Sunday, September 22, 2013

Election Crystal Ball Time!

        November 5th just 44 days away, and that means it is time for what some readers lovingly refer to as my "HALF-ASSED" Predictions.

        I would like to start with Northampton County Executive. I believe that it is highly probable that present Bethlehem Mayor John Callahan will win with, at  the worst, a 60 to 40 % landslide.
   When all is said and done, Bangor Mayor John Brown's political body will be a "moulderin in the grave."
        Bob Donchez will be the next mayor of Bethlehem, no matter what folks might have heard a about a write in campaign from a former Bethlehem City Council member. That uh, candidate is currently indisposed, but I did hear he has a campaign office in Graterford Prison.

         Skipping over to Lehigh County, It appears that running simultaneous campaigns for Mayor of Allentown and Governor of Pennsylvania will not hurt Ed Pawlowski in the least. I appreciate the efforts of Michael Donovan, but I deal in reality. Ed P will get 75% of the vote in Allentown. What hurts him a bit is that City Republicans will come out to vote for Executive Candidate Scott Ott and it should be no surprise if a majority of them vote for Donovan down the ballot. But with a ratio of 2.5 Ds to 1 Rs, It only helps Ott overall, not hurt Pawlowski.

   And that leads us into the Lehigh County Executive race. When it comes to municipal elections Countywide, R's consistently out perform the D's when it comes to turn out, negating the huge D registration edge. That makes this race too close to call. But right now, much to my chagrin, I have to give Scott Ott a 52 to 48% winning margin. It could easily change, and there are a bunch of possible variables that could conceivably shift the balance in he turnout.
    One of those definite variables is the Parkland library funding question. That could bump turnout in the Parkland School district among Democrats in a proportion substantial enough to carry Tom Muller to Victory by itself.
     The other POSSIBLE variable is if the air quality folks in Allentown win their court challenge and get their issue on the Allentown City Ballot. I am not saying either issue will win, what I am saying is they will drive turnout more than the candidates will.

   So there you go, six weeks before V Day.


  1. What about your race.

  2. Can only hope Muller pulls it out, Ott as LC Exec will be a train wreck of monumental proportions.

    The Banker


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