Thursday, November 8, 2012

Prediction Recap

  Okay, so here it is Thursday, and I picked all the winners correctly.

   So lets take a look at my margins.

    I wrote that I believed President Obama would be lucky to get 2.9 million votes. As of today on the Pa department of State Website, he received 2.86 million. Nailed that one, but I thought Romney would get around 2.7 million, slightly surpassing the 2.6+ million John McCain polled in 2008. On that I was way off, as Romney barely cracked 2.5 million votes.

   Overall, Pa turnout was down over half a million from 2008. Yes, turnout was heavy, but it DID NOT MATCH 2008. The big message here is that many Republicans were not as enthusiastic for Romney as I thought.

    In the United States Senate, I predicted Bob Casey 54 to 46 %. his final margin was 8.9%. I call that a winner.

    I also wrote that Kathleen Kane would defeat David Freed for Attorney General by a likely 55-45% margin.

    I hit that one dead on, but what really impressed me was Kathleen Kane being the only candidate on the Statewide ballot to crack the 3 million vote mark.  That was impressive.She outperformed President Obama at the top of the ticket by almost 150,000 votes. That can not be ignored.

   Finally, I think it was a foregone conclusion that Charlie Dent would win reelection to Congress. But I really didn't think it would be within 15 points, which it was (12.5% in fact). Dougherty ran a nonexistant campaign for the most part, and in many ways I think he may have hurt the Democrats below him.
   Charlie Dent won Lehigh County by 6,000 votes, while President Obama won Lehigh county by almost 11,000 votes. That is a 17,000 vote swing. Dent won by 37,500 votes in the district overall.

      Stay tuned, because one precinct alone kept Justin Simmons on the statehouse, and there is an interesting story behind it.

Monday, November 5, 2012

Democracy is a messy thing to predict, but here goes

   I spend far too much time gathering, reading, analyzing and running algorithms with data I have gathered from past elections.
    For instance I can tell you that in 2008, in the state of Pennsylvania, Barack Obama received 3,276,363 votes (54.4%), John McCain 2,655,885 (44.2%), and there were approximately 83,000 votes  spead across other less well known candidates. That means just over 6,100,000 Pennsylvanains participated in 2008.
     I used my uwn personal formula to come to my predictions, and I believe voter turnout in PA will not quite be as high as it was in 2008. I think turnout will be down at least 100,000 , maybe more. I will be surprised if turnout cracks 6 million again. I have factored in voter motivation, the weather being forecast as nearly 20 degrees colder than 2008, as well as public apathy towards the political process.

   That brings me to my prediction as to who will win in PA.

   I believe President Obama will not receive 3 million votes. I think he will be lucky to get 2.9 million. That leaves the door open for Mitt Romney . Romney will surpass John McCain's 2.6 million, and even George Bush's 2.7 million in 2004. His problem is that the same people who were energized to vote for Obama aren't switching sides, they are merely staying home. For Romney it all comes down to how many Obama voters in 2008 stay home, and to a smaller bit how many Independents that voted for Obama in 2008 go with Romney after ignoring McCain. Romney needs 4 out of 5 Independent voters (Close to 650,000 will vote in PA this year) to embrace him.

    I believe Obama will win PA, but by a margin of less than 3%. I think it will be a 51.5% - 48.5% tace at best for Obama. I think it will be less than 100,000 votes in difference either way, and it is not out of the question that Romney could win. I think turnout in the Dem sreonghold of Philly has to be at least 90% of what it was in 2008 for Obama, and if it isn't, all bets are off, I am watching three Pa Congressional districts for a read, Fattah.s, Fitzpatrick, and Critz, Those are three diverse districts for voter demographic under my criteria. Cumulatively they will give me a cross section of what the results will be.

    As for PA-15, Charlie Dent will win handily, Likely around 65% or more. I will do a post mortem on that race later. The other two biggiies I predict are  Casey over Smith 54 to 46% in the U.S. Senate, and Kathleen Kane by a similar margin, possibly greater, maybe 55-45% in the AG race.
  Now get out and vote!.