Thursday, November 8, 2012

Prediction Recap

  Okay, so here it is Thursday, and I picked all the winners correctly.

   So lets take a look at my margins.

    I wrote that I believed President Obama would be lucky to get 2.9 million votes. As of today on the Pa department of State Website, he received 2.86 million. Nailed that one, but I thought Romney would get around 2.7 million, slightly surpassing the 2.6+ million John McCain polled in 2008. On that I was way off, as Romney barely cracked 2.5 million votes.

   Overall, Pa turnout was down over half a million from 2008. Yes, turnout was heavy, but it DID NOT MATCH 2008. The big message here is that many Republicans were not as enthusiastic for Romney as I thought.

    In the United States Senate, I predicted Bob Casey 54 to 46 %. his final margin was 8.9%. I call that a winner.

    I also wrote that Kathleen Kane would defeat David Freed for Attorney General by a likely 55-45% margin.

    I hit that one dead on, but what really impressed me was Kathleen Kane being the only candidate on the Statewide ballot to crack the 3 million vote mark.  That was impressive.She outperformed President Obama at the top of the ticket by almost 150,000 votes. That can not be ignored.

   Finally, I think it was a foregone conclusion that Charlie Dent would win reelection to Congress. But I really didn't think it would be within 15 points, which it was (12.5% in fact). Dougherty ran a nonexistant campaign for the most part, and in many ways I think he may have hurt the Democrats below him.
   Charlie Dent won Lehigh County by 6,000 votes, while President Obama won Lehigh county by almost 11,000 votes. That is a 17,000 vote swing. Dent won by 37,500 votes in the district overall.

      Stay tuned, because one precinct alone kept Justin Simmons on the statehouse, and there is an interesting story behind it.

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