Collateral damages: In Syria, the road to Hell is paved with good intentions

All over Syria, people are dying. It has been going on for a couple of years now

Let us be honest with ourselves. All we really know is that the evidence is pretty convincing that a chemical weapon was used on civilians There were likely close to 1500 people killed in the use of that weapon, and the photographic evidence shows very clearly that at least more than 400 of the dead were children.  And this was likely not the First time a weapon like this has been used there.

    Do we really know who did it? I ask that question because I think before we play judge, jury and executioner, we damn well better be sure. We know that Syrian rebel forces have captured government facilities around the country. Are we absolutely sure that some rogue Al Queda element could not have done this precisely to provoke the United States and its' allies into a blundered involvement in this slaughter?

      I want to be clear, I have no use for the President of Syria. For decades his family has supported the Hezbollah folks who have launched numerous attacks against United States forces around the world. I remember a marine barracks in Beirut getting bombed in October 1983, killing 240 Marines.
   That was courtesy of Hezbollah, one of the players in the Syrian nightmare playing out live on Al-Jazeera and CNN nightly.

     "The Enemy of my Enemy is my Friend." That is terrible logic to try and apply here.

      It is way too easy for politicians to say stupid things about redlines being crossed, and much harder to find the morale high ground to actually do something about it.
      Both sides in Syria repulse me, and part of me wants to see them wipe each other out. But the other part of me knows that as members of humanity, we have a morale duty to protect the Innocents involved and try to find a way to end the bloodshed. I have never met a child that asked to be born into bloodshed.

      Which brings me to my sticking point. Since the Camp David Accords in 1979 that brought peace between Egypt and Israel, the Syrian Government has been busy building up its' own formidable Chemical weapons stockpile to counter a threat it perceived from Israel's Nuclear weapon's program.
     Who helped them with that? Why, Great Britain, Germany, Russia and China, for the most part. That's right, Industry in those countries made a tidy profit helping the Syrians build their arsenal.

   And that's why I think those responsible for giving them those weapons should take the lead in doing something about it. Why does America have to take the lead on this? We are going to be busy enough keeping Israel from getting drawn into the mess. In a crazy side note, Israel has been supplying medical care to Syrian refugees since the fighting started. Compassion knows no borders, why can't common sense?

       Russia is Syria's biggest ally, and the Chinese one of the biggest suppliers of missile technology and equipment. They should be the ones pressing to solve this problem, and getting advice from us, not the other way around. Assad is their guy, they should take responsibility for him.

     Unfortunately, I don't think that will ever happen. I also think we are damned if we do, and damned if we don't

     With all the war crap we got into under the previous President, I never feared the threat of a possible globally involved strife as I do now. You look at the history of what happened at Sarejevo in 1914, and how one assassination brought about a global conflict. Then compare that to Damascus today. I am not a conspiracy theorist or Rapture nut, but I see some serious political dominoes lining up to fall.
      The killing has to stop, so we are going to have to launch Cruise missiles and kill more people, some innocent, some not so Innocent. It reminds me of Vietnam, where we destroyed Villages to save them.

         I don't know what we should do, but I don't want to see us go down that road again. The road is once again paved with good intentions, and most assuredly it is still the road to Hell.

My Connection to former Ohio Governor Gilligan.

The former Governor of Ohio, John Gilligan, passed away Thursday. While he was Governor of Ohio, he lived at an address on Parkway boulevard, less than 2 miles from where I Lived just across the railroad track, in East Columbus, Ohio.  I attended St Charles Borromeo Preparatory School in the late 1970's, where I had a teacher who had a great influence on my life. Dr. Michael J. Gilligan, the governors' son. I had him for English my Sophomore year, and British Literature my Junior year. One of the reasons I started writing a Journal when I was 15 years old was because of the urging of Dr. Gilligan. I wrote a paper about a how the song "Hummingbird" by the Duo Seals and Crofts had influenced me, and he gave me an A. He encouraged my literary interests, and I continued to write everyday, including my time in College at Ohio State University, and especially my several years overseas in Military service.
    I  even got to meet Dr. Gilligan's younger sister Kathy once when she stopped by our campus. That would be Kathy Sebelius, former governor of Kansas and presently a cabinet Secretary for Presient Obama. That is my 6 degrees of separation story. I doubt any of them would ever remember me, but I remember them. May he rest in peace. He made difficult decisions in a difficult time and took responsibility for them. It is a shame so many of today's political elected can't follow his example.

So Friday, I get a call from my Congressman Charlie Dent

  Yes it was an automated call, but it was a call. It invited me to come to the railroad station in Kutztown at 1:00 PM on Monday, August 26th for a Town Hall meeting. It is taking place at the Railroad station in the 100 block of Railroad street. I am a registered Democrat, my Congressman is a Republican. But my Congressman is also the rightfully, legally elected representative of Pennsylvania's 15th Congressional district, and I respect him. I do wish we had a member of my political party as a representative, but I respect the opinion of my neighbors, and I respect Mr. Dent. I have approached Mr. Dent and his office numerous time with issues that are personal to many of my fellow veterans, and he and his office has always done their best to resolve them. I honestly believe that Mr. Dent is not a "PARTISAN" member of Congress. He represents ALL the people of the 15th fairly. There are times I wish he were more in tune with my views, especially when it comes to healthcare, but I will not disparage a man who takes the time to hear and discuss differing points of view.
    Anyway, Monday, August 26th, there is a Town Hall meeting with our Congressman in Kutztown. I encourage all of you to go, because I will be hard at work in a warehouse, earning money to pay my share of our staggering debt.

Not Neccesarily the news....or is it?

         If you ever want to read a great story on just how all the media goes about manipulating us read this story about how ESPN uses questionable stories to create a news cycle about an issue that has no importance whatsoever. ESPN created a BULLSH#T story about San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick completely out of thin air.
        And what should really get you thinking about the mainstream media is a news story today that NBC Television has an episode of "Law and Order: Special Victims Unit" coming out this fall that has a White Chef based character based on Paula Deen, shooting an unarmed young Black man who she perceives as following her on the street. NBC admits the young black man character is based on Trayvon Martin, who was unarmed when killed by George Zimmerman in Florida last year. They are even PROMOTING the episode already. Read about it here.
        So we have one national media outlet creating news, and another using news to create so called "Fiction." 
   Am I the only one to wonder just how blurred the lines really are? NBC is plainly smushing together two real events to create a fictional story that will raise ratings for a show and earn them money.
   Meanwhile, ESPN is using real people to create events and situations that are really nothing but the opinions of their sport personalities to drive a news story they created, raise ratings, and create revenue.
         So what is news, and what isn't? Can anybody tell the difference anymore? What is news, and what is not?

Why did Scott Ott resign his job in April of 1995?

  On April 4 of 1995, Scott Ott resigned his job as a Part time School bus driver in the North Kansas City School district. On April 14th, at an executive session of the school board, he was given his job back. At the time, Scott Ott was the "Pastor" of the Siloam Springs Baptist Church in  Excelsior Springs Missouri, located in the 400 block of Benton Avenue in Excelsior Springs.
    According to transcripts at the Midwest Bible College in Kansas City, Scott Ott only accumulated 57 0f the 81 credits needed to earn a degree in Divinity. I spoke to a gentleman by the name of Earl McElwee, who is presently the pastor of that church. He told me that Scott Ott was well liked by the parishioners, and that they were sorry to see him go. I interviewed three people who were working as Employees at the North Kansas City School district at the time  of his resignation/reinstatement, and what they told me about him and his attitude at the time gave me pause. So before I write something that could be, for all intents and purposes, taken out of context, I would like to give Mr. Ott a chance to give his side of the story. Why did he resign, and under what circumstances did he ask for reinstatement? What really happened? Mr Ott has not even mentioned on his resume that he was a pastor of a church. Mr. McElwee explained to me that you don't need to be an ordained minister to be a pastor as a Baptist, if the congregation accepts you.
       Mr. McElwee also told me that Scott told them the reason he was leaving was that he was homesick.
   
   This is relevant because Mr Ott wants to run Lehigh County. In my opinion he bailed out on a church in a dying small town, and acts like it never happened. It isn't even on his resume. So what were the circumstances? I ask this because he moved from Excelsior Springs with his wife to an address in Independence Missouri after leaving Excelsior Springs, and for the first time, registered to vote in 2000. He didn't go back to Pennsylvania, he just moved to another county. A check of state voter records shows that Scott Ott lived in Missouri from 1993 to 2001, but only registered to vote once, in the 2000 November election. That vote was cast as being registered from an address in the 9500 block of Winner Street in Independence MO. I asked the Election office in Liberty Missouri to check his name against all records statewide, and that is all they had. Once again, much like Mr. Ott's many addresses in PA, the Winner Street address appears to be a short term rental.
     Who is Scott Ott, and why doesn't he want to own property? These are fair questions. maybe Mr. Ott has a good explanation. Here is a chance to give it.
   And before anyone starts ranting incoherently, let it be known that I spent three days IN the KC area interviewing former coworkers of Scott Ott and checking his employment records. I even visited the offices of the Excelsior Springs Standard, and talked to a 80 something young women who has worked and lived in Excelsior Springs all her life, including more than 60 years at the newspaper.
   She pointed me to several people in town to Interview concerning Mr. Ott's time there, including Mr. McElwee. I believe my sources are telling me the truth, but before I post their version, I want Mr. Ott's side. Excelsior Springs is a beautiful little   town, but it is on the decline.  I just want to know why he stopped trying to achieve his Divinity degree, and why he bailed on Siloam Springs Baptist Church. If he bailed on them because things got to tough, how can we be sure he won't bail on Lehigh County when it gets rough here? People gave Don Cunningham hell for walking away, will they be just as tough on Scott Ott?
    

I can see clearly now, the cataracts are gone

  It has been almost three months since I published. The reason being that I had cataracts in both eyes that made reading extremely difficult. I had surgery on my right eye in April. It helped, but my left eye was just as bad, and when I tried to read for any extended period of time, headaches would ensue.
   I always thought that my left eye was my "GOOD" eye, but I learned quickly that was not the case.
   And because of Insurance and work issues, I had to wait until recently to have my other eye done.
   But now that it is done I am grateful to God Almighty for my sight, something that even a decade ago might not have been possible. Because of 20 minutes of surgery, I have 20/20 vision in both eyes, and can read the computer screen comfortably, even if I have to adjust it to 125%.
    The left Eye was harder, My surgeon told me the cataract was tougher to destroy, and took longer, and collateral effect was that my cornea experienced some swelling, and it may take longer for the sight to come around. But three days after, it has, and I thank God.
   It amazed me that they used compressed air to obliterate my cataracts and then insert implants for my lenses. I have two cards for my wallet, one for each eye. And I was kept awake during both procedures so they could give me direction on where to look. Even more amazingly, I now have 20/20 vision in each eye.

     I wrote almost everyday, but I made so many typos it was embarrassing, So I held off publishing anything for two or more days, and in most cases, when I wrote about something, it seemed dated, so I didn't post it. That is about to change. I can see clearly now.

So they held a primary and less than 10% came

   The first thing I want to point out is to the Scott Ott attack dogs. There are 76,620 Republicans registered to vote in Lehigh County. Scott Ott won with less than 10% of the eligible Republicans voting for him.. 6,837, to be exact. You still want to cream about his mandate? I don't fricking think so. All it proves to me is that in all primaries, the Extremists of any party have an inordinate amount of power. Lets see how old Scotty appeals to the 108.082 Democrats come November. All we need is a 25% turnout, and old Scotty is big time toast. But I am not holding MY BREATH.

     But the big story is in Allentown, where my predictions were WRONG. That's right, WRONG. I gave far too much credit to the dissatisfied folks who screamed about how everything Ed Pawlowsi did was wrong. the truth is, out of 42,652 registered Democrats, it appears only 2800 to 2900 made it to the polls to vote.  Let me be generous and round that up to 3000. If I do that, it still means barely 7% of the eligible democrats showed up on election day. The proletariat would be proud.
   Hell, even in the City Council race, only one appointed incumbent, Jeff Glazier, lost, and that was to Allentown Police Captain Darryl Hendricks, soon to be a recipient of the overly generous police pension that is forcing the city to lease off its' water operations. The rest of the Challengers got destroyed, as turnout fell even lower than past years when there were only three seats open on council.

  I hate to admit it, but the naysayers may be right. Democracy in Allentown is a formality, and may be dead as we know it.
   Here is what makes people angry with me: As much as I dislike the methods, Ed Pawlowski is moving the city forward. He is addressing the City's issues. You may not like his methods, but he is doing that, and if voter turnout is any indication, the inhabitants like where it is heading.
Who  needs transparency when the voters (AND THE MORNING CALL,  or WFMZ 69), don't Care?

     
        Let me be clear; I don't like the methods, but I understand. I am a resident of the burbs, but I see he is making lemonade with turnips. God help him, but he is trying.

    I have the numbers from all the races, and I am analyzing them. In my next post, I will look at Republican turnout in the city and the burbs, and look at how Scott Ott won. I privately told people it was a 55% to 45% race3 for Ott, but though it could shift. It did not. Stay Tuned.

A few observations and predictions on Northampton County Races

    Here we are, 10 days before the primary, and the Northampton County Executive and Bethlehem Mayoral races are still in doubt.

  That's right, I said that they are still in doubt. Lets begin with the County Executive race.

   If it were held today, I predict somewhere between 18,500 and 21,500 Democrats will vote in the race. That would be at least 3000 more than voted in the Stoffa/Reibman race in 2005. If it were held today, Callahan would get 38%  (between 7030 and 8170 votes),  McClure 34% (between 6290 and 7110 votes), and Reibman 28% (Between 5180 and 6020 votes).

      With ten days left, there is still a great deal of room for any of the three to either fall back or surge ahead. I think the race is Callahan's to lose. The problem for me is that when I look at the overall picture, I see Reibman and Callahan engaging in a campaign of mutual assured destruction. Their numerous negative attacks on one another reminds me of the adage that "If you set out on revenge, you should dig two graves."

     The tactics have allowed Councilman Lamont McClure to quietly plow forward into contention.  Someone pointed out to me last week that McClure and Reibman were getting savaged in the local blogosphere. I responded that I would bet less than one percent of the participating voters in Northampton had ever read my blog, let alone certain others. Of the 20,000 likely voters in the Dem primary,  Even if 5% ever read one of the blogs covering the Council race, that would be 1000 voters, and do you really think that many people read all these blogs?  I give a few blogs that kind of credit, but not mine. That's why when people cry foul over my presentation of Scott Ott's own dysfunctional blog ravings, I laugh at them. They doth protest too much.

 What really matters In Northampton is the continued negative mail and media campaign. It has made a psychological impression on the race. I can't help but wonder if a chunk of voters goes to he polls, looks at the choices and votes for the guy that has the least negatives. That gives McClure a shot on election day. It is never over until all the votes are counted, and while we can make educated guesses, if we were educated by idiots (the candidates themselves), there's a chance any guess is idiotic.

      Now moving on to the Bethlehem Mayoral race between Willie Reynolds and Bob Donchez.
      In 2005, the last time John Callahan had a challenger, 3850 voter participated in Bethlehem, and Callahan won with 2300+ votes. In 2009, Callahan was unopposed, and only received 2300 votes.
    Bethlehem's population and registration has stayed fairly static in the last decade, so I feel pretty sure that even with several high profile issues locally, (Garbage fees/Casino payments/budget shenanigans) Bethlehem City turnout by Democrats will not exceed 4000 voters.

   My personal algorithm has Donchez winning with 53% of the vote, but that was before Reynolds got a much publicized endorsement from the local paper. I can't ignore that Bethlehem has a recent track record of electing young progressives as their mayors. Reynolds would fit right in  behind Don Cunningham and John Callahan. All logic says he should not win, but sometimes logic has to be defied. I think Reynolds has the momentum and will win by a narrow margin Not 500 votes, how about 50?

    

If I were the candidate running against Scott Ott for executive.....

   I would have a piece in the mail today highlighting his views on the Terrorist attack on Boston. If I were Dean Browning, who happens to be vying with Ott for the Republican County Executive nomination, I would send a copy of Ott's Post to every Lehigh County Republican Party Committee member and ask that they condemn it. I would also create a campaign mailer targeting supervoter vets and your true believer Republicans.
   If they give Scott Ott the nomination after this, it will be a kiss of death for R's across the county at any level. Because I guarantee you, Come November the Democratic party will make sure every Democrat in the County will know about Scott Ott and more will go to the polls to support their candidate over OTT than recent memory. We could see Cunningham over Ervin like turnout.
   Tom Muller is a good candidate, and knows how to manage. Scott Ott knows how to insult them. What do you think voters will do with that kind of choice in November?

Curious George near Hellertown? Another slow news day in the Valley

    Because there is absolutely no real news to report, the big story today is that a Morning Call staffer was walking her dog and thought she saw a monkey. Because wandering wild monkees are as great a threat to democracy and our way of life as terrorists, this is front page news.

   Read the story here.  No word confirming other possible sightings of a Monkey wearing a blonde wig, stilletto Pumps, and driving a Black Toyota Rav 4 being sighted at a  nearby firearms range.
   Though there are reports that the monkee is a pretty good shot with handguns, better than many political candidates.
   Just like CNN, we will report if we have a breaking news update.

   For those of you wondering, this is satire.

Scott Ott's take on the Boston Marathon bombing FOR REAL

  Last Monday was a dark day in American history. But Scott Ott found the humor in it. I was born in Boston. Numerous members of my family live there, and my Uncle had a heart valve replacement Wednesday at Beth Israel Deaconess Hospital. The same hospital where many of the bombing victims and now the lone surviving suspect are currently being cared for.

   Read Scott Ott's mind numbingly insensitive humor post from his Scrappleface blog here.

  What Mister Ott has written about my hometown makes me angry. It is my humble opinion that he is a heartless piece of CRAP. But I think you readers should read his post, and make your own decisions.

   Terrorist Bombings of American Cities are not funny. PERIOD.

Scott Ott's personal writings show a disturbing attitude towards Teachers, among others

   I make no apologies for reading Scott Ott's Scrappleface blog or any of his entries at Town Hall or the Washington Examiner. The man has written pages of what he calls humor or satire, that shows a basic lack of respect for many of the people he would be governing over should he be elected County Executive. People are furious  with me for pointing out Scott Ott's own words, that he has posted. They are attacking me because that's what people do when they can't defend the truth.

   Maybe he should not have written any of  it? If it wasn't there, then we couldn't read it, but it is.
  
   I have friends and relatives who are teachers in various school systems across America. They are all good people who work hard in difficult conditions to try and educate the next generation. Demeaning them does not solve the funding problems that all entities are starting to face.

       On October 30, 2007 Mr Ott wrote a post on his Scrappleface blog where he referred to America's Public Schools as "DROP OUT FACTORIES".  He also claimed that 40% of American High School students drop out.
   I would like to know where he got those numbers. They seem outrageous, and they are.

    In another entry from Scrappleface, on February 24, 2004, Mr Ott referred to the National Education Association, (NEA) as an extortionist, monopolistic cabal.

   In an August 19, 2002 Scrappleface entry, Mr Ott suggested the NEA was responsible for "American Provincialism", "Narrow mindedness" and "Bigotry".

   I know a lot of teachers, and I can't find one of them who ever taught their students to think that way. That is of course, unless they asked their students to read Mr Ott's writings. Then they might be able to discuss those topics pretty thoroughly.

  I can't decide what of Mr Ott's published literary humor to post next. Should it be how he feels about blacks? Abortion? Planned parenthood? Or maybe his take on the Terri Schiavo controversy in 2005, where he tried to make light of the tragedy by writing about a Schiavo diet book. On february 22, 2005, Mr Ott wrote: "with the Atkins diet fad waning, obese American women have embraced a new book, "The Terri Schiavo Diet: No Willpower Required." pushing it to the top of the New York Times Bestseller list. The book, penned by a ghostwriter for Mrs. Schiavo, promises "Dramatic weight loss and life change without any need to make personally difficult decisions."

        Scott Ott thinks he was being funny. What would he find funny if he was elected County Executive?
      Do even the more moderate members of Lehigh County Republicans want to take a chance and find out?
     I know the Democrats don't.

What Lehigh County Executive Candidate Scott Ott really feels about Military Veterans (In his own damning words)

   East Penn School Board Member Julian Stolz, someone I know and like despite disagreeing with much of his politics, has said some pretty controversial things lately in Social media that have put him in some hot water. Julian is opinionated but in my opinion, it is all much ado about nothing. He is young, and just getting started.

   But Lehigh County Executive Candidate Scott Ott has a plethora of colorful quotes and opinions that he has issued for public consumption on the Internet in the last decade. Some of this stuff is so disturbing you can't believe he actually wrote or said it.  If someone is running for elected office, you want to believe that they will take the job seriously.You also want to believe that they realize they represent everyone, not just the few that voted for them, and they have a duty not only to serve all, but RESPECT ALL.  After reading through Mr. Ott's so called "satirical" views concerning many different groups, none of which he either belongs to or has affection for, I am sure of one thing: There's a whole bunch of us that he looks down upon in society. The only purpose we serve in his eyes is to be ridiculed and disparaged. Those are not things most people look for in their leaders. In fact, it is the kind of thing I saw in most cowardly bullies.

    I am a United States Army Veteran, a member of the American Legion, and I don't think too highly of would be politicians/half assed so called journalists who mock military Veterans and the plight many of them face after service. So today's entry will concentrate on what Scott Ott erroneously thinks is funny about Veterans.
    In April 2009, during his first run for County Executive, Scott Ott suggested in the Washington Examiner where he was a regular contributor that Democrats view war veterans as poorly educated and deeply troubled. I know Mr Ott has a degree in Journalism from Penn State, but nowhere in his resume did I see any doctorates in Psychology. I also didn't see any military service time on there, so I can't figure out where he got the qualifications to make such judgements about military personnel, or what makes him think he knows where we came from or what our education levels are. I could argue all day on that point, but instead I want to remind everyone of one thing that all Military members do:
   We Stand ready to defend your freedoms. One of those freedoms is the right to free speech. I will defend to the death Mr Ott's right to say and/or write incredibly insensitive things.
     But I will also exercise my right to point out that I find much of what he has written and claims to be "satire" to be incredibly insensitive to the plight of many military veterans.  I am going to use two instances in the not so distant past to illustrate my point.
  
      Here is the first quote, from a Washingtom Examiner piece in April 2009:
     "After the Department of Homeland Security sparked a firestorm of protest from right-wing extremists over a nine page report on the "resurgence in radicalization and recruitment among right-wing extremists groups, DHS chief Janet Napolitano announced today that her department would soon release a similar report on leftist groups via twitter. The "Rightwing Extremism" report warned that the current economic crisis, and the election of a black President, could inspire returning war veterans and others to join violent groups plotting against their own nation......Meanwhile Napolitano said she would meet with veterans groups to apologize for what many saw as a disparaging characterization in the report on right-wing extremists. "I would say that I am sorry if some of our deeply troubled war vets misunderstood our report because of their limited education" Ms Napolitano said. "After all they joined the military because they had no other options. We at Homeland Security should be sensitive to folks who didn't have the benefit of a liberal arts education, or the kind of wisdom that comes from high level policy meetings in Washington D. C." (Scott Ott, Examiner April 17, 2009)

      Mr Ott took a legitimate news report on right wing extremists groups in America and twisted it into what he thought was a humorous piece that demeaned the new Obama administration.
       Mr Ott thinks this is funny. This is his idea of satire, mocking Military veterans.This was not a one time thing, In the years before John McCain became the Republican nominee for President in 2008, he was a constant butt of Mr Ott's humor.

 To further illustrate Mr. Ott's lack of compassion, or disdain for any veteran who has served, let's go back to March 2007 when Scott Ott published his TOP TEN REASONS TO NOMINATE JOHN MCCAIN FOR PRESIDENT on his SCRAPPLEFACE blog
:
   10. Years as POW in Solitary Confinement prepared him for isolation of White House "Bubble"
     9.Won't accept Presidential paycheck, since at 72 he can live off Social Security
     8.More exciting presidential news conferences as reporters vie to light his fuse
     7.To beat him, Libs will have to get through his gang of 14
     6.Unlike Senators, Presidents have term Limits
     5. He has a lock on the black vote, because his middle name is Sidney, Like Poitier
     4.Won't surrender to anyone, since war injury prevents raising hands above head.
     3.No longer despises "Agents of intolerance" on whacko religious right
     2. Definition of "Surge" starts with 200,000 new boots, and Al Sadr dangling from a rope
     1. Not beholden to the Republican Party or Other Special interest groups.

   Scott Ott published this on his Scrappleface Blog on March 1, 2007.

     John McCain is a decorated War hero who spent more than 5 years in a Vietnamese POW camp under brutal conditions. He has served Our country all his life, and while I have different politics, I respect him. How is this funny? The entire list offends me, but number 4 is so blatantly disturbing that I cringe every time I read it. How do you mock a man's horrific war injury?
   On this list alone, Ott mocks POW's, Social Security Recipients, and African Americans and makes it looks unnaturally easy.

   Mr Ott has a right to say whatever he wants, but what a person says and does also shows a great deal about what kind of person they are, and just where they see you in the scheme of things. Mr. Ott has shown me in his writings that he does not respect those who have served this country, among others.

   Mr Ott continually presents himself as a good christian and follower of the word of Jesus.
   I wonder what Jesus would say about his attitude towards our wounded heroes?
   I would urge all my brother and sister veterans to take a pause before considering voting for this man at any level. He seems to think it all is a great big joke.  Well it isn't. We need serious leaders who know what they are doing, and treat ALL the people they are elected to serve with respect. I do not believe Scott Ott will do that, and I guarantee you, come November, there will be mailings to every Possible Lehigh County Voter pointing out how Scott Ott feels about each and every one of them.
  
      Veterans are just one of the groups Mr. Ott has mocked. I don't trust any person who disparages an American hero such as John McCain, or jokingly refers to any of my brother or sister veterans as deeply troubled because of our "so called" limited education. The plight of veterans returning home from the last decade of wars is no joking matter. Veterans are not uneducated, as a matter of fact, the military puts a high priority on education for all personnel, making higher education opportunities available for active duty members even when serving in the field. But Mr. Ott wouldn't know that, the closest he gets to any military personnel, past or present, is when he is trying to figure out a way to cut their services locally, so he can honor his pledge to kill off all useful government.
  
      We need leaders at the local level dedicated to making sure services are available to area veterans who desperately need them. Mr. Ott has vocally expressed his desire many times to refuse any and all pass through funding from higher levels of government that would fund those services. We can not trust him as County Executive to ensure he will do the right thing and take care of those in need.
    Veterans services are not an entitlement program, they are keeping a promise made to those who have served. The only thing Mr Ott seems to promise is that he will continue to mock us to further his political career and agenda.

If Newtown is not the tipping point, what the hell is?

  In December, 20 children were mowed down by a madman in Newtown Connecticut. Back in 2006, there was an amish school shooting here in PA that made all the news. Remember that? Probably not.
   We Americans seem to have become desensitized to violence, and from what I have seen in the past thirty years, there is very little evidence to refute that thought. I remember in the late 1980's as the drug crack brought violent warfare to every American city. Young  Americans died at a horrifying rate, but it was poor minorities, so nobody relly cared. There was a lot of political rhetoric, but the bloodshed went on into the 1990's.
   I have come to believe that we Americans just don't give a damn. As long as it is not our family member, we will profess our sorrow, offer our prayers, and move on, taking our kids to Dave and Busters or the Iron Pigs game.  We never believe it will happen to us.
    The thing is, Fate is the hunter. You really don't know where the next whack job will strike, and most Americans are willing to gamble it won't effect them.
    I don't know what to say, but I am tired of watching innocent children die because of nutjobs. I don't have an answer, but I find it absolutely irresponsible that no one is willing to take the lead and find a starting point.
    I disagree with Senator Pat Toomey on so many issues, but I respect him for trying to do something on this one. It Took courage. Too bad the rest of Congress didn't have any.

Some insight on the ballot refusal of the Allentown Water issue petitions

  If you read the blogs and the so called local media, you would think that the head of the Lehigh County Voter Registration office, Tim Benyo, was responsible for the water issue not getting on the ballot. Some folks mistakenly were lead to believe by uninformed sources that Benyo reviewed the petitions and found there to be a conflict between state and local laws, which kept Benyo from putting the question on the ballot, There is even a belief that he did nothing to notify the petition gatherers of their pending legal issues.

    All of this would be wrong

    You see, I have this nasty habit of asking questions and trying to find the truth. I am not sure who told what to whom, I only have the media reports and what I have read elsewhere. But I also have my firsthand investigation and my in person questioning of the parties involved.

    When you want to see petitions, usually you go to County Voter registration. But this time, the big secret is that THE PETITIONS NEVER LEFT THE CITY CLERK'S OFFICE. Tim Benyo never laid eyes on them. All Benyo ever got was a communication from the City Clerk that there was a legal conflict that prevented the issue from being on the ballot. After receiving that, he kicked it upstairs at County for the legal eagles to handle. To blame REPUBLICAN Tim Benyo and claim he is an agent of dark conspiratorial forces is untrue. He, and no one else at his office, ever laid eyes on the water issue petitions.

    So I went to the City Clerk's office and asked to see them. The only person there was a receptionist who wanted my name and purpose for seeing them. She retrieved the petitions for me after I made it plain  that I knew they had to be there......somewhere.

       She retrieved them from a cabinet from which she had to remove several piles of files to get to them.
      These things were buried on the bottom drawer under God Knows what in the City Clerk's office. I did look through them, and they were the originally submitted petitions. the kicker is I already had access to copies of the petitions from a third party and knew what I was looking for.  The receptionist told me I could only look at the petitions, if I wanted copies I would have to file a right to know and probably pay for them.
   
     So after 15 minutes paging through them and verifying they were the real deal, I went back downstairs and filed a Right To know Request asking for copies of the original petitions.

    I also learned at that time that the power burning plant petition folks had fallen approximately 800 signatures short in their efforts for a ballot question.

     If the water issue people have questions about what happened, they should start and end their investigation at the City Clerk's office. That is where all the evidence leads, and where the petitions are, literally buried. The Lease is pretty much a done deal, and they should accept that. But the actions of the Allentown City Clerk raise ethical questions on many levels. The Clerk has an obligation to do his job properly, in this case, his neglect in not notifying the petition gatherers of a potential conflict may have been perfectly within legal bounds, but rings loudly of political maneuverings. The Clerk should be above that,
    If I were an Allentown resident, I would ask City Council to review the procedure used by the Clerk in handling and verifying the petitions, and what measure are in place to enable the citizens to correct any mistakes or perceived deficiencies that might occur. A mechanism exists for candidates, isn't there one for potential ballot questions? There must be, and if there isn't, there should be.

Velez is on, but not for the reason I thought.

     I thought Kim Velez would get back on the ballot because of a technicality in the withdrawal process. But Judge Varrichio, after hearing all the evidence of what transpired, ruled that it was reasonable to believe that Kim Velez withdrew under duress, and gave everybody an out. I have already made my argument concerning her signatures, but that doesn't matter. What matters is that the true spirit of Democracy was served.
     You may not like the rules of electioneering as they exist, but they were played by all sides in this to the hilt. Mike Fleck did not do anything illegal. Tim Brennan did what his client asked him to do. Kim Velez is back on the ballot.
    Judge all of them however you want, but Miss Velez still has to get her message out and get more than 2500 Allentown Democratic Voters to push that on screen button next to her name.
    She has six weeks, and as I do all candidates, I wish her well.

45 Days from election day, here are my Allentown Democratic City Council Primary predictions

   Right off the bat, I have Kim Velez in this. I have talked to several local lawyers who think Bill Platt will win on a point of law. So let's move on.  We have nine candidates and we have four spots. Joseph Davis  does not matter because he is running unopposed to finish the two years left on now State Representative Mike Schlossberg's term.  Here, for all intents and purposes, using lots of solid data and analyzing trends, is what all the voodoo says to me.

      I believe that democratic Voter turnout on May 21st will be between 5200 and 5600 voters.
     So that you can understand how I came to that number, I will explain the variables I looked at, The biggest is past voter turnout in municipal primaries since 2005.
     In 2005, just over 7000 Democrats went to the polls in a heated mayors race. Yet only 6.675 of them voted in the mayors race. Pawlowski had 2692, Sam Bennett 2154, and Louie Bellettieri 1824. The Allentown Democratic Primary that thrust Ed Pawlowski to power was decided by less than 20% of the city's registered Democrats. To further my point about lack of voter interest, even in a contested Mayoral race year, I point to the City Council primary results. Voters could choose 4 candidates, meaning there could have been over 28,000 total votes cast for the seven city Council candidates. Believe it or not, there were only 17,095 votes cast, meaning an undervote of over 10,000 opportunities to vote existed. Those votes were spread out over the 7 candidates, with the highest total being 3460, and the lowest 1267.
    One point of interest in that batch is that Julio Guridy,while gathering 3,095 (and that gave him 2nd place) in that year, is on the ballot for reelection this year.
    In 2007 there were 5 Democratic candidates for three seats. There was also a contested Controller's race, which helps us gage interest. In the Controllers race, 4404 votes were cast by just over 4800 Democrats that came out. In the city Council race, those 4800 Democrats could have cast a total of 14,400 votes for the five candidates, Instead, the 5 candidates only accumulated 10,211 votes between them.
   In 2009, Ed Pawlowski ran unopposed, and 7 candidates ran for four seats on City Council, I have exact turnout numbers for 2009, and only 4332 democrats in Allentown went to the polls. That gave a 100% potential of 17,328 votes in the City Council race, yet the five candidates only garnered 13,840, an undervote of 3,488 votes, or almost 20%
    In 2011, it got worse. only 3513 registered Democrats came out for the primary, and the five candidates only garnered a total of 7563 votes out of a potential 10,539, for an undervote of 28.2%

   So lets look at this again:
   2005 Turnout approx 7000, actual mayor votes 6670, City Council votes 17093 of 28,000
  2007 turnout approx 4800 Controller votes 4404, City Council 10211 of 14,400
  2009 turnout was 4332, city council votes 13,840 of 17,328
  2011 turnout was 3513, city Council votes 7563 of possible 10539.

   Primary turnout in Allentown has been steadily declining, leading to fewer and fewer people making the decisions. The positive for candidates is that it makes the core group of true believers easier to identify and reach, the negative is that if you tick them off, you do so at your own peril

    Another key element is the bad read of the Democratic party of Latino voters, They are transient and not rooted in the community. They make up 30% of the voting age eligible population, but less than 5% votes in the municipal primary. Cynthia Mota came in 5th of five candidates in 2011, and got her seat thru appointment when Frank Concannon resigned. She shows up no better than 7th no matter how I run the numbers. And by transient, I mean that almost 30% of the Hispanic voters who voted in Allentown in 2008 did not vote in 2012. Where did they go? That is almost 800 voters. They either moved or died, and I'm voting for moved.

   My point is, Conventional wisdom about voter loyalty does not apply here.  But VOTER ANGER DOES.

   Originally, I had my estimate at a healthy 4400 to 4800 voters, but the core voters are angry about at least two big issues in Allentown, those being the handling of the ARENA NIZ and the Water lease. The Arena issue had me bumping turnout to the 4800 to 5200 level, and the water issue has me adding another 400 potential voters, to my present 5200 to 5600. Perhaps I am being a bit generous in thinking that the 4500 signatures gathered on the water petitions will result in about 400 Dems voting who wouldn't otherwise, but that number feels right, and sometimes you have to weigh your gut instinct.

     So here's what I see for the results May 22. If 5400 Dems show up at the polls, that gives a potential of 21,600 votes cast. I see about an 18% undervote, for a total number of votes cast of around 16,858 spread between 9 Candidates.

   My only true lock is Ray O'Connell with between 3100 and 2900 I think just over 50% of the voters will pick his name
    Second should be Jeff Glazier. Yes he is an appointee, but he was on The Allentown School board, his family had a business in the city for decades, and many old timers and long time city residents will  give him around 2500 to 2800, putting him somewhere between 2nd and 4th.

     Now comes the tough calls Carmen Bell is an Obama for America organizer who knows many of the grassroots people in Allentown. Police Officer Darryl Hendricks has great relations with all of Allentowns inner city Crime watch groups. Those two have deep community connections that should put them somewhere between 3rd and 6th. Alfonso Todd and Dave Melman are in there as well, but they just aren't quite as connected or well known in Allentown. I have a same problem  quantifying Melman;s name recognition that I have with Glazier, but Glazier's family history in the city bumps him up, while for some unknown reason Melman doesn't seem to have that. Alfonso Todd is putting out a street effort, and seems to be the only candidate appropriately using social media. He could bring several hundred new voters to the polls, but that is his only true shot at getting in the top four. They still have 45 days to make a stretch run, and I could see any of these  five candidates pulling ahead.

    I believe the cutoff between 4th and 5th place is going to be 2100 votes. I believe that you could see 5 candidates, Hendricks, Bell, Melman, Todd, and possibly Guridy within 100 votes either way  of that mark.It is all about turnout. I don't believe Mota will get 1500 votes. Velez, even if she gets on the ballot, has run no campaign other than raising hell over electoral procedures, as she should, but that is not enough.
    I actually separated some precincts in the District Three County Commissioners race, trying to see if having Juan Camacho on the ballot would help the Hispanics running for Allentown City Council, but it is 100 votes more at best, and split between Mota, Guridy and Velez.

      The problem, and the opportunity here, is that there will likely be a huge undervote of over 4000m as I noted earlier. Many voters will only punch one or two names rather than four. The opportunity for the lesser known candidates to grow name recognition is huge, mostly because the incumbents, while having it, have it in negative spades. Glazier and O'Connell will overcome it, Mota and Guridy likely will not.

    And that leads us into the uncomfortable territory of asking why Glazier and O'Connell get a pass for being perceived as part of the Mayor's bobbleheads, while Mota and Guridy don't. If you are an Allentown voter, go look in the mirror. My numbers tell me quite basically that O'Connell and Glazier's core ethnic base will show up on election day, while Guridy's, Mota's and Velez's will not. Whose fault is that? I will leave you with that thought.

    UPDATE 4/11/2013 11 PM:
       I noticed in the comments that someone asked where I got information on Dave Melman being on the School board. I inadvertently referred to Melman as a school board member, and he is not. I made a mistake while editing my post and used wording that would infer he had served on the ASD board. I apologize for my error, it was not intentional, but it was my error.

Velez Ballot Challenge scheduled

For those of you following this electoral primary soap opera at home, the next episode will be taking place at the Lehigh County Courthouse on Wednesday April 9th at 9:30 AM. Hearing the case will be the honorable Michelle Varrichio. Seating is festival style, first come first serve basis. If anyone attempts to sell you a ticket on the court house steps, ignore them. It is likely one of the local magisterial candidates trying to raise money for their campaign. Just kidding about that last line!

Proof Monkees are smarter than our current Republican Lehigh County Commissioner reform team

   Ran across this article on MSN news. Research showed that Monkees made smarter financial decisions than humans overall. That pretty much explains all our problems with government at every level, doesn't it?

Upon Further review.....

This is not the NFL, but earlier today I had evidence presented to me concerning my dismissal of one particular signature as invalid. Upon checking the 22 signatures I had categorized as completely invalid, I was able to find THREE that were valid. This still leaves the petitions short of the requirement, but that is a moot point, as it can not be revisited and the issue now is A) whether or not Miss Velez, as a candidate, felt intimidated or coerced to withdraw, or B) did the Lehigh County Voter registration office follow correct procedures in processing that withdrawal?
    Tim Benyo has always been a stickler for following the law, but after reading the complaint by Attorney Platt, it is fair to say there is a question of whether the process as it was carried out was in exact compliance with the appropriate laws. There is some gray area there, and that is why we have judges.

      As for calls for the head of Attorney Tim Brennan, there is no accusation at all in Attorney Platt's complaint that Brennan acted improperly. Mr Platt laid out the events and conversations in a precise timeline as provided by Miss Velez. After reading Miss Velez own account in the court documents, it is obvious she was more intimidated by the possibility of experiencing the challenge process than anything else. It is a scary thing running for office the first time, and she didn't have a support network of experienced people behind her to advise her. I have a feeling that once she gets back on the ballot, more than a few folks will reach out to give her a hand.

   Once again, Attorney Platt has wisely made the issue about a candidate that felt intimidated and possible perceived flaws in the withdrawal process. The validity of the petitions does not matter. It is all about undoing an act that undermines the electoral/ballot process, that is, Miss Velez' withdrawal under honest and understandable duress as a first time candidate unfamiliar with the process as a whole. She should not be punished for that..