Saturday, August 11, 2012

November 2012 Election Predictions for the 15th Congressional district

  There are less than ninety days until we try to vote, depending on whether we have ID or note. I have run two separate algorithms, one accounting for the Voter ID bill, and one without, The difference does favor Republicans but in the Presidential race it is not enough to take the 15th District away from Barack Obama. It is close, but Barack Obama still cariies it with between 50.4 and 51.9% of the vote. Statewide I believe Barack Obama will carry PA with somewhere just under 53%. The experts are right when they say the key to turnout for Obama is in Philly, and I also believe that despite my prediction, the State of PA still remains in play, but more from an it is Obama's to lose than a Romney's to win perspective.
     In the race for Congress, Charlie Dent will likely win with between 60.2% and 61.7%. He will crush Rick Daugherty in a landslide.   (The number I like is 60.45%) What people have to remember here is that redistricting gave Congressman Dent parts of Lebanon, Berks, and Dauphin Counties that lean Republican, while removing heavily leaning Democratic Easton from the district. Readers also have to realize that Congressman Dent connects with the Household income Demographic that exists in the district, Two Income households that make over $80K dominate the suburbs. They tend to register for an ideal, as Democrats, but when it comes to election day, they vote to protect their pocketbooks, for a Republican they see as moderate.  Rick Daugherty is trying to be more Charlie Dent than Charlie Dent, and that isn't going to sway anybody in the undecided, if there are any left.

    It is ironic that voters will use that reasoning to vote for Dent and Obama, splitting their tickets, but anyone looking at the last three Congressional contests will see that is just what they did. When I added up the precinct results from the last three elections, I saw Kerry would have won the new district in 2008, in precincts that Jim Gerlach carried.
      As for the local State house races, I am looking at them, and I will have more on that eventually.

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