I'm not the amazing Kreskin. I'm not psychic, nor do I pretend to be. ESPN has a show in during the day called "NUMBERS DON'T LIE". I am a serious believer in numbers and data. I don't agree with how some read certain statistics and data, especially when it comes to elections, turnout projections, and results. So I am slightly amused at all the excitement over two early Presidential primaries in two states, Iowa and New Hampshire, that I find hard to accept as a reasonable slice of the American consciousness.
Lets be real, in the United States of America, White people make up less than 50% of the population, but we are gauging aspiring Presidential hopefuls on two states that are damn near 90% white and make up less than 1.5% of the Population. Iowa has around 3 million and New Hampshire 1.3 Million, according to the last census. There's 308 million plus here now in all of the country. Why are we magnifying their importance?
Mitt Romney won and Ron Paul came in second. All the various messages aside, I believe that average Americans of every creed and color, White, Black, Hispanic, Christian, Muslim, Jew or whatever, will see thru all the political rhetoric and vote for what they see as the safest course to take.
And that course is likely to stay with our incumbent, whether some like it or not.
The politics of destruction that I see being waged by the far right of the Republican party to consolidate themselves in a primary is one that turns off the American public in the General.
As I watch the PBS coverage, I am struck by the pundits who felt that voters chose Romney because "while voters aren't enthusiastic for Romney, they chose General motors and played it safe."
The richer and older you were, the more likely Republicans were to vote for Romney. This from columnist Mark Shields. That's a telling observation. Romney got 45% of the vote from voters who made over $100,000. That's great, but in the general, how many Americans make that much these days?
Exit polls also showed voters chose Romney because they felt him electable.
This is all wonderful stuff, and if this were a football playoff game the pundits would be hypothesizing how great a chance Romney has in the upcoming Super Bowl In November.
I look at the Republican Primary as a bad season of a reality show. The networks are hyping false drama to build interest, so people will watch and care. But most viewers, er voters, don't really give a damn. The Republicans have not put forth any viable candidates with good alternatives to what President Obama is pushing. Lets be honest, Who in the Republican party do you see as Presidential?
There's no one that I see, and the Republicans have only themselves to blame for disappointing the American public.
chris, you seem to study these things much more than I do; however, a couple thoughts. although i do not question your numbers in regard to demographics, how many will vote, especially minorities, remains to be seen. secondly, it's fair to say that obama has not delivered on the expectation to be a great agent of change. these two shortcomings may combine to surprise you.
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