, let alone certain others. Of the 20,000 likely voters in the Dem primary, Even if 5% ever read one of the blogs covering the Council race, that would be 1000 voters, and do you really think that many people read all these blogs? I give a few blogs that kind of credit, but not mine. That's why when people cry foul over my presentation of Scott Ott's own dysfunctional blog ravings, I laugh at them. They doth protest too much.
What really matters In Northampton is the continued negative mail and media campaign. It has made a psychological impression on the race. I can't help but wonder if a chunk of voters goes to he polls, looks at the choices and votes for the guy that has the least negatives. That gives McClure a shot on election day. It is never over until all the votes are counted, and while we can make educated guesses, if we were educated by idiots (the candidates themselves), there's a chance any guess is idiotic.
Now moving on to the Bethlehem Mayoral race between Willie Reynolds and Bob Donchez.
In 2005, the last time John Callahan had a challenger, 3850 voter participated in Bethlehem, and Callahan won with 2300+ votes. In 2009, Callahan was unopposed, and only received 2300 votes.
Bethlehem's population and registration has stayed fairly static in the last decade, so I feel pretty sure that even with several high profile issues locally, (Garbage fees/Casino payments/budget shenanigans) Bethlehem City turnout by Democrats will not exceed 4000 voters.
My personal algorithm has Donchez winning with 53% of the vote, but that was before Reynolds got a much publicized endorsement from the local paper. I can't ignore that Bethlehem has a recent track record of electing young progressives as their mayors. Reynolds would fit right in behind Don Cunningham and John Callahan. All logic says he should not win, but sometimes logic has to be defied. I think Reynolds has the momentum and will win by a narrow margin Not 500 votes, how about 50?
That's right, I said that they are still in doubt. Lets begin with the County Executive race.
If it were held today, I predict somewhere between 18,500 and 21,500 Democrats will vote in the race. That would be at least 3000 more than voted in the Stoffa/Reibman race in 2005. If it were held today, Callahan would get 38% (between 7030 and 8170 votes), McClure 34% (between 6290 and 7110 votes), and Reibman 28% (Between 5180 and 6020 votes).
With ten days left, there is still a great deal of room for any of the three to either fall back or surge ahead. I think the race is Callahan's to lose. The problem for me is that when I look at the overall picture, I see Reibman and Callahan engaging in a campaign of mutual assured destruction. Their numerous negative attacks on one another reminds me of the adage that "If you set out on revenge, you should dig two graves."
The tactics have allowed Councilman Lamont McClure to quietly plow forward into contention. Someone pointed out to me last week that McClure and Reibman were getting savaged in the local blogosphere. I responded that I would bet less than one percent of the participating voters in Northampton had ever read my blog, let alone certain others. Of the 20,000 likely voters in the Dem primary, Even if 5% ever read one of the blogs covering the Council race, that would be 1000 voters, and do you really think that many people read all these blogs? I give a few blogs that kind of credit, but not mine. That's why when people cry foul over my presentation of Scott Ott's own dysfunctional blog ravings, I laugh at them. They doth protest too much.
What really matters In Northampton is the continued negative mail and media campaign. It has made a psychological impression on the race. I can't help but wonder if a chunk of voters goes to he polls, looks at the choices and votes for the guy that has the least negatives. That gives McClure a shot on election day. It is never over until all the votes are counted, and while we can make educated guesses, if we were educated by idiots (the candidates themselves), there's a chance any guess is idiotic.
Now moving on to the Bethlehem Mayoral race between Willie Reynolds and Bob Donchez.
In 2005, the last time John Callahan had a challenger, 3850 voter participated in Bethlehem, and Callahan won with 2300+ votes. In 2009, Callahan was unopposed, and only received 2300 votes.
Bethlehem's population and registration has stayed fairly static in the last decade, so I feel pretty sure that even with several high profile issues locally, (Garbage fees/Casino payments/budget shenanigans) Bethlehem City turnout by Democrats will not exceed 4000 voters.
My personal algorithm has Donchez winning with 53% of the vote, but that was before Reynolds got a much publicized endorsement from the local paper. I can't ignore that Bethlehem has a recent track record of electing young progressives as their mayors. Reynolds would fit right in behind Don Cunningham and John Callahan. All logic says he should not win, but sometimes logic has to be defied. I think Reynolds has the momentum and will win by a narrow margin Not 500 votes, how about 50?
Tuesday, April 23, 2013
If I were the candidate running against Scott Ott for executive.....
I would have a piece in the mail today highlighting his views on the Terrorist attack on Boston. If I were Dean Browning, who happens to be vying with Ott for the Republican County Executive nomination, I would send a copy of Ott's Post to every Lehigh County Republican Party Committee member and ask that they condemn it. I would also create a campaign mailer targeting supervoter vets and your true believer Republicans.
If they give Scott Ott the nomination after this, it will be a kiss of death for R's across the county at any level. Because I guarantee you, Come November the Democratic party will make sure every Democrat in the County will know about Scott Ott and more will go to the polls to support their candidate over OTT than recent memory. We could see Cunningham over Ervin like turnout.
Tom Muller is a good candidate, and knows how to manage. Scott Ott knows how to insult them. What do you think voters will do with that kind of choice in November?
If they give Scott Ott the nomination after this, it will be a kiss of death for R's across the county at any level. Because I guarantee you, Come November the Democratic party will make sure every Democrat in the County will know about Scott Ott and more will go to the polls to support their candidate over OTT than recent memory. We could see Cunningham over Ervin like turnout.
Tom Muller is a good candidate, and knows how to manage. Scott Ott knows how to insult them. What do you think voters will do with that kind of choice in November?
Curious George near Hellertown? Another slow news day in the Valley
Because there is absolutely no real news to report, the big story today is that a Morning Call staffer was walking her dog and thought she saw a monkey. Because wandering wild monkees are as great a threat to democracy and our way of life as terrorists, this is front page news.
Read the story here. No word confirming other possible sightings of a Monkey wearing a blonde wig, stilletto Pumps, and driving a Black Toyota Rav 4 being sighted at a nearby firearms range.
Though there are reports that the monkee is a pretty good shot with handguns, better than many political candidates.
Just like CNN, we will report if we have a breaking news update.
For those of you wondering, this is satire.
Read the story here. No word confirming other possible sightings of a Monkey wearing a blonde wig, stilletto Pumps, and driving a Black Toyota Rav 4 being sighted at a nearby firearms range.
Though there are reports that the monkee is a pretty good shot with handguns, better than many political candidates.
Just like CNN, we will report if we have a breaking news update.
For those of you wondering, this is satire.
Monday, April 22, 2013
Scott Ott's take on the Boston Marathon bombing FOR REAL
Last Monday was a dark day in American history. But Scott Ott found the humor in it. I was born in Boston. Numerous members of my family live there, and my Uncle had a heart valve replacement Wednesday at Beth Israel Deaconess Hospital. The same hospital where many of the bombing victims and now the lone surviving suspect are currently being cared for.
Read Scott Ott's mind numbingly insensitive humor post from his Scrappleface blog here.
What Mister Ott has written about my hometown makes me angry. It is my humble opinion that he is a heartless piece of CRAP. But I think you readers should read his post, and make your own decisions.
Terrorist Bombings of American Cities are not funny. PERIOD.
Read Scott Ott's mind numbingly insensitive humor post from his Scrappleface blog here.
What Mister Ott has written about my hometown makes me angry. It is my humble opinion that he is a heartless piece of CRAP. But I think you readers should read his post, and make your own decisions.
Terrorist Bombings of American Cities are not funny. PERIOD.
Sunday, April 21, 2013
Scott Ott's personal writings show a disturbing attitude towards Teachers, among others
I make no apologies for reading Scott Ott's Scrappleface blog or any of his entries at Town Hall or the Washington Examiner. The man has written pages of what he calls humor or satire, that shows a basic lack of respect for many of the people he would be governing over should he be elected County Executive. People are furious with me for pointing out Scott Ott's own words, that he has posted. They are attacking me because that's what people do when they can't defend the truth.
Maybe he should not have written any of it? If it wasn't there, then we couldn't read it, but it is.
I have friends and relatives who are teachers in various school systems across America. They are all good people who work hard in difficult conditions to try and educate the next generation. Demeaning them does not solve the funding problems that all entities are starting to face.
On October 30, 2007 Mr Ott wrote a post on his Scrappleface blog where he referred to America's Public Schools as "DROP OUT FACTORIES". He also claimed that 40% of American High School students drop out.
I would like to know where he got those numbers. They seem outrageous, and they are.
In another entry from Scrappleface, on February 24, 2004, Mr Ott referred to the National Education Association, (NEA) as an extortionist, monopolistic cabal.
In an August 19, 2002 Scrappleface entry, Mr Ott suggested the NEA was responsible for "American Provincialism", "Narrow mindedness" and "Bigotry".
I know a lot of teachers, and I can't find one of them who ever taught their students to think that way. That is of course, unless they asked their students to read Mr Ott's writings. Then they might be able to discuss those topics pretty thoroughly.
I can't decide what of Mr Ott's published literary humor to post next. Should it be how he feels about blacks? Abortion? Planned parenthood? Or maybe his take on the Terri Schiavo controversy in 2005, where he tried to make light of the tragedy by writing about a Schiavo diet book. On february 22, 2005, Mr Ott wrote: "with the Atkins diet fad waning, obese American women have embraced a new book, "The Terri Schiavo Diet: No Willpower Required." pushing it to the top of the New York Times Bestseller list. The book, penned by a ghostwriter for Mrs. Schiavo, promises "Dramatic weight loss and life change without any need to make personally difficult decisions."
Scott Ott thinks he was being funny. What would he find funny if he was elected County Executive?
Do even the more moderate members of Lehigh County Republicans want to take a chance and find out?
I know the Democrats don't.
Maybe he should not have written any of it? If it wasn't there, then we couldn't read it, but it is.
I have friends and relatives who are teachers in various school systems across America. They are all good people who work hard in difficult conditions to try and educate the next generation. Demeaning them does not solve the funding problems that all entities are starting to face.
On October 30, 2007 Mr Ott wrote a post on his Scrappleface blog where he referred to America's Public Schools as "DROP OUT FACTORIES". He also claimed that 40% of American High School students drop out.
I would like to know where he got those numbers. They seem outrageous, and they are.
In another entry from Scrappleface, on February 24, 2004, Mr Ott referred to the National Education Association, (NEA) as an extortionist, monopolistic cabal.
In an August 19, 2002 Scrappleface entry, Mr Ott suggested the NEA was responsible for "American Provincialism", "Narrow mindedness" and "Bigotry".
I know a lot of teachers, and I can't find one of them who ever taught their students to think that way. That is of course, unless they asked their students to read Mr Ott's writings. Then they might be able to discuss those topics pretty thoroughly.
I can't decide what of Mr Ott's published literary humor to post next. Should it be how he feels about blacks? Abortion? Planned parenthood? Or maybe his take on the Terri Schiavo controversy in 2005, where he tried to make light of the tragedy by writing about a Schiavo diet book. On february 22, 2005, Mr Ott wrote: "with the Atkins diet fad waning, obese American women have embraced a new book, "The Terri Schiavo Diet: No Willpower Required." pushing it to the top of the New York Times Bestseller list. The book, penned by a ghostwriter for Mrs. Schiavo, promises "Dramatic weight loss and life change without any need to make personally difficult decisions."
Scott Ott thinks he was being funny. What would he find funny if he was elected County Executive?
Do even the more moderate members of Lehigh County Republicans want to take a chance and find out?
I know the Democrats don't.
Friday, April 19, 2013
What Lehigh County Executive Candidate Scott Ott really feels about Military Veterans (In his own damning words)
East Penn School Board Member Julian Stolz, someone I know and like despite disagreeing with much of his politics, has said some pretty controversial things lately in Social media that have put him in some hot water. Julian is opinionated but in my opinion, it is all much ado about nothing. He is young, and just getting started.
But Lehigh County Executive Candidate Scott Ott has a plethora of colorful quotes and opinions that he has issued for public consumption on the Internet in the last decade. Some of this stuff is so disturbing you can't believe he actually wrote or said it. If someone is running for elected office, you want to believe that they will take the job seriously.You also want to believe that they realize they represent everyone, not just the few that voted for them, and they have a duty not only to serve all, but RESPECT ALL. After reading through Mr. Ott's so called "satirical" views concerning many different groups, none of which he either belongs to or has affection for, I am sure of one thing: There's a whole bunch of us that he looks down upon in society. The only purpose we serve in his eyes is to be ridiculed and disparaged. Those are not things most people look for in their leaders. In fact, it is the kind of thing I saw in most cowardly bullies.
I am a United States Army Veteran, a member of the American Legion, and I don't think too highly of would be politicians/half assed so called journalists who mock military Veterans and the plight many of them face after service. So today's entry will concentrate on what Scott Ott erroneously thinks is funny about Veterans.
In April 2009, during his first run for County Executive, Scott Ott suggested in the Washington Examiner where he was a regular contributor that Democrats view war veterans as poorly educated and deeply troubled. I know Mr Ott has a degree in Journalism from Penn State, but nowhere in his resume did I see any doctorates in Psychology. I also didn't see any military service time on there, so I can't figure out where he got the qualifications to make such judgements about military personnel, or what makes him think he knows where we came from or what our education levels are. I could argue all day on that point, but instead I want to remind everyone of one thing that all Military members do:
We Stand ready to defend your freedoms. One of those freedoms is the right to free speech. I will defend to the death Mr Ott's right to say and/or write incredibly insensitive things.
But I will also exercise my right to point out that I find much of what he has written and claims to be "satire" to be incredibly insensitive to the plight of many military veterans. I am going to use two instances in the not so distant past to illustrate my point.
Here is the first quote, from a Washingtom Examiner piece in April 2009:
"After the Department of Homeland Security sparked a firestorm of protest from right-wing extremists over a nine page report on the "resurgence in radicalization and recruitment among right-wing extremists groups, DHS chief Janet Napolitano announced today that her department would soon release a similar report on leftist groups via twitter. The "Rightwing Extremism" report warned that the current economic crisis, and the election of a black President, could inspire returning war veterans and others to join violent groups plotting against their own nation......Meanwhile Napolitano said she would meet with veterans groups to apologize for what many saw as a disparaging characterization in the report on right-wing extremists. "I would say that I am sorry if some of our deeply troubled war vets misunderstood our report because of their limited education" Ms Napolitano said. "After all they joined the military because they had no other options. We at Homeland Security should be sensitive to folks who didn't have the benefit of a liberal arts education, or the kind of wisdom that comes from high level policy meetings in Washington D. C." (Scott Ott, Examiner April 17, 2009)
Mr Ott took a legitimate news report on right wing extremists groups in America and twisted it into what he thought was a humorous piece that demeaned the new Obama administration.
Mr Ott thinks this is funny. This is his idea of satire, mocking Military veterans.This was not a one time thing, In the years before John McCain became the Republican nominee for President in 2008, he was a constant butt of Mr Ott's humor.
To further illustrate Mr. Ott's lack of compassion, or disdain for any veteran who has served, let's go back to March 2007 when Scott Ott published his TOP TEN REASONS TO NOMINATE JOHN MCCAIN FOR PRESIDENT on his SCRAPPLEFACE blog
:
10. Years as POW in Solitary Confinement prepared him for isolation of White House "Bubble"
9.Won't accept Presidential paycheck, since at 72 he can live off Social Security
8.More exciting presidential news conferences as reporters vie to light his fuse
7.To beat him, Libs will have to get through his gang of 14
6.Unlike Senators, Presidents have term Limits
5. He has a lock on the black vote, because his middle name is Sidney, Like Poitier
4.Won't surrender to anyone, since war injury prevents raising hands above head.
3.No longer despises "Agents of intolerance" on whacko religious right
2. Definition of "Surge" starts with 200,000 new boots, and Al Sadr dangling from a rope
1. Not beholden to the Republican Party or Other Special interest groups.
Scott Ott published this on his Scrappleface Blog on March 1, 2007.
John McCain is a decorated War hero who spent more than 5 years in a Vietnamese POW camp under brutal conditions. He has served Our country all his life, and while I have different politics, I respect him. How is this funny? The entire list offends me, but number 4 is so blatantly disturbing that I cringe every time I read it. How do you mock a man's horrific war injury?
On this list alone, Ott mocks POW's, Social Security Recipients, and African Americans and makes it looks unnaturally easy.
Mr Ott has a right to say whatever he wants, but what a person says and does also shows a great deal about what kind of person they are, and just where they see you in the scheme of things. Mr. Ott has shown me in his writings that he does not respect those who have served this country, among others.
Mr Ott continually presents himself as a good christian and follower of the word of Jesus.
I wonder what Jesus would say about his attitude towards our wounded heroes?
I would urge all my brother and sister veterans to take a pause before considering voting for this man at any level. He seems to think it all is a great big joke. Well it isn't. We need serious leaders who know what they are doing, and treat ALL the people they are elected to serve with respect. I do not believe Scott Ott will do that, and I guarantee you, come November, there will be mailings to every Possible Lehigh County Voter pointing out how Scott Ott feels about each and every one of them.
Veterans are just one of the groups Mr. Ott has mocked. I don't trust any person who disparages an American hero such as John McCain, or jokingly refers to any of my brother or sister veterans as deeply troubled because of our "so called" limited education. The plight of veterans returning home from the last decade of wars is no joking matter. Veterans are not uneducated, as a matter of fact, the military puts a high priority on education for all personnel, making higher education opportunities available for active duty members even when serving in the field. But Mr. Ott wouldn't know that, the closest he gets to any military personnel, past or present, is when he is trying to figure out a way to cut their services locally, so he can honor his pledge to kill off all useful government.
We need leaders at the local level dedicated to making sure services are available to area veterans who desperately need them. Mr. Ott has vocally expressed his desire many times to refuse any and all pass through funding from higher levels of government that would fund those services. We can not trust him as County Executive to ensure he will do the right thing and take care of those in need.
Veterans services are not an entitlement program, they are keeping a promise made to those who have served. The only thing Mr Ott seems to promise is that he will continue to mock us to further his political career and agenda.
But Lehigh County Executive Candidate Scott Ott has a plethora of colorful quotes and opinions that he has issued for public consumption on the Internet in the last decade. Some of this stuff is so disturbing you can't believe he actually wrote or said it. If someone is running for elected office, you want to believe that they will take the job seriously.You also want to believe that they realize they represent everyone, not just the few that voted for them, and they have a duty not only to serve all, but RESPECT ALL. After reading through Mr. Ott's so called "satirical" views concerning many different groups, none of which he either belongs to or has affection for, I am sure of one thing: There's a whole bunch of us that he looks down upon in society. The only purpose we serve in his eyes is to be ridiculed and disparaged. Those are not things most people look for in their leaders. In fact, it is the kind of thing I saw in most cowardly bullies.
I am a United States Army Veteran, a member of the American Legion, and I don't think too highly of would be politicians/half assed so called journalists who mock military Veterans and the plight many of them face after service. So today's entry will concentrate on what Scott Ott erroneously thinks is funny about Veterans.
In April 2009, during his first run for County Executive, Scott Ott suggested in the Washington Examiner where he was a regular contributor that Democrats view war veterans as poorly educated and deeply troubled. I know Mr Ott has a degree in Journalism from Penn State, but nowhere in his resume did I see any doctorates in Psychology. I also didn't see any military service time on there, so I can't figure out where he got the qualifications to make such judgements about military personnel, or what makes him think he knows where we came from or what our education levels are. I could argue all day on that point, but instead I want to remind everyone of one thing that all Military members do:
We Stand ready to defend your freedoms. One of those freedoms is the right to free speech. I will defend to the death Mr Ott's right to say and/or write incredibly insensitive things.
But I will also exercise my right to point out that I find much of what he has written and claims to be "satire" to be incredibly insensitive to the plight of many military veterans. I am going to use two instances in the not so distant past to illustrate my point.
Here is the first quote, from a Washingtom Examiner piece in April 2009:
"After the Department of Homeland Security sparked a firestorm of protest from right-wing extremists over a nine page report on the "resurgence in radicalization and recruitment among right-wing extremists groups, DHS chief Janet Napolitano announced today that her department would soon release a similar report on leftist groups via twitter. The "Rightwing Extremism" report warned that the current economic crisis, and the election of a black President, could inspire returning war veterans and others to join violent groups plotting against their own nation......Meanwhile Napolitano said she would meet with veterans groups to apologize for what many saw as a disparaging characterization in the report on right-wing extremists. "I would say that I am sorry if some of our deeply troubled war vets misunderstood our report because of their limited education" Ms Napolitano said. "After all they joined the military because they had no other options. We at Homeland Security should be sensitive to folks who didn't have the benefit of a liberal arts education, or the kind of wisdom that comes from high level policy meetings in Washington D. C." (Scott Ott, Examiner April 17, 2009)
Mr Ott took a legitimate news report on right wing extremists groups in America and twisted it into what he thought was a humorous piece that demeaned the new Obama administration.
Mr Ott thinks this is funny. This is his idea of satire, mocking Military veterans.This was not a one time thing, In the years before John McCain became the Republican nominee for President in 2008, he was a constant butt of Mr Ott's humor.
To further illustrate Mr. Ott's lack of compassion, or disdain for any veteran who has served, let's go back to March 2007 when Scott Ott published his TOP TEN REASONS TO NOMINATE JOHN MCCAIN FOR PRESIDENT on his SCRAPPLEFACE blog
:
10. Years as POW in Solitary Confinement prepared him for isolation of White House "Bubble"
9.Won't accept Presidential paycheck, since at 72 he can live off Social Security
8.More exciting presidential news conferences as reporters vie to light his fuse
7.To beat him, Libs will have to get through his gang of 14
6.Unlike Senators, Presidents have term Limits
5. He has a lock on the black vote, because his middle name is Sidney, Like Poitier
4.Won't surrender to anyone, since war injury prevents raising hands above head.
3.No longer despises "Agents of intolerance" on whacko religious right
2. Definition of "Surge" starts with 200,000 new boots, and Al Sadr dangling from a rope
1. Not beholden to the Republican Party or Other Special interest groups.
Scott Ott published this on his Scrappleface Blog on March 1, 2007.
John McCain is a decorated War hero who spent more than 5 years in a Vietnamese POW camp under brutal conditions. He has served Our country all his life, and while I have different politics, I respect him. How is this funny? The entire list offends me, but number 4 is so blatantly disturbing that I cringe every time I read it. How do you mock a man's horrific war injury?
On this list alone, Ott mocks POW's, Social Security Recipients, and African Americans and makes it looks unnaturally easy.
Mr Ott has a right to say whatever he wants, but what a person says and does also shows a great deal about what kind of person they are, and just where they see you in the scheme of things. Mr. Ott has shown me in his writings that he does not respect those who have served this country, among others.
Mr Ott continually presents himself as a good christian and follower of the word of Jesus.
I wonder what Jesus would say about his attitude towards our wounded heroes?
I would urge all my brother and sister veterans to take a pause before considering voting for this man at any level. He seems to think it all is a great big joke. Well it isn't. We need serious leaders who know what they are doing, and treat ALL the people they are elected to serve with respect. I do not believe Scott Ott will do that, and I guarantee you, come November, there will be mailings to every Possible Lehigh County Voter pointing out how Scott Ott feels about each and every one of them.
Veterans are just one of the groups Mr. Ott has mocked. I don't trust any person who disparages an American hero such as John McCain, or jokingly refers to any of my brother or sister veterans as deeply troubled because of our "so called" limited education. The plight of veterans returning home from the last decade of wars is no joking matter. Veterans are not uneducated, as a matter of fact, the military puts a high priority on education for all personnel, making higher education opportunities available for active duty members even when serving in the field. But Mr. Ott wouldn't know that, the closest he gets to any military personnel, past or present, is when he is trying to figure out a way to cut their services locally, so he can honor his pledge to kill off all useful government.
We need leaders at the local level dedicated to making sure services are available to area veterans who desperately need them. Mr. Ott has vocally expressed his desire many times to refuse any and all pass through funding from higher levels of government that would fund those services. We can not trust him as County Executive to ensure he will do the right thing and take care of those in need.
Veterans services are not an entitlement program, they are keeping a promise made to those who have served. The only thing Mr Ott seems to promise is that he will continue to mock us to further his political career and agenda.
Wednesday, April 17, 2013
If Newtown is not the tipping point, what the hell is?
In December, 20 children were mowed down by a madman in Newtown Connecticut. Back in 2006, there was an amish school shooting here in PA that made all the news. Remember that? Probably not.
We Americans seem to have become desensitized to violence, and from what I have seen in the past thirty years, there is very little evidence to refute that thought. I remember in the late 1980's as the drug crack brought violent warfare to every American city. Young Americans died at a horrifying rate, but it was poor minorities, so nobody relly cared. There was a lot of political rhetoric, but the bloodshed went on into the 1990's.
I have come to believe that we Americans just don't give a damn. As long as it is not our family member, we will profess our sorrow, offer our prayers, and move on, taking our kids to Dave and Busters or the Iron Pigs game. We never believe it will happen to us.
The thing is, Fate is the hunter. You really don't know where the next whack job will strike, and most Americans are willing to gamble it won't effect them.
I don't know what to say, but I am tired of watching innocent children die because of nutjobs. I don't have an answer, but I find it absolutely irresponsible that no one is willing to take the lead and find a starting point.
I disagree with Senator Pat Toomey on so many issues, but I respect him for trying to do something on this one. It Took courage. Too bad the rest of Congress didn't have any.
We Americans seem to have become desensitized to violence, and from what I have seen in the past thirty years, there is very little evidence to refute that thought. I remember in the late 1980's as the drug crack brought violent warfare to every American city. Young Americans died at a horrifying rate, but it was poor minorities, so nobody relly cared. There was a lot of political rhetoric, but the bloodshed went on into the 1990's.
I have come to believe that we Americans just don't give a damn. As long as it is not our family member, we will profess our sorrow, offer our prayers, and move on, taking our kids to Dave and Busters or the Iron Pigs game. We never believe it will happen to us.
The thing is, Fate is the hunter. You really don't know where the next whack job will strike, and most Americans are willing to gamble it won't effect them.
I don't know what to say, but I am tired of watching innocent children die because of nutjobs. I don't have an answer, but I find it absolutely irresponsible that no one is willing to take the lead and find a starting point.
I disagree with Senator Pat Toomey on so many issues, but I respect him for trying to do something on this one. It Took courage. Too bad the rest of Congress didn't have any.
Saturday, April 13, 2013
Some insight on the ballot refusal of the Allentown Water issue petitions
If you read the blogs and the so called local media, you would think that the head of the Lehigh County Voter Registration office, Tim Benyo, was responsible for the water issue not getting on the ballot. Some folks mistakenly were lead to believe by uninformed sources that Benyo reviewed the petitions and found there to be a conflict between state and local laws, which kept Benyo from putting the question on the ballot, There is even a belief that he did nothing to notify the petition gatherers of their pending legal issues.
All of this would be wrong
You see, I have this nasty habit of asking questions and trying to find the truth. I am not sure who told what to whom, I only have the media reports and what I have read elsewhere. But I also have my firsthand investigation and my in person questioning of the parties involved.
When you want to see petitions, usually you go to County Voter registration. But this time, the big secret is that THE PETITIONS NEVER LEFT THE CITY CLERK'S OFFICE. Tim Benyo never laid eyes on them. All Benyo ever got was a communication from the City Clerk that there was a legal conflict that prevented the issue from being on the ballot. After receiving that, he kicked it upstairs at County for the legal eagles to handle. To blame REPUBLICAN Tim Benyo and claim he is an agent of dark conspiratorial forces is untrue. He, and no one else at his office, ever laid eyes on the water issue petitions.
So I went to the City Clerk's office and asked to see them. The only person there was a receptionist who wanted my name and purpose for seeing them. She retrieved the petitions for me after I made it plain that I knew they had to be there......somewhere.
She retrieved them from a cabinet from which she had to remove several piles of files to get to them.
These things were buried on the bottom drawer under God Knows what in the City Clerk's office. I did look through them, and they were the originally submitted petitions. the kicker is I already had access to copies of the petitions from a third party and knew what I was looking for. The receptionist told me I could only look at the petitions, if I wanted copies I would have to file a right to know and probably pay for them.
So after 15 minutes paging through them and verifying they were the real deal, I went back downstairs and filed a Right To know Request asking for copies of the original petitions.
I also learned at that time that the power burning plant petition folks had fallen approximately 800 signatures short in their efforts for a ballot question.
If the water issue people have questions about what happened, they should start and end their investigation at the City Clerk's office. That is where all the evidence leads, and where the petitions are, literally buried. The Lease is pretty much a done deal, and they should accept that. But the actions of the Allentown City Clerk raise ethical questions on many levels. The Clerk has an obligation to do his job properly, in this case, his neglect in not notifying the petition gatherers of a potential conflict may have been perfectly within legal bounds, but rings loudly of political maneuverings. The Clerk should be above that,
If I were an Allentown resident, I would ask City Council to review the procedure used by the Clerk in handling and verifying the petitions, and what measure are in place to enable the citizens to correct any mistakes or perceived deficiencies that might occur. A mechanism exists for candidates, isn't there one for potential ballot questions? There must be, and if there isn't, there should be.
All of this would be wrong
You see, I have this nasty habit of asking questions and trying to find the truth. I am not sure who told what to whom, I only have the media reports and what I have read elsewhere. But I also have my firsthand investigation and my in person questioning of the parties involved.
When you want to see petitions, usually you go to County Voter registration. But this time, the big secret is that THE PETITIONS NEVER LEFT THE CITY CLERK'S OFFICE. Tim Benyo never laid eyes on them. All Benyo ever got was a communication from the City Clerk that there was a legal conflict that prevented the issue from being on the ballot. After receiving that, he kicked it upstairs at County for the legal eagles to handle. To blame REPUBLICAN Tim Benyo and claim he is an agent of dark conspiratorial forces is untrue. He, and no one else at his office, ever laid eyes on the water issue petitions.
So I went to the City Clerk's office and asked to see them. The only person there was a receptionist who wanted my name and purpose for seeing them. She retrieved the petitions for me after I made it plain that I knew they had to be there......somewhere.
She retrieved them from a cabinet from which she had to remove several piles of files to get to them.
These things were buried on the bottom drawer under God Knows what in the City Clerk's office. I did look through them, and they were the originally submitted petitions. the kicker is I already had access to copies of the petitions from a third party and knew what I was looking for. The receptionist told me I could only look at the petitions, if I wanted copies I would have to file a right to know and probably pay for them.
So after 15 minutes paging through them and verifying they were the real deal, I went back downstairs and filed a Right To know Request asking for copies of the original petitions.
I also learned at that time that the power burning plant petition folks had fallen approximately 800 signatures short in their efforts for a ballot question.
If the water issue people have questions about what happened, they should start and end their investigation at the City Clerk's office. That is where all the evidence leads, and where the petitions are, literally buried. The Lease is pretty much a done deal, and they should accept that. But the actions of the Allentown City Clerk raise ethical questions on many levels. The Clerk has an obligation to do his job properly, in this case, his neglect in not notifying the petition gatherers of a potential conflict may have been perfectly within legal bounds, but rings loudly of political maneuverings. The Clerk should be above that,
If I were an Allentown resident, I would ask City Council to review the procedure used by the Clerk in handling and verifying the petitions, and what measure are in place to enable the citizens to correct any mistakes or perceived deficiencies that might occur. A mechanism exists for candidates, isn't there one for potential ballot questions? There must be, and if there isn't, there should be.
Thursday, April 11, 2013
Velez is on, but not for the reason I thought.
I thought Kim Velez would get back on the ballot because of a technicality in the withdrawal process. But Judge Varrichio, after hearing all the evidence of what transpired, ruled that it was reasonable to believe that Kim Velez withdrew under duress, and gave everybody an out. I have already made my argument concerning her signatures, but that doesn't matter. What matters is that the true spirit of Democracy was served.
You may not like the rules of electioneering as they exist, but they were played by all sides in this to the hilt. Mike Fleck did not do anything illegal. Tim Brennan did what his client asked him to do. Kim Velez is back on the ballot.
Judge all of them however you want, but Miss Velez still has to get her message out and get more than 2500 Allentown Democratic Voters to push that on screen button next to her name.
She has six weeks, and as I do all candidates, I wish her well.
You may not like the rules of electioneering as they exist, but they were played by all sides in this to the hilt. Mike Fleck did not do anything illegal. Tim Brennan did what his client asked him to do. Kim Velez is back on the ballot.
Judge all of them however you want, but Miss Velez still has to get her message out and get more than 2500 Allentown Democratic Voters to push that on screen button next to her name.
She has six weeks, and as I do all candidates, I wish her well.
Sunday, April 7, 2013
45 Days from election day, here are my Allentown Democratic City Council Primary predictions
Right off the bat, I have Kim Velez in this. I have talked to several local lawyers who think Bill Platt will win on a point of law. So let's move on. We have nine candidates and we have four spots. Joseph Davis does not matter because he is running unopposed to finish the two years left on now State Representative Mike Schlossberg's term. Here, for all intents and purposes, using lots of solid data and analyzing trends, is what all the voodoo says to me.
I believe that democratic Voter turnout on May 21st will be between 5200 and 5600 voters.
So that you can understand how I came to that number, I will explain the variables I looked at, The biggest is past voter turnout in municipal primaries since 2005.
In 2005, just over 7000 Democrats went to the polls in a heated mayors race. Yet only 6.675 of them voted in the mayors race. Pawlowski had 2692, Sam Bennett 2154, and Louie Bellettieri 1824. The Allentown Democratic Primary that thrust Ed Pawlowski to power was decided by less than 20% of the city's registered Democrats. To further my point about lack of voter interest, even in a contested Mayoral race year, I point to the City Council primary results. Voters could choose 4 candidates, meaning there could have been over 28,000 total votes cast for the seven city Council candidates. Believe it or not, there were only 17,095 votes cast, meaning an undervote of over 10,000 opportunities to vote existed. Those votes were spread out over the 7 candidates, with the highest total being 3460, and the lowest 1267.
One point of interest in that batch is that Julio Guridy,while gathering 3,095 (and that gave him 2nd place) in that year, is on the ballot for reelection this year.
In 2007 there were 5 Democratic candidates for three seats. There was also a contested Controller's race, which helps us gage interest. In the Controllers race, 4404 votes were cast by just over 4800 Democrats that came out. In the city Council race, those 4800 Democrats could have cast a total of 14,400 votes for the five candidates, Instead, the 5 candidates only accumulated 10,211 votes between them.
In 2009, Ed Pawlowski ran unopposed, and 7 candidates ran for four seats on City Council, I have exact turnout numbers for 2009, and only 4332 democrats in Allentown went to the polls. That gave a 100% potential of 17,328 votes in the City Council race, yet the five candidates only garnered 13,840, an undervote of 3,488 votes, or almost 20%
In 2011, it got worse. only 3513 registered Democrats came out for the primary, and the five candidates only garnered a total of 7563 votes out of a potential 10,539, for an undervote of 28.2%
So lets look at this again:
2005 Turnout approx 7000, actual mayor votes 6670, City Council votes 17093 of 28,000
2007 turnout approx 4800 Controller votes 4404, City Council 10211 of 14,400
2009 turnout was 4332, city council votes 13,840 of 17,328
2011 turnout was 3513, city Council votes 7563 of possible 10539.
Primary turnout in Allentown has been steadily declining, leading to fewer and fewer people making the decisions. The positive for candidates is that it makes the core group of true believers easier to identify and reach, the negative is that if you tick them off, you do so at your own peril
Another key element is the bad read of the Democratic party of Latino voters, They are transient and not rooted in the community. They make up 30% of the voting age eligible population, but less than 5% votes in the municipal primary. Cynthia Mota came in 5th of five candidates in 2011, and got her seat thru appointment when Frank Concannon resigned. She shows up no better than 7th no matter how I run the numbers. And by transient, I mean that almost 30% of the Hispanic voters who voted in Allentown in 2008 did not vote in 2012. Where did they go? That is almost 800 voters. They either moved or died, and I'm voting for moved.
My point is, Conventional wisdom about voter loyalty does not apply here. But VOTER ANGER DOES.
Originally, I had my estimate at a healthy 4400 to 4800 voters, but the core voters are angry about at least two big issues in Allentown, those being the handling of the ARENA NIZ and the Water lease. The Arena issue had me bumping turnout to the 4800 to 5200 level, and the water issue has me adding another 400 potential voters, to my present 5200 to 5600. Perhaps I am being a bit generous in thinking that the 4500 signatures gathered on the water petitions will result in about 400 Dems voting who wouldn't otherwise, but that number feels right, and sometimes you have to weigh your gut instinct.
So here's what I see for the results May 22. If 5400 Dems show up at the polls, that gives a potential of 21,600 votes cast. I see about an 18% undervote, for a total number of votes cast of around 16,858 spread between 9 Candidates.
My only true lock is Ray O'Connell with between 3100 and 2900 I think just over 50% of the voters will pick his name
Second should be Jeff Glazier. Yes he is an appointee, but he was on The Allentown School board, his family had a business in the city for decades, and many old timers and long time city residents will give him around 2500 to 2800, putting him somewhere between 2nd and 4th.
Now comes the tough calls Carmen Bell is an Obama for America organizer who knows many of the grassroots people in Allentown. Police Officer Darryl Hendricks has great relations with all of Allentowns inner city Crime watch groups. Those two have deep community connections that should put them somewhere between 3rd and 6th. Alfonso Todd and Dave Melman are in there as well, but they just aren't quite as connected or well known in Allentown. I have a same problem quantifying Melman;s name recognition that I have with Glazier, but Glazier's family history in the city bumps him up, while for some unknown reason Melman doesn't seem to have that. Alfonso Todd is putting out a street effort, and seems to be the only candidate appropriately using social media. He could bring several hundred new voters to the polls, but that is his only true shot at getting in the top four. They still have 45 days to make a stretch run, and I could see any of these five candidates pulling ahead.
I believe the cutoff between 4th and 5th place is going to be 2100 votes. I believe that you could see 5 candidates, Hendricks, Bell, Melman, Todd, and possibly Guridy within 100 votes either way of that mark.It is all about turnout. I don't believe Mota will get 1500 votes. Velez, even if she gets on the ballot, has run no campaign other than raising hell over electoral procedures, as she should, but that is not enough.
I actually separated some precincts in the District Three County Commissioners race, trying to see if having Juan Camacho on the ballot would help the Hispanics running for Allentown City Council, but it is 100 votes more at best, and split between Mota, Guridy and Velez.
The problem, and the opportunity here, is that there will likely be a huge undervote of over 4000m as I noted earlier. Many voters will only punch one or two names rather than four. The opportunity for the lesser known candidates to grow name recognition is huge, mostly because the incumbents, while having it, have it in negative spades. Glazier and O'Connell will overcome it, Mota and Guridy likely will not.
And that leads us into the uncomfortable territory of asking why Glazier and O'Connell get a pass for being perceived as part of the Mayor's bobbleheads, while Mota and Guridy don't. If you are an Allentown voter, go look in the mirror. My numbers tell me quite basically that O'Connell and Glazier's core ethnic base will show up on election day, while Guridy's, Mota's and Velez's will not. Whose fault is that? I will leave you with that thought.
UPDATE 4/11/2013 11 PM:
I noticed in the comments that someone asked where I got information on Dave Melman being on the School board. I inadvertently referred to Melman as a school board member, and he is not. I made a mistake while editing my post and used wording that would infer he had served on the ASD board. I apologize for my error, it was not intentional, but it was my error.
I believe that democratic Voter turnout on May 21st will be between 5200 and 5600 voters.
So that you can understand how I came to that number, I will explain the variables I looked at, The biggest is past voter turnout in municipal primaries since 2005.
In 2005, just over 7000 Democrats went to the polls in a heated mayors race. Yet only 6.675 of them voted in the mayors race. Pawlowski had 2692, Sam Bennett 2154, and Louie Bellettieri 1824. The Allentown Democratic Primary that thrust Ed Pawlowski to power was decided by less than 20% of the city's registered Democrats. To further my point about lack of voter interest, even in a contested Mayoral race year, I point to the City Council primary results. Voters could choose 4 candidates, meaning there could have been over 28,000 total votes cast for the seven city Council candidates. Believe it or not, there were only 17,095 votes cast, meaning an undervote of over 10,000 opportunities to vote existed. Those votes were spread out over the 7 candidates, with the highest total being 3460, and the lowest 1267.
One point of interest in that batch is that Julio Guridy,while gathering 3,095 (and that gave him 2nd place) in that year, is on the ballot for reelection this year.
In 2007 there were 5 Democratic candidates for three seats. There was also a contested Controller's race, which helps us gage interest. In the Controllers race, 4404 votes were cast by just over 4800 Democrats that came out. In the city Council race, those 4800 Democrats could have cast a total of 14,400 votes for the five candidates, Instead, the 5 candidates only accumulated 10,211 votes between them.
In 2009, Ed Pawlowski ran unopposed, and 7 candidates ran for four seats on City Council, I have exact turnout numbers for 2009, and only 4332 democrats in Allentown went to the polls. That gave a 100% potential of 17,328 votes in the City Council race, yet the five candidates only garnered 13,840, an undervote of 3,488 votes, or almost 20%
In 2011, it got worse. only 3513 registered Democrats came out for the primary, and the five candidates only garnered a total of 7563 votes out of a potential 10,539, for an undervote of 28.2%
So lets look at this again:
2005 Turnout approx 7000, actual mayor votes 6670, City Council votes 17093 of 28,000
2007 turnout approx 4800 Controller votes 4404, City Council 10211 of 14,400
2009 turnout was 4332, city council votes 13,840 of 17,328
2011 turnout was 3513, city Council votes 7563 of possible 10539.
Primary turnout in Allentown has been steadily declining, leading to fewer and fewer people making the decisions. The positive for candidates is that it makes the core group of true believers easier to identify and reach, the negative is that if you tick them off, you do so at your own peril
Another key element is the bad read of the Democratic party of Latino voters, They are transient and not rooted in the community. They make up 30% of the voting age eligible population, but less than 5% votes in the municipal primary. Cynthia Mota came in 5th of five candidates in 2011, and got her seat thru appointment when Frank Concannon resigned. She shows up no better than 7th no matter how I run the numbers. And by transient, I mean that almost 30% of the Hispanic voters who voted in Allentown in 2008 did not vote in 2012. Where did they go? That is almost 800 voters. They either moved or died, and I'm voting for moved.
My point is, Conventional wisdom about voter loyalty does not apply here. But VOTER ANGER DOES.
Originally, I had my estimate at a healthy 4400 to 4800 voters, but the core voters are angry about at least two big issues in Allentown, those being the handling of the ARENA NIZ and the Water lease. The Arena issue had me bumping turnout to the 4800 to 5200 level, and the water issue has me adding another 400 potential voters, to my present 5200 to 5600. Perhaps I am being a bit generous in thinking that the 4500 signatures gathered on the water petitions will result in about 400 Dems voting who wouldn't otherwise, but that number feels right, and sometimes you have to weigh your gut instinct.
So here's what I see for the results May 22. If 5400 Dems show up at the polls, that gives a potential of 21,600 votes cast. I see about an 18% undervote, for a total number of votes cast of around 16,858 spread between 9 Candidates.
My only true lock is Ray O'Connell with between 3100 and 2900 I think just over 50% of the voters will pick his name
Second should be Jeff Glazier. Yes he is an appointee, but he was on The Allentown School board, his family had a business in the city for decades, and many old timers and long time city residents will give him around 2500 to 2800, putting him somewhere between 2nd and 4th.
Now comes the tough calls Carmen Bell is an Obama for America organizer who knows many of the grassroots people in Allentown. Police Officer Darryl Hendricks has great relations with all of Allentowns inner city Crime watch groups. Those two have deep community connections that should put them somewhere between 3rd and 6th. Alfonso Todd and Dave Melman are in there as well, but they just aren't quite as connected or well known in Allentown. I have a same problem quantifying Melman;s name recognition that I have with Glazier, but Glazier's family history in the city bumps him up, while for some unknown reason Melman doesn't seem to have that. Alfonso Todd is putting out a street effort, and seems to be the only candidate appropriately using social media. He could bring several hundred new voters to the polls, but that is his only true shot at getting in the top four. They still have 45 days to make a stretch run, and I could see any of these five candidates pulling ahead.
I believe the cutoff between 4th and 5th place is going to be 2100 votes. I believe that you could see 5 candidates, Hendricks, Bell, Melman, Todd, and possibly Guridy within 100 votes either way of that mark.It is all about turnout. I don't believe Mota will get 1500 votes. Velez, even if she gets on the ballot, has run no campaign other than raising hell over electoral procedures, as she should, but that is not enough.
I actually separated some precincts in the District Three County Commissioners race, trying to see if having Juan Camacho on the ballot would help the Hispanics running for Allentown City Council, but it is 100 votes more at best, and split between Mota, Guridy and Velez.
The problem, and the opportunity here, is that there will likely be a huge undervote of over 4000m as I noted earlier. Many voters will only punch one or two names rather than four. The opportunity for the lesser known candidates to grow name recognition is huge, mostly because the incumbents, while having it, have it in negative spades. Glazier and O'Connell will overcome it, Mota and Guridy likely will not.
And that leads us into the uncomfortable territory of asking why Glazier and O'Connell get a pass for being perceived as part of the Mayor's bobbleheads, while Mota and Guridy don't. If you are an Allentown voter, go look in the mirror. My numbers tell me quite basically that O'Connell and Glazier's core ethnic base will show up on election day, while Guridy's, Mota's and Velez's will not. Whose fault is that? I will leave you with that thought.
UPDATE 4/11/2013 11 PM:
I noticed in the comments that someone asked where I got information on Dave Melman being on the School board. I inadvertently referred to Melman as a school board member, and he is not. I made a mistake while editing my post and used wording that would infer he had served on the ASD board. I apologize for my error, it was not intentional, but it was my error.
Friday, April 5, 2013
Velez Ballot Challenge scheduled
For those of you following this electoral primary soap opera at home, the next episode will be taking place at the Lehigh County Courthouse on Wednesday April 9th at 9:30 AM. Hearing the case will be the honorable Michelle Varrichio. Seating is festival style, first come first serve basis. If anyone attempts to sell you a ticket on the court house steps, ignore them. It is likely one of the local magisterial candidates trying to raise money for their campaign. Just kidding about that last line!
Proof Monkees are smarter than our current Republican Lehigh County Commissioner reform team
Ran across this article on MSN news. Research showed that Monkees made smarter financial decisions than humans overall. That pretty much explains all our problems with government at every level, doesn't it?
Thursday, March 28, 2013
Upon Further review.....
This is not the NFL, but earlier today I had evidence presented to me concerning my dismissal of one particular signature as invalid. Upon checking the 22 signatures I had categorized as completely invalid, I was able to find THREE that were valid. This still leaves the petitions short of the requirement, but that is a moot point, as it can not be revisited and the issue now is A) whether or not Miss Velez, as a candidate, felt intimidated or coerced to withdraw, or B) did the Lehigh County Voter registration office follow correct procedures in processing that withdrawal?
Tim Benyo has always been a stickler for following the law, but after reading the complaint by Attorney Platt, it is fair to say there is a question of whether the process as it was carried out was in exact compliance with the appropriate laws. There is some gray area there, and that is why we have judges.
As for calls for the head of Attorney Tim Brennan, there is no accusation at all in Attorney Platt's complaint that Brennan acted improperly. Mr Platt laid out the events and conversations in a precise timeline as provided by Miss Velez. After reading Miss Velez own account in the court documents, it is obvious she was more intimidated by the possibility of experiencing the challenge process than anything else. It is a scary thing running for office the first time, and she didn't have a support network of experienced people behind her to advise her. I have a feeling that once she gets back on the ballot, more than a few folks will reach out to give her a hand.
Once again, Attorney Platt has wisely made the issue about a candidate that felt intimidated and possible perceived flaws in the withdrawal process. The validity of the petitions does not matter. It is all about undoing an act that undermines the electoral/ballot process, that is, Miss Velez' withdrawal under honest and understandable duress as a first time candidate unfamiliar with the process as a whole. She should not be punished for that..
Tim Benyo has always been a stickler for following the law, but after reading the complaint by Attorney Platt, it is fair to say there is a question of whether the process as it was carried out was in exact compliance with the appropriate laws. There is some gray area there, and that is why we have judges.
As for calls for the head of Attorney Tim Brennan, there is no accusation at all in Attorney Platt's complaint that Brennan acted improperly. Mr Platt laid out the events and conversations in a precise timeline as provided by Miss Velez. After reading Miss Velez own account in the court documents, it is obvious she was more intimidated by the possibility of experiencing the challenge process than anything else. It is a scary thing running for office the first time, and she didn't have a support network of experienced people behind her to advise her. I have a feeling that once she gets back on the ballot, more than a few folks will reach out to give her a hand.
Once again, Attorney Platt has wisely made the issue about a candidate that felt intimidated and possible perceived flaws in the withdrawal process. The validity of the petitions does not matter. It is all about undoing an act that undermines the electoral/ballot process, that is, Miss Velez' withdrawal under honest and understandable duress as a first time candidate unfamiliar with the process as a whole. She should not be punished for that..
Friday, March 22, 2013
The Truth about the nominating petitions of Kim Velez
There are a great deal of accusations and assumptions being tossed around the blogosphere concerning the circumstances that brought about Kim Velez's withdrawal as an Allentown City Council Candidate. This all started with her petitions, and if you want to find the truth of the matter, it is not a bad idea to start at the beginning.
So Friday Morning I returned to Lehigh County Voter Registration and paid $1.75 for copies of the seven pages of signatures she submitted. Kim originally collected and submitted 6 pages with 108 signatures, but she later added 17 more that were collected by current City Councilwoman Jeannette Eichenwald.
So to set the record absolutely straight, Kim Velez's public record shows she submitted 125 signatures. That's how many are on the 7 pages she presented.
Now it is true she only needed 100. So with the help of the friendly staff and the use of a computer terminal, I spent from 9:45 until 12:45 Checking the Lehigh County voter rolls of EVERY SINGLE SIGNATURE on those pages.
The great thing about Lehigh County voter registration records is you can check registration by name or address, and see what the person's party is. The first thing I did was enter each last name and search it. If it came back no voter, I would enter the address. When an address pops up it shows all who are registered to vote there. A recurring issue with Kim Velez's petitions was that no such person was on the voter rolls at the address. That doesn't mean they don't live there, It just means they were not registered to vote.I found at least 22 names that were not registered to vote. As they are not registered voters of any party, especially the Democratic party which they need to be, they are not qualified electors.
That dropped the number of "GOOD" signatures to 103.
On the names that were registered voters, I found at least 12 names that were registered as other parties or no affiliation at all. They are not qualified electors either for Miss Velez, and that drops her "GOOD" signatures total to 91.
There were four signatures where the name or address were illegible, and attempts to guess were futile. The system allows trying the first three letters of a last name, and when even the addresses had no one with matching names, I took those out as well. that drops the total to 87.
There were 4 more signatures that are what can be listed as with "correctable defects." The date a person signs a petition is important, as it shows the petition was circulated during the allotted period. These particular signatures had the zip code written instead of the date. That puts them in question, and drops the total to 83. I found one more signature, it was by a registered Democrat, but it had one problem: They were registered to vote in South Whitehall, not Allentown.
Whether anyone likes it or not, I hate to tell you, but these petitions would not have survived a challenge.
The thing is, I think the more the merrier is good for Democracy, but you have to follow the rules. I have filed many petitions and never had one challenged. First, because I got more than I needed, and second because as I was getting them I made sure the person I was asking to sign was a qualified elector before handing them the pen. Then I had them sign exactly as they were registered.
It is not that hard to do. When you get your petitions from Lehigh County Voter Registration and register as a candidate, they give you a walk lists of all the precincts. It is simple, you just have to read the list and go right down the street.
I feel badly for Miss Velez, but I also feel bad for Tim Brennan. Tim is a personal friend, and the way he has been portrayed has truly bothered him. I know Tim as one of the most honest and ethical men I have ever met. I do not believe for a minute that he misrepresented himself on the phone as acting on behalf of the Lehigh County Democratic Party. I believe Tim when he tells me that all he was doing was asking her to come to his office on Monday so he could point out the flaws in her petitions. And they are flawed.
I still don't know who the client was, and that is for others to speculate on, but if you put everything else aside, Kim Velez did not meet the burden of legitimate signatures that the law requires.
All the other candidates did. How can we reward Miss Velez with a ballot position if at the end of the day, it is proven she did not earn it. If she is allowed on the ballot, a candidate might as well write the names of 100 different fictional cartoon characters down and give them whatever address they want.
Voter reg isn't going to check the names, all they do is count how many, checking the names is up to regular folks if they have doubts. Someone had doubts about Kim Velez's petitions and hired Tim Brennan to check it out. That is the way the system works, if you don't like it, work to change it.
One last point of order: I am a Lehigh County Democratic Committeeman. I have done various research for many of the political operatives in the valley area. I pride myself on being thorough. On this instance, I was not approached by anyone to do this research and I have shared it with other bloggers and parts of the media.
I also want to give a special thanks to Tim Benyo and Terri Harkins, as well as other staff at Lehigh County Voter registration for putting up with me for three hours in their office as I researched every last signature. I would like to point out that they helped me verify at least a dozen signatures as being good, as well as the 43 I found to be bad..
I have decided against posting the petitions online, even if they are public record. I believe the people who signed have a right to privacy, and possibly would not be willing to get involved in the Democratic process next time if they knew their names and addresses, as well as party affiliation, would be splattered on the Internet.
So Friday Morning I returned to Lehigh County Voter Registration and paid $1.75 for copies of the seven pages of signatures she submitted. Kim originally collected and submitted 6 pages with 108 signatures, but she later added 17 more that were collected by current City Councilwoman Jeannette Eichenwald.
So to set the record absolutely straight, Kim Velez's public record shows she submitted 125 signatures. That's how many are on the 7 pages she presented.
Now it is true she only needed 100. So with the help of the friendly staff and the use of a computer terminal, I spent from 9:45 until 12:45 Checking the Lehigh County voter rolls of EVERY SINGLE SIGNATURE on those pages.
The great thing about Lehigh County voter registration records is you can check registration by name or address, and see what the person's party is. The first thing I did was enter each last name and search it. If it came back no voter, I would enter the address. When an address pops up it shows all who are registered to vote there. A recurring issue with Kim Velez's petitions was that no such person was on the voter rolls at the address. That doesn't mean they don't live there, It just means they were not registered to vote.I found at least 22 names that were not registered to vote. As they are not registered voters of any party, especially the Democratic party which they need to be, they are not qualified electors.
That dropped the number of "GOOD" signatures to 103.
On the names that were registered voters, I found at least 12 names that were registered as other parties or no affiliation at all. They are not qualified electors either for Miss Velez, and that drops her "GOOD" signatures total to 91.
There were four signatures where the name or address were illegible, and attempts to guess were futile. The system allows trying the first three letters of a last name, and when even the addresses had no one with matching names, I took those out as well. that drops the total to 87.
There were 4 more signatures that are what can be listed as with "correctable defects." The date a person signs a petition is important, as it shows the petition was circulated during the allotted period. These particular signatures had the zip code written instead of the date. That puts them in question, and drops the total to 83. I found one more signature, it was by a registered Democrat, but it had one problem: They were registered to vote in South Whitehall, not Allentown.
Whether anyone likes it or not, I hate to tell you, but these petitions would not have survived a challenge.
The thing is, I think the more the merrier is good for Democracy, but you have to follow the rules. I have filed many petitions and never had one challenged. First, because I got more than I needed, and second because as I was getting them I made sure the person I was asking to sign was a qualified elector before handing them the pen. Then I had them sign exactly as they were registered.
It is not that hard to do. When you get your petitions from Lehigh County Voter Registration and register as a candidate, they give you a walk lists of all the precincts. It is simple, you just have to read the list and go right down the street.
I feel badly for Miss Velez, but I also feel bad for Tim Brennan. Tim is a personal friend, and the way he has been portrayed has truly bothered him. I know Tim as one of the most honest and ethical men I have ever met. I do not believe for a minute that he misrepresented himself on the phone as acting on behalf of the Lehigh County Democratic Party. I believe Tim when he tells me that all he was doing was asking her to come to his office on Monday so he could point out the flaws in her petitions. And they are flawed.
I still don't know who the client was, and that is for others to speculate on, but if you put everything else aside, Kim Velez did not meet the burden of legitimate signatures that the law requires.
All the other candidates did. How can we reward Miss Velez with a ballot position if at the end of the day, it is proven she did not earn it. If she is allowed on the ballot, a candidate might as well write the names of 100 different fictional cartoon characters down and give them whatever address they want.
Voter reg isn't going to check the names, all they do is count how many, checking the names is up to regular folks if they have doubts. Someone had doubts about Kim Velez's petitions and hired Tim Brennan to check it out. That is the way the system works, if you don't like it, work to change it.
One last point of order: I am a Lehigh County Democratic Committeeman. I have done various research for many of the political operatives in the valley area. I pride myself on being thorough. On this instance, I was not approached by anyone to do this research and I have shared it with other bloggers and parts of the media.
I also want to give a special thanks to Tim Benyo and Terri Harkins, as well as other staff at Lehigh County Voter registration for putting up with me for three hours in their office as I researched every last signature. I would like to point out that they helped me verify at least a dozen signatures as being good, as well as the 43 I found to be bad..
I have decided against posting the petitions online, even if they are public record. I believe the people who signed have a right to privacy, and possibly would not be willing to get involved in the Democratic process next time if they knew their names and addresses, as well as party affiliation, would be splattered on the Internet.
Thursday, March 21, 2013
Okay, so now it is an 8 person race for Allentown City Council
I have to tell you, this Kim Velez thing is troubling,What you need to kmow is that Jim Davis is running unopposed for a two year term (finishing Frank Concannon's term, who now lives at Country Meadows in Upper Macungie). It is eight people running for four seats, now that Kim Velez has imploded.
Velez Running fractured what was already a minimal hispanic vote, her not running gives Mota or Guridy a shot at coming in fourth. But not both of them. The Hispanic electorate makes up close to 30% of the inner city Dem electorate. Too Bad their turnout averages less than 5 % in the primary. Good bye Julio!
I am running it all again with only 8 candidates. If I could predict I would say Davis is obviously a shoe in, and that O'Connell and Glazier will win 4 year terms. As for the rest, Todd will win and the rest is too close to call. More to come after I re run the parameters without Velez in the ballot..
Velez Running fractured what was already a minimal hispanic vote, her not running gives Mota or Guridy a shot at coming in fourth. But not both of them. The Hispanic electorate makes up close to 30% of the inner city Dem electorate. Too Bad their turnout averages less than 5 % in the primary. Good bye Julio!
I am running it all again with only 8 candidates. If I could predict I would say Davis is obviously a shoe in, and that O'Connell and Glazier will win 4 year terms. As for the rest, Todd will win and the rest is too close to call. More to come after I re run the parameters without Velez in the ballot..
Tuesday, March 19, 2013
Allentown PA City Council Numbers
The numbers are based on several variables, including voter participation by ethnic group, and are way out there. I just received the results from an algorith run thru the Computer capabilities of an Ivy League school, and I am flabbergasted. I have run it four times and still can't believe it. The biggest highlight has incumbent Guridy and Mota finishing no better than 6th. That is outside what is needed to make the November General. I have to check the report further on my days off, but that is where my own analysis keeps heading. I will post the results no later than Friday. A race with ten Dems vying for 5 seats is an opportunity to measure voter anger. One thing to consider is that of the 4500 signatures gathered to put the water issue on the ballet, less than 28% of those folks voted in the municipal election of 2011.
That is a wild card that is hard to measure, because of that 4500, fewer than 650 voted in the 2009 municipal election. Is the Allentown electorate that transient? or is it that disconnected?
By the way, close to 91% of the people who signed the petition to put the water lease issue on the ballot voted in November 2012. This makes making a call on turnout in May 2013 difficult.
I want to read the repoer further, but I can't help thinking that the whole damn thing is a shot in the dark
That is a wild card that is hard to measure, because of that 4500, fewer than 650 voted in the 2009 municipal election. Is the Allentown electorate that transient? or is it that disconnected?
By the way, close to 91% of the people who signed the petition to put the water lease issue on the ballot voted in November 2012. This makes making a call on turnout in May 2013 difficult.
I want to read the repoer further, but I can't help thinking that the whole damn thing is a shot in the dark
Thursday, March 14, 2013
Why the Tea Party idiots have to go
Mazziotto, Scheller and Ott. Three of the most illiterate, uninformed idiots to ever serve as Lehigh County Commissioners.
Their refusal to allow the Lehigh County Authority to bid on the Allentown Water lease is a historically bad decision.They are willing to allow all taxpayers in Lehigh County to absorb exorbitant water rates to make a point. In ten years they will be gone living on their government pensions while all of Lehigh County Foots the bill. How shortsighted do these three idiots have to be to make a point? They are adamant about tax increases being bad, but support a reassessment process that crucifies property owners at the low end of the scale. Now they refuse to allow changes to a charter that will allow Lehifg County Residents to afford water over the next 50 years...When I check their PAC expense reports, will I see money from the bidders that qualify for the Allentown Water giveaway? Anybody wanna bet?
Scott Ott is already accepting money and endorsements from for profit enterprises he views as friendly.. These people represent no one but themselves. Shiny, glossy reform mailers be damned. These people are not about reform, they are all about ideology and protecting theirdonors, Remember that at the ballot box.
Their refusal to allow the Lehigh County Authority to bid on the Allentown Water lease is a historically bad decision.They are willing to allow all taxpayers in Lehigh County to absorb exorbitant water rates to make a point. In ten years they will be gone living on their government pensions while all of Lehigh County Foots the bill. How shortsighted do these three idiots have to be to make a point? They are adamant about tax increases being bad, but support a reassessment process that crucifies property owners at the low end of the scale. Now they refuse to allow changes to a charter that will allow Lehifg County Residents to afford water over the next 50 years...When I check their PAC expense reports, will I see money from the bidders that qualify for the Allentown Water giveaway? Anybody wanna bet?
Scott Ott is already accepting money and endorsements from for profit enterprises he views as friendly.. These people represent no one but themselves. Shiny, glossy reform mailers be damned. These people are not about reform, they are all about ideology and protecting theirdonors, Remember that at the ballot box.
Where my thoughts come from.
Tonight I watched a "Big Bang Theory" episode which dealt wtth how a major character dealt with his absentee father, who abandoned him and his mother when he was nine years old. I was abandoned by my biological father at less than 5 months and raised by my great aunt and Uncle. My Mother did this out of love, at the age of 18. I thank her for it, because I have always known who she was, and what she sacrificed for me to have a better life for both of us. Maybe the world is a better place because of my existence, maybe not. But I believe that Government should have no control over personal decisions, including the decision of whether or not to have a child.
Government has no business in deciding what is or is not moral. And when I look at the list of elected Government officials using their power for personal agendas, I am further convinced that all moral choices should be left to the individual. As a whole, I see no level of government, Federal, State, or local, acting morally. So why let them be our moral guidepost?
Reality is that our elected officials, with few exceptions, only act in their own best interests, not that of those of us they are supposedly serving. Maybe in November of 2013, or even in May, the electorate may move to change all that.
I am running an algorithm on the prospects of a ten person race for Allentown City Council. The first results were absolutely outside the box, with 4 incumbents losing. So I am running it again. I will post about it soon. With all the challengers at the city, Township, and County level, one thing I am sure of is that voters are ticked off. To what degree remains to be seen. Friday I am having a vision exam. I hope that helps make my vision clearer, but I can't help the rest of you......Yet.
Government has no business in deciding what is or is not moral. And when I look at the list of elected Government officials using their power for personal agendas, I am further convinced that all moral choices should be left to the individual. As a whole, I see no level of government, Federal, State, or local, acting morally. So why let them be our moral guidepost?
Reality is that our elected officials, with few exceptions, only act in their own best interests, not that of those of us they are supposedly serving. Maybe in November of 2013, or even in May, the electorate may move to change all that.
I am running an algorithm on the prospects of a ten person race for Allentown City Council. The first results were absolutely outside the box, with 4 incumbents losing. So I am running it again. I will post about it soon. With all the challengers at the city, Township, and County level, one thing I am sure of is that voters are ticked off. To what degree remains to be seen. Friday I am having a vision exam. I hope that helps make my vision clearer, but I can't help the rest of you......Yet.
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