The numbers are based on several variables, including voter participation by ethnic group, and are way out there. I just received the results from an algorith run thru the Computer capabilities of an Ivy League school, and I am flabbergasted. I have run it four times and still can't believe it. The biggest highlight has incumbent Guridy and Mota finishing no better than 6th. That is outside what is needed to make the November General. I have to check the report further on my days off, but that is where my own analysis keeps heading. I will post the results no later than Friday. A race with ten Dems vying for 5 seats is an opportunity to measure voter anger. One thing to consider is that of the 4500 signatures gathered to put the water issue on the ballet, less than 28% of those folks voted in the municipal election of 2011.
That is a wild card that is hard to measure, because of that 4500, fewer than 650 voted in the 2009 municipal election. Is the Allentown electorate that transient? or is it that disconnected?
By the way, close to 91% of the people who signed the petition to put the water lease issue on the ballot voted in November 2012. This makes making a call on turnout in May 2013 difficult.
I want to read the repoer further, but I can't help thinking that the whole damn thing is a shot in the dark