For at least the third time in twelve years, Dr. Percy Dougherty is going to get a Primary Challenger from his own Republican Party. In 2005, he barely beat off a challenge from current Upper Macungie Township employee and Lower Macungie resident Jim Lancsek, winning the primary with 1802 votes to Lancsek's 1578.
That's what happens when you try to govern for the good of all the people in your district, at least if you are a Republican.
Then in 2009, Percy fended off a challenge from a less formidable candidate, Mark Prinzinger, defeating him 1842 to 1329. Prinzinger had served with a flawed East Penn School board, and it could be argued that he suffered because of it. (also, Prinzinge lacked the finances to pull it off.) But this time is different.
In 2012/2013, Dr. Dougherty has had the cojones to stand for responsible governing, and stood up to the ill named "REFORM TEAM" in his own party. So Republican Chair Wayne Woodman has recruited Scott Aquila, a failed East Penn School board candidate in 2011, to run against Dr. Dougherty.
Now you might think there won't be a problem, that the good doctor would likely survive. But the problem this time is that Wayne Woodman is bound and determined to get a Commissioners board that gets in line with him and his right arm, Scott Ott. Sources tell me Mr. Woodman is determined to spend whatever it takes to defeat Dr. Dougherty, doing to Percy what he did to Dean Browning in 2011.
In 2011, Woodman mobilized the base of true believer Republicans against Browning ousting him.
There is no reason to doubt that he could not do it again. To that end, I turn to my old friend "The Numbers" who we all know don't lie.
In the newly redrawn Commissioner district #2, there are approximately 21,916 registered Republicans.
If you look at voter turnout in 2005 and 2009, you can easily see that less than 15% of the registered R's turned out. It is easy to see how Wayne Woodman could spend $20k and get the 2000 votes needed to boot Percy Dougherty.
No one thought it would happen to Dean Browning in 2011, but it did.
And Democrats should be worried. As of November 2012 there are 20,396 registered D's in the district as it is now drawn. The R's only have a registration advantage of of 1520 voters, or less than 3.1 5 of actual registered voters in the district. A good turnout machine could even this up real quick.
The turnout in those precincts by registered D's in 2009 in the GENERAL election was in the vicinity of 15 to 18%, while R turnout was almost 30% on the average across the 24 precincts. Throw in that in 2009,of the 11% of the 7,777 (Yes that number is correct, a very odd anomaly) registered Indy/other party voters who participated went almost 3 to 1 for the R candidate, it appears the R candidate that wins the Primary has a cakewalk in November. (Note:Presently there appears to be somewhere between 7800 and 8200 Indy/3rd party registrants, depending on which source you look at.)
Are the Dems going to sit back and surrender the seat?
I live in the 2nd district, and I can tell you that I will do whatever it takes to keep that from happening. The three reformers have already pursuaded a possible R Primary challenger to Tom Creighton not to run in District #1, and they have a solid 4 seats. Sitting back and not contesting seat # 2 is tantamount to all out surrender. That would give them the 5 seats needed, along with possible the County Executive, to govern without question on the local level.
Isn't it Ironic and a bit hypocritical that the same folks who complain about the Democratic Party hold on Allentown would plan a County dictatorship of their own?
We get the government we vote for, and we get what we deserve if we don't put up a fight. If Democrats don't put up a fight, we are going to be allowing the Republican Party as a whole to make the decisions for all County wide.
Third time in twelve years .... Hey, I thought it was a four year term! I don't see the news in that!
ReplyDeleteAnything that happened to Dean Browning was caused by Dean Browning. You act like he was outspent in his primary election. Can you read Chris? If you could, you would find that he spent over $100,000 in the election! He had 10+ hard hitting mailers. He lost because he could not buy the election. His spending was match. His record was exposed. He lost fair and square. What you say, Chris?
ReplyDeleteChris, how does Browning entering the race for County Exec, and the potential of a moderate block of Browning, Osborne and Dougherty going up against the idiots, change your thinking?
ReplyDeleteThe Banker
Browning entering the race was something I expected all along. I am a bit biased in my belief that most people who register as Republicans and Democrats, or any party, are normal rational people, not extreme ideologues. I think that because my Mother was a devoted Republican, and judge of election in her home precinct for OVER 40 YEARS. From 1980 until 1991, I registered as a Republican. They lost me when they started following Pat Robertson. I was raised as a Roman Catholic, attended an All males Catholic College Preparatory School, and had the idea of social justice heavily embedded in me.
DeleteI wanted to make clear where my thinking originates from, so it doesn't draw immediate incorrect assumptions from the critics out there.
First, I saw how much Dean Spent. But Ott was the beneficiary of FREE daily rants on WAEB courtesy of Walsh and his extreme so called News. I didn't see a claim on the Reform Party's reports for all the free "Goodwill" they benefitted from that. Talk about one sided "reporting." WAEB isn't news, it is propaganda, telling people what they want to hear.
Next, Dean's record was twisted. The reformers cried because he wouldn't go along with a dubious plan for a 13% tax increas that only put off paying the bills until later.
As we have learned, the Republican Congresses of the early 21st century had a real good knack of doing that, but it it is okay, I understand short term memory isn't that great when it doesn't benefit your argument.
Lastly, I think the possibility of three moderate Republicans (One as Exec, 2 as Commissioners) would help check the Reform team.
And it is a so called reform team, because their reassessment raised the taxes on the house I live in by about $100.00+. Thanks guys. Revenue neutral my ass.
When more than 50% of the homeowners have to pay more, that's a tax hike.
I think those issues should be played out every day. Ott got a pass in 2009, because no one took him seriously. People really need to look at his qualifications and experience, and decide whether he should be managing a budget that is close to half a BILLION dollars.
There is one last thing. Schware's district 5 is winnable by a Democrat, if there is a credible candidate. I don't know if they have one, but if there were three D's, and two Moderate R's on the board, that would isolate the Loonies.
There is also the real possibility that Leinert could defeat Creighton. That gets you 4 d's plus Percy D, if he can survive the Primary. That one is too close to call. Right now it could go either way,
I think the reason Scott won is the majority of voters who turned out including myself believe what he says and voted for him. Although what do I know you said yourself that all I am is a Scott Ott attack dog.
ReplyDelete