Wednesday, May 29, 2013

So they held a primary and less than 10% came

   The first thing I want to point out is to the Scott Ott attack dogs. There are 76,620 Republicans registered to vote in Lehigh County. Scott Ott won with less than 10% of the eligible Republicans voting for him.. 6,837, to be exact. You still want to cream about his mandate? I don't fricking think so. All it proves to me is that in all primaries, the Extremists of any party have an inordinate amount of power. Lets see how old Scotty appeals to the 108.082 Democrats come November. All we need is a 25% turnout, and old Scotty is big time toast. But I am not holding MY BREATH.

     But the big story is in Allentown, where my predictions were WRONG. That's right, WRONG. I gave far too much credit to the dissatisfied folks who screamed about how everything Ed Pawlowsi did was wrong. the truth is, out of 42,652 registered Democrats, it appears only 2800 to 2900 made it to the polls to vote.  Let me be generous and round that up to 3000. If I do that, it still means barely 7% of the eligible democrats showed up on election day. The proletariat would be proud.
   Hell, even in the City Council race, only one appointed incumbent, Jeff Glazier, lost, and that was to Allentown Police Captain Darryl Hendricks, soon to be a recipient of the overly generous police pension that is forcing the city to lease off its' water operations. The rest of the Challengers got destroyed, as turnout fell even lower than past years when there were only three seats open on council.

  I hate to admit it, but the naysayers may be right. Democracy in Allentown is a formality, and may be dead as we know it.
   Here is what makes people angry with me: As much as I dislike the methods, Ed Pawlowski is moving the city forward. He is addressing the City's issues. You may not like his methods, but he is doing that, and if voter turnout is any indication, the inhabitants like where it is heading.
Who  needs transparency when the voters (AND THE MORNING CALL,  or WFMZ 69), don't Care?

        Let me be clear; I don't like the methods, but I understand. I am a resident of the burbs, but I see he is making lemonade with turnips. God help him, but he is trying.

    I have the numbers from all the races, and I am analyzing them. In my next post, I will look at Republican turnout in the city and the burbs, and look at how Scott Ott won. I privately told people it was a 55% to 45% race3 for Ott, but though it could shift. It did not. Stay Tuned.


  1. Can a primary really be hijacked by extremist party members? I'd have to say no, and that instead, Ott is the face of the GOP in Lehigh County.
    Ott's popularity has moved from being interesting to being scary and interesting. I'm afraid the lack of Democrat turnout in the City will lend itself to Ott's wining this fall.
    In the City, I think the primary went well for Allentown and agree that the Mayor is getting things done. BTW, the police captain is Hendricks, whom you may be confusing with the Phillies pitcher on the mound last night. For all the blogosphere gripes about the mayor being a mini-dictator his team clearly outpaced the pretender candidates for council. Rather than declare this development the end of democracy in Allentown, why not recognize that like Ott being the county GOP darling, the mayor is appreciated for what he has been doing and trying to do?
    sertainly swept

  2. Anon - thanks for the Hendricks heads up. I fixed it. I was watching Baseball tonight while writing, so What do you expect from an Indian fan?!

    Anyway, part of me does not want to believe that Scott Ott I the true face of the Lehigh County Republicans. I have many Republican friends, and almost all of them are not smarmy, ideological nutjobs like Ott.

    A far as the comparison to Mayor Pawlowski as the face of the Dems, I don't see a great deal of exuberance in the city by even his supporters for him. And you are right, because the lack of any Republican candidates on the ballot drives Dem turnout down in the Municipal. Ott could win this because of apathy, and that would be a damn shame. If that happens, Lehigh County residents would be getting the government they truly deserve.

  3. Chairman Pawlowski IS all that and a bag of chips, there can be no doubt!

    Please enjoy YOUR $ 177.1 million dollar Palace of Sport, Mr. Casey.

    It is certainly NOT mine ... I just don't get into state-sponsored ice hockey. No matter HOW MANY lectures I am forced to cope with. Because I am a radical extremist who just DOES NOT believe the Government should be in the business of building minor league hockey rinks.

    Nevertheless, enjoy all of Pawlowski's Progress.



  4. front page of today's (5/30/2013) THE MORNING CALL says,

    "Of $ 31.8 million (dollars) generated, little to be returned to the state."

    "About $ 2 million would go into state coffers from a part of the city that is estimated to have been generating $ 22 million (dollars) in state money before (notorious) Neighborhood Improvement Zone was created."

    "The figures were released Wednesday by ANIZDA Executive Director Sarah Hailstone, a month after The Morning Call filed a Right-To-Know request for the information."


    Transparency, Smansparency. Indeed.



  5. Lower Mac
    Registered/Voted/ %'s May, 2013 primary R's and D's

    Poll R reg Dreg Total Voted R R % D D % Total %

    LMT 1 1153 976 2129 257 22.3% 91 9.3% 16.3%
    LMT 2 1858 1441 3299 438 23.6% 155 10.8% 18.0%
    LMT 3 855 705 1560 225 26.3% 101 14.3% 20.9%
    LMT 4 812 781 1593 201 24.8% 82 10.5% 17.8%
    LMT 5 766 533 1299 231 30.2% 58 10.9% 22.2%
    LMT 6 1077 1159 2236 171 15.9% 90 7.8% 11.7%
    LMT 7 754 631 1385 134 17.8% 74 11.7% 15.0%
    LMT 8 812 488 1300 195 24.0% 65 13.3% 20.0%
    LMT 9 534 487 1021 121 22.7% 45 9.2% 16.3%
    LMT10 944 736 1680 240 25.4% 113 15.4% 21.0%
    Total 9565 7937 17502 2213 23.1% 874 11.0% 17.6%

    1. Sry format screwy on blogpost.
      LMT had contested R muni primary. Couple candidates spent big money including television spots.

      R turnout - 23.1% (High 30, low 16)
      D turnout with nothing really to vote on... - 11.0% (high 13 low 8)
      Total 17.6%

  6. Ron, I do have all this, but I have it for all 154 precincts in the county. I am puzzled as to why R turnout in Allentown was so poor. It has historically been as good as the burbs, but not this year. 2013 primary turnout parallels 2005. Dems poor in Primary, but turned out over 33% in Municipal, Cunningham soundly defeating Ervin.

    1. Oh ya I figured you did. Just thought I'd post cause I had that data right here in front of me when I read this. Political participation has always been an interest of mine. I'm curious how this LMT race stacked up against prior primaries in terms of R turnout. I think I can safely say it was unprecedented the money put into it by the incumbents. (more accurately the R-pac) I am curious if this lifted turnout or depressed it. Most felt the "real republican" narrative by the incumbents was a turnoff and hated the Congressman Dent robocall.

      With Allentown R's, only thing that I can think of is maybe dissatisfaction with both candidates in the exec race? Who knows.

      As for the tack of the county Republican party to the far right.... I think more ppl are concerned about that then most ppl realize. I think we need those ppl to start organizing.

      I've always though both the Blue Dog Dems and the Main Street Partnership R's needed to market themselves better as viable entities not just in governing but also endorsing in primaries.

  7. Chris I know your disapproval towards Scott Ott but PLEASE stop referring to his supporters as attack dogs. Many of us just want to let our opinions be heard. We have that right and you have that right. I see you put your opinions out on this blog and good for you. You deserve the right to do it. Just please don't refer to any oposition doing the same thing as attack dogs.

  8. George, did you read this post at all? I don't see anything in this post calling anybody an attack dog.

  9. The first thing I want to point out is to the Scott Ott attack dogs....

    The first line of your post mentions what you say doesn't appear anywhere. Casey your attention to detail is only superseded by your self delusional political analysis.

    Republican primary voters turned out 2ro 1 against Ds and they chose Ott who was out spent 2 to 1 by browning. This was an open competitive primary as we're many Republican races. You may not like the outcome of the political market but the process that drive it was fair and transparent. Your post essentially shows disdain and disrespect for citizens who expressed their political views in a distinct and lopsided win for Ott.

    You keep searching for ways to explain this through your distorted political lens. Garbage in garbage out. Maybe you should examine your false assumptions about Ott and try and understand why he is so popular. It's not because R primary voters are stupid or extreme. It's because Ott offers a very real opportunity to reshape government not to provide less but to place government in an accountable position and to stop the endless cycle of regular tax hikes because there is no accountability.

    1. Show me where I specifically called anyone an attack dog. I did not. If people want to see themselves that way. Okay. Just keep slapping yourselves on the back. We will see in November. One part of me wants Ott to win. Democracy always survives idiots.. We will persevere.

  10. How about the first line of your post which I pasted above. You initiated with wanting to make a point to Scott Otts attack dogs. Maybe I am missing your point or maybe you are being intentionally obscure. BTW, whose attack dog are you.....who is Chris Casey representing exactly?
    I agree that government survives idiots. That's how we have gotten here to date. Ott will win and the threshold is low. Lehigh County has jacked taxes 80 percent or so in a decade or so. If nothing happens to stop the current trajectory we face another 25 percent hike or so around 2014 or 15. This is the status quo that you defend Casey. Ott is the only choice in November to try to change course and see if government can deliver better value and services to those who pay and those that need.

  11. Where have all these "Blue Dog Dems" been while Obama has been exploding the national debt to $ 16.0 trillion or so nationally? ... Meanwhile, in a local city that could not close a $ 20.0 million dollar or so school budget gap and, thus, laid off 99 workers, construction on the record-smashing $ 177.1 million dollar Palace of Sport continues unabated is spending what has been reported as anywhere $ 500 - $ 600 million dollars altogether in the notorious NIZ. The spending is going so well, the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania has decided that MORE cities should be getting Free NIZ Coin, too .... Blue Dog Dems. Blah, blah, blah is more like it ... "Mainstreet Partnership R's" --- why I picture a group standing there with their hand out for some kind of government grant?


  12. George you are a nutcase, and not worth debating. You don't like that ? too Bad. We need leaders of all the people, not just a crazy ideologically driven minority. Leaders need to consider the thoughts and ideas of everyone, not just a small. rabid group of crazies. And YES YOU ARE CRAZIES. Your thoughts and ideas are worthy of consideration, but they are not the word of God. I had several years of Jesuit instruction. I don't recall anywhere where it said let people suffer. Your ideology basically says screw the poor, that They deserve it. I look for a middle ground that serves the community as a whole, not the richest. I am willing to be destroyed politically for it.

  13. Thank you Chris for the uplifting comments. Every time a Liberal says stuff like that to me I know that I am doing something right. Once again thank you and I have shared the comments on facebook.


I welcome comments from real people, not robots. (Though I admit that with some extremists who have been programmed, you can't tell)