Wayward Loons in the Lehigh Valley?
I had seen a great many White Snow Geese in the last few days. They have been swimming in the retention pond below the cell tower behind my house,
But I'm not surprised to read there are lost Loons in Upper Macungie. There has been Loons around for about 5 years or more now. I think many of them have even registered to vote in local Primaries. I will let you figure what party they might be voting for.
Sunday, February 10, 2013
Saturday, February 9, 2013
I had to engage Comment Moderation
I was out Saturday Morning clearing snow, and when I came in, I found I had been hit with numerous innapropriate comments. So I have stopped comments for the day. I left up the legitimate comment and my reply. The rest I deleted. I was hoping that would not happen, but that is what it is.
Allentown City Council Democratic Primary is wide open.
This year there are 5 seats on the ballot. There are 4 incumbents running for 4 year terms. Ray O'Connell and Julio Guridy are running after serving one and two full terms respectively. Cynthia Mota is trying to win a full term after serving out the rest of District Magistrate Mike D'amore's term. Jeff Glazier is running after serving out the final months of newly elected State Representative Mike Schlossberg's term. Last but not least, Joe Davis is running to continue serving out the remainder of Frank Concannon's term.
The interesting dynamic here is that three of the five incumbents were appointed, not elected. This makes a municipal primary with a history of drastically low turnout a game that could potentially be manipulated by the introduction of 1000 to 1500 voters who don't usually participate.
Let me explain by putting forth the history of the last two municipal primaries in Allentown, taking place in May 2009 and May 2011.
In May 2009, Allentown had 42,948 registered Democrats. Democrats were so excited about their choices that only 4,332 of them showed up to vote. That is city wide turnout by Democrats of 10.08%. Those folks could vote for as many as 4 of the 7 candidates on the ballot. That means, all things being equal, there could have been 17,328 votes cast if every voter had chosen 4 candidates. The fact is, there were only 13,840 votes dispersed among the 7 candidates. That betrays a staggering number of undervotes, of 3,488.
That means at least 20% of the 4,332 voters who showed up didn't vote for 4 candidates. It's likely some voted for only, one, two or three. The point is, those votes were left unclaimed by any of the 7 candidates
When you consider that the difference between 4th place vote getter Julio Guridy, who made the cut with 2056 votes, and fifth place finisher David Howelss, who earned 1,985 votes, was only 71 votes, it is easy to see how several thousand uncast votes can alter an election, isn't it?
Now lets take a look at 2011. If you think turnout in 2009 was abysmal, 2011 was even worse.
Of the 40,551 registered Democrats in Allentown, only 3,513 (8.66%) showed up on election day to cast three votes choosing from 5 candidates. That means the 100% potential of votes cast was 10,539.
The 5 candidates together only garnered 7563 votes, this time with an undervote 2,976.
Now Pete Schweyer and Jeannett Eichenwald both coasted easily, but the third spot was a toss up.
Frank Concannon won it with 1,350 votes, but Cynthia Mota had 1,231, and John Ingram had 1,102.
The three candidates were only separated by 248 votes, with almost 3,000 votes left at the tip of the voters fingers on the push button screen voting machines.
Now why does this all matter?
Enter Successful Allentown businessman/promoter Alfonso Todd. Mr. Todd has announced his intention to run for City Council. According to the Lehigh County Voter Registration website, all he needs to get on the Primary ballot is one hundred valid signatures from registered Democrats on his nominating petitions, and pay a $25.00 filing fee.
Here is where I handicap the field.
Joe Davis will likely not get a challenger to finish out Frank Concannon's term, and he will sail through.
Ray O'Connell is likely a stone cold lead pipe lock to make the November ballot for another full 4 year term. Jeff Glazier will likely cruise to a nomination as well, and I will explain that reasoning in a minute.
But Julio Guridy and Cynthia Mota? They have a big problem, and that is the apathy of the Center City Hispanic population. When I look at my charts of actual voter turnout in Allentown for the primary elections, There are more than a dozen precincts with turnout under 5 %, and 5 precincts that had turnout under 3 %.
And those precincts are in the old fairgrounds district, where the Hispanic presence is strongest.
Elections 101: Get your voters to the polls.
This is why Julio Guridy barely survived in 2009, and Cynthia Mota couldn't make the cut in 2011.
To be blunt, Hispanic voters don't seem to care. That sounds terrible, but the facts are there. Guridy and Mota haven't motivated them and I don't know what will. I wish I knew how to engage them but I don't.
And this is also why Alfonso Todd has a rare opportunity. A perfect minor political storm is brewing in Allentown. If the water sale lease question ends up on the ballot, it will drive an anti-incumbent backlash against the Mayor's allies on council. I really doubt that the Mayor will suffer any political damage from this. Like him or not he has framed the argument perfectly for himself, trying to offer solutions to problems instead of ignoring them altogether, as his predecessors did.
Even if there are only 1500 to 2000 more votes cast in the Democratic side of the primary, those votes will more likely be in play for those outside the circle of power looking in, than those inside it. As you can see from the data above, getting a few hundred more people to push an extra touch screen button or two could change the whols face of an election.
COULD would be the operative word.
Finally, Jeff Glazier is the lucky winner of the free pass award. He has an old City name, Glazier, runs an old City Business, a furniture store, and served three terms on the Allentown School Board, so he has instant name recognition. In an election with hardly anybody bothering to vote, he's almost as big a lock as Ray O'Connell.
That's how it looks to me.
The interesting dynamic here is that three of the five incumbents were appointed, not elected. This makes a municipal primary with a history of drastically low turnout a game that could potentially be manipulated by the introduction of 1000 to 1500 voters who don't usually participate.
Let me explain by putting forth the history of the last two municipal primaries in Allentown, taking place in May 2009 and May 2011.
In May 2009, Allentown had 42,948 registered Democrats. Democrats were so excited about their choices that only 4,332 of them showed up to vote. That is city wide turnout by Democrats of 10.08%. Those folks could vote for as many as 4 of the 7 candidates on the ballot. That means, all things being equal, there could have been 17,328 votes cast if every voter had chosen 4 candidates. The fact is, there were only 13,840 votes dispersed among the 7 candidates. That betrays a staggering number of undervotes, of 3,488.
That means at least 20% of the 4,332 voters who showed up didn't vote for 4 candidates. It's likely some voted for only, one, two or three. The point is, those votes were left unclaimed by any of the 7 candidates
When you consider that the difference between 4th place vote getter Julio Guridy, who made the cut with 2056 votes, and fifth place finisher David Howelss, who earned 1,985 votes, was only 71 votes, it is easy to see how several thousand uncast votes can alter an election, isn't it?
Now lets take a look at 2011. If you think turnout in 2009 was abysmal, 2011 was even worse.
Of the 40,551 registered Democrats in Allentown, only 3,513 (8.66%) showed up on election day to cast three votes choosing from 5 candidates. That means the 100% potential of votes cast was 10,539.
The 5 candidates together only garnered 7563 votes, this time with an undervote 2,976.
Now Pete Schweyer and Jeannett Eichenwald both coasted easily, but the third spot was a toss up.
Frank Concannon won it with 1,350 votes, but Cynthia Mota had 1,231, and John Ingram had 1,102.
The three candidates were only separated by 248 votes, with almost 3,000 votes left at the tip of the voters fingers on the push button screen voting machines.
Now why does this all matter?
Enter Successful Allentown businessman/promoter Alfonso Todd. Mr. Todd has announced his intention to run for City Council. According to the Lehigh County Voter Registration website, all he needs to get on the Primary ballot is one hundred valid signatures from registered Democrats on his nominating petitions, and pay a $25.00 filing fee.
Here is where I handicap the field.
Joe Davis will likely not get a challenger to finish out Frank Concannon's term, and he will sail through.
Ray O'Connell is likely a stone cold lead pipe lock to make the November ballot for another full 4 year term. Jeff Glazier will likely cruise to a nomination as well, and I will explain that reasoning in a minute.
But Julio Guridy and Cynthia Mota? They have a big problem, and that is the apathy of the Center City Hispanic population. When I look at my charts of actual voter turnout in Allentown for the primary elections, There are more than a dozen precincts with turnout under 5 %, and 5 precincts that had turnout under 3 %.
And those precincts are in the old fairgrounds district, where the Hispanic presence is strongest.
Elections 101: Get your voters to the polls.
This is why Julio Guridy barely survived in 2009, and Cynthia Mota couldn't make the cut in 2011.
To be blunt, Hispanic voters don't seem to care. That sounds terrible, but the facts are there. Guridy and Mota haven't motivated them and I don't know what will. I wish I knew how to engage them but I don't.
And this is also why Alfonso Todd has a rare opportunity. A perfect minor political storm is brewing in Allentown. If the water sale lease question ends up on the ballot, it will drive an anti-incumbent backlash against the Mayor's allies on council. I really doubt that the Mayor will suffer any political damage from this. Like him or not he has framed the argument perfectly for himself, trying to offer solutions to problems instead of ignoring them altogether, as his predecessors did.
Even if there are only 1500 to 2000 more votes cast in the Democratic side of the primary, those votes will more likely be in play for those outside the circle of power looking in, than those inside it. As you can see from the data above, getting a few hundred more people to push an extra touch screen button or two could change the whols face of an election.
COULD would be the operative word.
Finally, Jeff Glazier is the lucky winner of the free pass award. He has an old City name, Glazier, runs an old City Business, a furniture store, and served three terms on the Allentown School Board, so he has instant name recognition. In an election with hardly anybody bothering to vote, he's almost as big a lock as Ray O'Connell.
That's how it looks to me.
Saturday, February 2, 2013
I saw my Shadow Saturday Morning
For those of you who are interested. I rose at 4:42 AM Saturday to let my dog Sally out to do her business. When she was finished at approximateley 4:48 AM, I let her back in. I then saw my Shadow in the hall light, and went back to bed until after 7 AM. I believe this means at least 7 more weeks of winter. Now go to bed and get some sleep, it is freaking cold outside!
Interesting Trends in Lehigh Valley Voter Registration since 2003
I have had reason in the last couple of weeks to once again peruse voter data on Lehigh County. But in recent days I also started taking a closer look at Northampton County. I have the data by precinct for Lehigh County going back a decade, but I don't have it for Northampton....yet. What I do have is registration totals for the both counties overall, and when I put them up beside each other, the similarities are not all that surprising. I am using the period from May 2003 to November 2011 because I don't have any figures for Northampton in 2012. This makes the comparison easier and somewhat cleaner, in my opinion.
In May of 2003, Lehigh County had 177,769 total registered voters
That was 78,101 Democrats
74,902 Republicans
34,766 Other
In November of 2011 Lehigh County had 214,881 total registered voters, a gain of 37,112.
That was 107,594 Democrats (+29,493)
73,857 Republicans (-1,045)
44,864 Other (+10,098)
Now initial glances at the data would have you think that Lehigh County had an invasion of Democrats migrating from the east, while Republicans were suffering from a case of fewer conservatives moving into the valley combined with a number of voters becoming unaffiliated and changing their registration to something else.
In Nov 2006 the Republicans did reach a registration total of over 80,000, but it has declined steadily at about 1,000 a year since then. I see this as an exodus of the more moderate voters. I see evidence of it in how far right the primary contests have continued to swing in results. This is exactly why the "REFORM" team won in 2011. It was a culmination of a perfect storm of electoral variables as it related to a party struggling to define itself. And an opposition party leader more focused on his own Congressional race than his local political obligations.
Now lets take a look at Northampton County
In May 2003 Northampton County had 166,779 voters (only 11,010 fewer than Lehigh)
That was 68,904 Democrats
55,190 Republicans
42,673 Other
By November of 2011, Northampton county had 201, 592 voters, (13,289 fewer than Lehigh County)
That was 99,217 Democrats (+30,313)
67,986 Republicans (+12,796)
34,389 Other (-8,284)
As in Lehigh, The Democrats in Northampton have come excruciatingly close to having 50% of the electorate registered to their party. That doesn't mean they will vote as a D, but there is a psychological edge to it.
What I find interesting is the disparity of growth in the Republican ranks in both Counties. Northampton Republicans managed to grow by more than 20% since 2003, while Lehigh County stayed more or less static. What caused that? The local leadership? the growth of the Tea party? Divisions in the Republican base between moderate and ultra conservative factions?
If you look at the two counties from a distance, you would think they are on parallel courses, but when you get close up you have to wonder.
So there are your thoughts to consider for this weekend What directions are the two main parties headed in? What is driving them? And Why are the Two counties so similar in demographic but so much different in the end electoral result?
In May of 2003, Lehigh County had 177,769 total registered voters
That was 78,101 Democrats
74,902 Republicans
34,766 Other
In November of 2011 Lehigh County had 214,881 total registered voters, a gain of 37,112.
That was 107,594 Democrats (+29,493)
73,857 Republicans (-1,045)
44,864 Other (+10,098)
Now initial glances at the data would have you think that Lehigh County had an invasion of Democrats migrating from the east, while Republicans were suffering from a case of fewer conservatives moving into the valley combined with a number of voters becoming unaffiliated and changing their registration to something else.
In Nov 2006 the Republicans did reach a registration total of over 80,000, but it has declined steadily at about 1,000 a year since then. I see this as an exodus of the more moderate voters. I see evidence of it in how far right the primary contests have continued to swing in results. This is exactly why the "REFORM" team won in 2011. It was a culmination of a perfect storm of electoral variables as it related to a party struggling to define itself. And an opposition party leader more focused on his own Congressional race than his local political obligations.
Now lets take a look at Northampton County
In May 2003 Northampton County had 166,779 voters (only 11,010 fewer than Lehigh)
That was 68,904 Democrats
55,190 Republicans
42,673 Other
By November of 2011, Northampton county had 201, 592 voters, (13,289 fewer than Lehigh County)
That was 99,217 Democrats (+30,313)
67,986 Republicans (+12,796)
34,389 Other (-8,284)
As in Lehigh, The Democrats in Northampton have come excruciatingly close to having 50% of the electorate registered to their party. That doesn't mean they will vote as a D, but there is a psychological edge to it.
What I find interesting is the disparity of growth in the Republican ranks in both Counties. Northampton Republicans managed to grow by more than 20% since 2003, while Lehigh County stayed more or less static. What caused that? The local leadership? the growth of the Tea party? Divisions in the Republican base between moderate and ultra conservative factions?
If you look at the two counties from a distance, you would think they are on parallel courses, but when you get close up you have to wonder.
So there are your thoughts to consider for this weekend What directions are the two main parties headed in? What is driving them? And Why are the Two counties so similar in demographic but so much different in the end electoral result?
Friday, February 1, 2013
The case for Incumbent Percy Dougherty losing the primary
Last week I wrote about some of the circumstances surrounding the challenge of incumbent Percy Dougherty by his own party leadership. I was personally challenged to make the case for why I believed that the respectable Dr. Dougherty was in trouble.
Well, you asked for it, so here goes:
I did a comprehensive analysis of Republican turnout in the primary elections for years that Dr. Dougherty ran for office. I concentrated on precincts in the 2nd Commissioner district cross referencing results from precincts that were in the district and are now out, and those precincts that are now in.
To boot, All 6 Emmaus precincts and Macungie borough are out of the 2nd district, and now in the 5th.
To balance that, all of South Whitehall's 8 precincts are now in the 2nd district,with 3 precincts (the 2nd,4th, and 5th) moving in from Dan McCarthy's old 4th district.
The new 2nd district, as of Nov 2012,has 21,916 Registered Republicans. In 2009, that district would have had 21,111 Registered Rs. By checking individual precinct turnout data from 2009, only 3,276 Republicans voted in those 24 precincts.
That would be 1815 in Lower Macuncie, 843 in South Whitehall, 539 in Upper Macungie, and 79 in Alburtis. That means there was only 15.4% turnout by Republicans in those districts.
I don't want to give out to much information on my personal electoral algorithm, but I would tell people to look for clues in the average price of homes in Emmaus/Macungie compared to South Whitehall. There is a distinct correlation in poll results to the average household income. I would argue that there are more farther leaning right R's in South Whitehall than in Emmaus, and a few 100 votes here or there can make a big difference. The people in Emmaus knew Dr. Dougherty, but there are precincts in South Whitehall that have never seen his name on the ballot. They have been voting for Dan McCarthy for the last decade.
That's what the numbers tell me, argue with them if you want.
Well, you asked for it, so here goes:
I did a comprehensive analysis of Republican turnout in the primary elections for years that Dr. Dougherty ran for office. I concentrated on precincts in the 2nd Commissioner district cross referencing results from precincts that were in the district and are now out, and those precincts that are now in.
To boot, All 6 Emmaus precincts and Macungie borough are out of the 2nd district, and now in the 5th.
To balance that, all of South Whitehall's 8 precincts are now in the 2nd district,with 3 precincts (the 2nd,4th, and 5th) moving in from Dan McCarthy's old 4th district.
The new 2nd district, as of Nov 2012,has 21,916 Registered Republicans. In 2009, that district would have had 21,111 Registered Rs. By checking individual precinct turnout data from 2009, only 3,276 Republicans voted in those 24 precincts.
That would be 1815 in Lower Macuncie, 843 in South Whitehall, 539 in Upper Macungie, and 79 in Alburtis. That means there was only 15.4% turnout by Republicans in those districts.
I don't want to give out to much information on my personal electoral algorithm, but I would tell people to look for clues in the average price of homes in Emmaus/Macungie compared to South Whitehall. There is a distinct correlation in poll results to the average household income. I would argue that there are more farther leaning right R's in South Whitehall than in Emmaus, and a few 100 votes here or there can make a big difference. The people in Emmaus knew Dr. Dougherty, but there are precincts in South Whitehall that have never seen his name on the ballot. They have been voting for Dan McCarthy for the last decade.
That's what the numbers tell me, argue with them if you want.
Saturday, January 26, 2013
County Commissioner Percy Dougherty gets a Republican primary challenger once again
For at least the third time in twelve years, Dr. Percy Dougherty is going to get a Primary Challenger from his own Republican Party. In 2005, he barely beat off a challenge from current Upper Macungie Township employee and Lower Macungie resident Jim Lancsek, winning the primary with 1802 votes to Lancsek's 1578.
That's what happens when you try to govern for the good of all the people in your district, at least if you are a Republican.
Then in 2009, Percy fended off a challenge from a less formidable candidate, Mark Prinzinger, defeating him 1842 to 1329. Prinzinger had served with a flawed East Penn School board, and it could be argued that he suffered because of it. (also, Prinzinge lacked the finances to pull it off.) But this time is different.
In 2012/2013, Dr. Dougherty has had the cojones to stand for responsible governing, and stood up to the ill named "REFORM TEAM" in his own party. So Republican Chair Wayne Woodman has recruited Scott Aquila, a failed East Penn School board candidate in 2011, to run against Dr. Dougherty.
Now you might think there won't be a problem, that the good doctor would likely survive. But the problem this time is that Wayne Woodman is bound and determined to get a Commissioners board that gets in line with him and his right arm, Scott Ott. Sources tell me Mr. Woodman is determined to spend whatever it takes to defeat Dr. Dougherty, doing to Percy what he did to Dean Browning in 2011.
In 2011, Woodman mobilized the base of true believer Republicans against Browning ousting him.
There is no reason to doubt that he could not do it again. To that end, I turn to my old friend "The Numbers" who we all know don't lie.
In the newly redrawn Commissioner district #2, there are approximately 21,916 registered Republicans.
If you look at voter turnout in 2005 and 2009, you can easily see that less than 15% of the registered R's turned out. It is easy to see how Wayne Woodman could spend $20k and get the 2000 votes needed to boot Percy Dougherty.
No one thought it would happen to Dean Browning in 2011, but it did.
And Democrats should be worried. As of November 2012 there are 20,396 registered D's in the district as it is now drawn. The R's only have a registration advantage of of 1520 voters, or less than 3.1 5 of actual registered voters in the district. A good turnout machine could even this up real quick.
The turnout in those precincts by registered D's in 2009 in the GENERAL election was in the vicinity of 15 to 18%, while R turnout was almost 30% on the average across the 24 precincts. Throw in that in 2009,of the 11% of the 7,777 (Yes that number is correct, a very odd anomaly) registered Indy/other party voters who participated went almost 3 to 1 for the R candidate, it appears the R candidate that wins the Primary has a cakewalk in November. (Note:Presently there appears to be somewhere between 7800 and 8200 Indy/3rd party registrants, depending on which source you look at.)
Are the Dems going to sit back and surrender the seat?
I live in the 2nd district, and I can tell you that I will do whatever it takes to keep that from happening. The three reformers have already pursuaded a possible R Primary challenger to Tom Creighton not to run in District #1, and they have a solid 4 seats. Sitting back and not contesting seat # 2 is tantamount to all out surrender. That would give them the 5 seats needed, along with possible the County Executive, to govern without question on the local level.
Isn't it Ironic and a bit hypocritical that the same folks who complain about the Democratic Party hold on Allentown would plan a County dictatorship of their own?
We get the government we vote for, and we get what we deserve if we don't put up a fight. If Democrats don't put up a fight, we are going to be allowing the Republican Party as a whole to make the decisions for all County wide.
That's what happens when you try to govern for the good of all the people in your district, at least if you are a Republican.
Then in 2009, Percy fended off a challenge from a less formidable candidate, Mark Prinzinger, defeating him 1842 to 1329. Prinzinger had served with a flawed East Penn School board, and it could be argued that he suffered because of it. (also, Prinzinge lacked the finances to pull it off.) But this time is different.
In 2012/2013, Dr. Dougherty has had the cojones to stand for responsible governing, and stood up to the ill named "REFORM TEAM" in his own party. So Republican Chair Wayne Woodman has recruited Scott Aquila, a failed East Penn School board candidate in 2011, to run against Dr. Dougherty.
Now you might think there won't be a problem, that the good doctor would likely survive. But the problem this time is that Wayne Woodman is bound and determined to get a Commissioners board that gets in line with him and his right arm, Scott Ott. Sources tell me Mr. Woodman is determined to spend whatever it takes to defeat Dr. Dougherty, doing to Percy what he did to Dean Browning in 2011.
In 2011, Woodman mobilized the base of true believer Republicans against Browning ousting him.
There is no reason to doubt that he could not do it again. To that end, I turn to my old friend "The Numbers" who we all know don't lie.
In the newly redrawn Commissioner district #2, there are approximately 21,916 registered Republicans.
If you look at voter turnout in 2005 and 2009, you can easily see that less than 15% of the registered R's turned out. It is easy to see how Wayne Woodman could spend $20k and get the 2000 votes needed to boot Percy Dougherty.
No one thought it would happen to Dean Browning in 2011, but it did.
And Democrats should be worried. As of November 2012 there are 20,396 registered D's in the district as it is now drawn. The R's only have a registration advantage of of 1520 voters, or less than 3.1 5 of actual registered voters in the district. A good turnout machine could even this up real quick.
The turnout in those precincts by registered D's in 2009 in the GENERAL election was in the vicinity of 15 to 18%, while R turnout was almost 30% on the average across the 24 precincts. Throw in that in 2009,of the 11% of the 7,777 (Yes that number is correct, a very odd anomaly) registered Indy/other party voters who participated went almost 3 to 1 for the R candidate, it appears the R candidate that wins the Primary has a cakewalk in November. (Note:Presently there appears to be somewhere between 7800 and 8200 Indy/3rd party registrants, depending on which source you look at.)
Are the Dems going to sit back and surrender the seat?
I live in the 2nd district, and I can tell you that I will do whatever it takes to keep that from happening. The three reformers have already pursuaded a possible R Primary challenger to Tom Creighton not to run in District #1, and they have a solid 4 seats. Sitting back and not contesting seat # 2 is tantamount to all out surrender. That would give them the 5 seats needed, along with possible the County Executive, to govern without question on the local level.
Isn't it Ironic and a bit hypocritical that the same folks who complain about the Democratic Party hold on Allentown would plan a County dictatorship of their own?
We get the government we vote for, and we get what we deserve if we don't put up a fight. If Democrats don't put up a fight, we are going to be allowing the Republican Party as a whole to make the decisions for all County wide.
Friday, January 25, 2013
Scott Ott is fooling himself
.........and unfortunately for far too many Lehigh County voters, he is fooling them too.
Let us get something straight here. It is true that Scott Ott ONLY lost to Don Cunningham by 862 votes in 2009. But ESPN has a TV show called "NUMBERS DON'T LIE", and a closer look at voter turnout in 2009 compared to the turnout in 2005 tells a different Story.
In 2005, Don Cunningham received 33,263 votes to Jane Ervin's 20,721. At that time, there were 200,739 registered voters in Lehigh County. According to Lehigh County's own data, 57,638 citizens cast votes that November, for a turnout of 28.7% The undervote was 3,634, or 1.8%
In 2009, Don Cunningham received 21,063 votes to Scott Ott's 20,201. In 2009 there were 222,980 registered voters in Lehigh County, with 44,637 participating in Democracy for a turnout of 20.02%
The undervote of voters who participated but didn't cast ballots in the Executive race was 3433, or just about 1.4%
A couple of big points to be made here. First, in 2005 Don Cunningham was running against a Republican who had pushed through a 70% property tax increase. This issue motivated voters to the polls. Second, in 2009, nobody gave Ott a chance exactly because Cunningham had done a good job, and people thought his reelection was easily assured.
Third, I would like to point out that Scott Ott received 520 fewer votes than Jane Ervin did. If we stay with his logic, then people like him less than Jane Ervin.
Another thing to remember is that voters were burned out in 2009, after a raucous 2008 year of electioneering, In 2013, I believe the mood of the Country, and yes that belleweather place we call home, the Lehigh Valley, is shifting. Voters are tired of political games being played with every little article just to obstruct one side or the other.
Mr Ott and his allies on the County Commissioners seem to have decided to forget that the purpose of serving in elected office is to take care of the people's business, and see to the welfare of the entire Community. Their idea of REFORM is to protect the interests of the wealthiest few at the expense of the rest of us. I agree that we have to be fiscally aware and watch our pennies. I agree that we should look at everything to see where we can save money, and I agree that there is always room to improve how government functions.
But government can't function by unilaterally proposing $5 million dollar cuts without specifics. A society is only as strong as its' weakest links, and we can't abandon our obligations because some feel that a few recipients don't deserve assistance or might be abusing the program. I will touch on this more in a future post, but most of the human resources money is state and federal pass through cash, and shouldn't be traeted with disdain as the reform crew has shown.
When one is elected, I believe the person has a responsibility to weigh the best interests of all. Our Government is supposed to be "For the People" not "For the IDEOLOGY" of any political Party.
We need people in the elected positions of Government who can work to build consensus and find common solutions, not ideologically blind theocrats whose mantra is "Our way or no way."
Scott Ott is not the leader that Lehigh County needs in the next 4 years. Unfortunately, so far no one has stepped forward to offer an alternative. We won't know for sure until March 12th when the nominating petitions are filed what the answer to that question might be.
Let us get something straight here. It is true that Scott Ott ONLY lost to Don Cunningham by 862 votes in 2009. But ESPN has a TV show called "NUMBERS DON'T LIE", and a closer look at voter turnout in 2009 compared to the turnout in 2005 tells a different Story.
In 2005, Don Cunningham received 33,263 votes to Jane Ervin's 20,721. At that time, there were 200,739 registered voters in Lehigh County. According to Lehigh County's own data, 57,638 citizens cast votes that November, for a turnout of 28.7% The undervote was 3,634, or 1.8%
In 2009, Don Cunningham received 21,063 votes to Scott Ott's 20,201. In 2009 there were 222,980 registered voters in Lehigh County, with 44,637 participating in Democracy for a turnout of 20.02%
The undervote of voters who participated but didn't cast ballots in the Executive race was 3433, or just about 1.4%
A couple of big points to be made here. First, in 2005 Don Cunningham was running against a Republican who had pushed through a 70% property tax increase. This issue motivated voters to the polls. Second, in 2009, nobody gave Ott a chance exactly because Cunningham had done a good job, and people thought his reelection was easily assured.
Third, I would like to point out that Scott Ott received 520 fewer votes than Jane Ervin did. If we stay with his logic, then people like him less than Jane Ervin.
Another thing to remember is that voters were burned out in 2009, after a raucous 2008 year of electioneering, In 2013, I believe the mood of the Country, and yes that belleweather place we call home, the Lehigh Valley, is shifting. Voters are tired of political games being played with every little article just to obstruct one side or the other.
Mr Ott and his allies on the County Commissioners seem to have decided to forget that the purpose of serving in elected office is to take care of the people's business, and see to the welfare of the entire Community. Their idea of REFORM is to protect the interests of the wealthiest few at the expense of the rest of us. I agree that we have to be fiscally aware and watch our pennies. I agree that we should look at everything to see where we can save money, and I agree that there is always room to improve how government functions.
But government can't function by unilaterally proposing $5 million dollar cuts without specifics. A society is only as strong as its' weakest links, and we can't abandon our obligations because some feel that a few recipients don't deserve assistance or might be abusing the program. I will touch on this more in a future post, but most of the human resources money is state and federal pass through cash, and shouldn't be traeted with disdain as the reform crew has shown.
When one is elected, I believe the person has a responsibility to weigh the best interests of all. Our Government is supposed to be "For the People" not "For the IDEOLOGY" of any political Party.
We need people in the elected positions of Government who can work to build consensus and find common solutions, not ideologically blind theocrats whose mantra is "Our way or no way."
Scott Ott is not the leader that Lehigh County needs in the next 4 years. Unfortunately, so far no one has stepped forward to offer an alternative. We won't know for sure until March 12th when the nominating petitions are filed what the answer to that question might be.
Friday, January 18, 2013
What should Governor Corbett Privatize next?
Tom Corbett doesn't want to be the first governor in over 40 years to only serve one term. He doesn't want to be remembered as "FRACKING TOM CORBETT!" decades from now when Pennsylvania's tap water is so contaminated you can use it as lighter fluid.
Nor does he want to be remembered as the guy who as Attorney General took his sweet time going about investigating convicted serial pedophile Jerry Sandusky, and literally killing Joe Paterno.
Also, Governor Corbett took a lot of campaign contributions from people who had agendas, and if he does get voted out, time is short to meet those obligations.
So our Governor has strongarmed through a deal to privatize the Lottery. The only stop gap in front of him is that his Successor as elected Attorney General, Kathleen Kane, gets an opportunity to review what has now been pointed out to a possibly not so beneficial financial deal for Pennsylvania. We are going to have to see how that plays out.
But while the Lottery Soap opera plays, the Governor has put out a Spin off show several years in development, SELL THE LIQUOR STORES!
I really don't know how I feel about this, I grew up in the Midwest where you can buy Vodka in the grocery store, and beer at the gas station, and I kind of miss that.
But my main point is that it seems the Governor wants to privatize anything he can to make a buck.
So I have a suggestion: Why not just privatize all of government, elected officials and all jobs? We could outsource it to the far east like everything else and save Billions. No more crisis with the public employees retirement system!
I'm sure there is a Company somewhere overseas that could import laborers willing to work for a dollar a day.
By now you have to realize I am not serious, and I am making light of the stuation.
The truth is I want the residents of Pennsylvania to wake up and take a look at what the elected legislature, controlled by one party, and their elected Governor, of that same party are doing. We need to ask ourselves if this is what WE THE PEOPLE of Pennsylvania truly want, or what people of a ideology bent on enforcing their will on a majority through decades of gerrymandering want.
I ask my fellow voters: Is selling the Lottery and Liquor stores at the top of your priorities for our Government? I always thought it was about better management, not selling of the crown jewels for a short term fix. But that is what it looks like.
Nor does he want to be remembered as the guy who as Attorney General took his sweet time going about investigating convicted serial pedophile Jerry Sandusky, and literally killing Joe Paterno.
Also, Governor Corbett took a lot of campaign contributions from people who had agendas, and if he does get voted out, time is short to meet those obligations.
So our Governor has strongarmed through a deal to privatize the Lottery. The only stop gap in front of him is that his Successor as elected Attorney General, Kathleen Kane, gets an opportunity to review what has now been pointed out to a possibly not so beneficial financial deal for Pennsylvania. We are going to have to see how that plays out.
But while the Lottery Soap opera plays, the Governor has put out a Spin off show several years in development, SELL THE LIQUOR STORES!
I really don't know how I feel about this, I grew up in the Midwest where you can buy Vodka in the grocery store, and beer at the gas station, and I kind of miss that.
But my main point is that it seems the Governor wants to privatize anything he can to make a buck.
So I have a suggestion: Why not just privatize all of government, elected officials and all jobs? We could outsource it to the far east like everything else and save Billions. No more crisis with the public employees retirement system!
I'm sure there is a Company somewhere overseas that could import laborers willing to work for a dollar a day.
By now you have to realize I am not serious, and I am making light of the stuation.
The truth is I want the residents of Pennsylvania to wake up and take a look at what the elected legislature, controlled by one party, and their elected Governor, of that same party are doing. We need to ask ourselves if this is what WE THE PEOPLE of Pennsylvania truly want, or what people of a ideology bent on enforcing their will on a majority through decades of gerrymandering want.
I ask my fellow voters: Is selling the Lottery and Liquor stores at the top of your priorities for our Government? I always thought it was about better management, not selling of the crown jewels for a short term fix. But that is what it looks like.
Thursday, January 17, 2013
PA State Senator Daylin Leach Suspects that some of his colleagues are smoking Pot
I just love our state legislature. A few years back I tried to get a job there, bur I failed. Still, it seems to be one of the most funfilled places in America for doing mischief and getting away with it.
Yesterday on a radio show, State Senator Daylin Leach, a guy known for a wicked sense of humor, told the interviewer that he suspected a number of our elected representatives are users of marijuana.
Read all about his comedy HERE.
Now we all know those rascals are not above midnight pay raises, sweet heart car leasing deals, and giving themselves the best health care anyware, while restricting care for kids living in poverty.
So why the uproar over the idea that a few might be using a little wacky tobaccy?
We have had several of our local legislators get a DUI (or two or three) Remember Rep Thomas Druce from Bucks County and his vehicular homicide that he tried to cover up?. In 2005 We had a state rep claim he took the midnight pay raise so he could replace his furnace. (We promoted him to Judge, because he did pay it back.)
I could go on and on, but it has occurred to me that the legislature might have a higher percentage of criminals than the general population. Maybe the next time we need a new state prison we could just convert a building on the State house grounds? With their generous health plan, we might even offer them medicinal marijuana to help them cope with their terms, be it in the legislature or prison, or maybe both simultaneously. I'm sure John Perzel, Vince Fumo, Mike Veon, and Bill Deweese would be okay with it.
Yesterday on a radio show, State Senator Daylin Leach, a guy known for a wicked sense of humor, told the interviewer that he suspected a number of our elected representatives are users of marijuana.
Read all about his comedy HERE.
Now we all know those rascals are not above midnight pay raises, sweet heart car leasing deals, and giving themselves the best health care anyware, while restricting care for kids living in poverty.
So why the uproar over the idea that a few might be using a little wacky tobaccy?
We have had several of our local legislators get a DUI (or two or three) Remember Rep Thomas Druce from Bucks County and his vehicular homicide that he tried to cover up?. In 2005 We had a state rep claim he took the midnight pay raise so he could replace his furnace. (We promoted him to Judge, because he did pay it back.)
I could go on and on, but it has occurred to me that the legislature might have a higher percentage of criminals than the general population. Maybe the next time we need a new state prison we could just convert a building on the State house grounds? With their generous health plan, we might even offer them medicinal marijuana to help them cope with their terms, be it in the legislature or prison, or maybe both simultaneously. I'm sure John Perzel, Vince Fumo, Mike Veon, and Bill Deweese would be okay with it.
Wednesday, January 16, 2013
Dennis Pearson: Allentown Mayoral Candidate.....Really?
From Time to Time, I get some stuff in the rumor mill that makes me blink. The most recent is that East Allentown/Rittersville Neighborhood Association President Dennis Pearson is considering the possibility of challenging current Mayor Ed Pawlowski in the primary.
Now Stop Laughing. I know you are laughing, STOP IT!
Okay, you stopped. Now think about it. Dennis has been a community activists for decades. He has run unsuccessfully for State Representatice and an at large County Commissioners seat, and he does have name recognition. He has lived in Allentown all his life, and he does know the ins and outs on just about every local issue.
But really, could you imagine how a debate between Mator Pawlowski and Dennis Pearson might play out?! I honest to God wish I lived in Allentown so I could sign a nominating petition for Pearson. He might not have a snowball's chance in hell of winning, but by God, it sure as hell would be entertaining!
Now Stop Laughing. I know you are laughing, STOP IT!
Okay, you stopped. Now think about it. Dennis has been a community activists for decades. He has run unsuccessfully for State Representatice and an at large County Commissioners seat, and he does have name recognition. He has lived in Allentown all his life, and he does know the ins and outs on just about every local issue.
But really, could you imagine how a debate between Mator Pawlowski and Dennis Pearson might play out?! I honest to God wish I lived in Allentown so I could sign a nominating petition for Pearson. He might not have a snowball's chance in hell of winning, but by God, it sure as hell would be entertaining!
Teacher is a Porn Star? if only our local School Districts had these kinds of Problems
Everybody was shocked recently when a new kid showed up for his first day of classes at William Allen High School packing heat.
I wasn't amazed at all that it was someone in authority that busted him, and that not one of his schoolmates ratted him out.
It kind of says something about our culture in that the kids didn't seem fazed at all. Nor should we be surprised that privately there is speculation that there are likely a small number of students carrying in the Allentown school district everyday.
But if I had a choice between kids packing heat, and Teachers being porn stars, I have to say I would rather live with the latter.
A three female judicial review panel has ruled that Stacie Halas, 32, is unfit to teach science at Richard Hatdock Intermediate school in Oxnard California.
So out in California (Where else would THIS happen?) a teacher was fired from her Middle school teaching position after some of the kids in her classes saw those videos online and linked her to them. Remember that 80's hit "I'm hot for Teacher" by Van Halen? I went to an all male Catholic High School, my study hall was never like that.
Anyway, in the big picture, as we worry about kids dodging bullets in the class room, why would you fire a SCIENCE teacher who likely can explain sex education better than anybody else in the district?
Honestly, It would not surprise me if she moved to the Lehigh Valley and was hired right away, either by the East Penn or Parkland School districts, because they spend tax money like drunken sailors. Allentown wouldn't hire her, she's overqualified, they can't afford her, and there's always the possibility that a member of the School board would require her to prove she has adequate experience.
I wasn't amazed at all that it was someone in authority that busted him, and that not one of his schoolmates ratted him out.
It kind of says something about our culture in that the kids didn't seem fazed at all. Nor should we be surprised that privately there is speculation that there are likely a small number of students carrying in the Allentown school district everyday.
But if I had a choice between kids packing heat, and Teachers being porn stars, I have to say I would rather live with the latter.
A three female judicial review panel has ruled that Stacie Halas, 32, is unfit to teach science at Richard Hatdock Intermediate school in Oxnard California.
So out in California (Where else would THIS happen?) a teacher was fired from her Middle school teaching position after some of the kids in her classes saw those videos online and linked her to them. Remember that 80's hit "I'm hot for Teacher" by Van Halen? I went to an all male Catholic High School, my study hall was never like that.
Anyway, in the big picture, as we worry about kids dodging bullets in the class room, why would you fire a SCIENCE teacher who likely can explain sex education better than anybody else in the district?
Honestly, It would not surprise me if she moved to the Lehigh Valley and was hired right away, either by the East Penn or Parkland School districts, because they spend tax money like drunken sailors. Allentown wouldn't hire her, she's overqualified, they can't afford her, and there's always the possibility that a member of the School board would require her to prove she has adequate experience.
It's Mayhem, not Morning in America
It has been a month since evil came to the Sandy Hook Elementary School in Newtown Connecticut, I waited to post until I could do it clearly.
Like anyone else, I bow my head in prayer everytime I hear about some nutjob who starts shooting into crowds of unarmed innocents, be it a theater, a school, or anywhere else.
I don't like that certain weapons are so readily available, and I cringe when NRA "Spokespeople" say the answer is more weapons, and that schools should be patrolled by armed security.
But trying to control the availability of assault weapons in this Country is like trying to raise the Titanic and sail it into New York Harbor. There are at best estimates, somewhere between 300 million and 500 million firearms in the hands of private citizens in America.
Does anybody really think you can get a handle on even 10 % of them that are NOT in the system?
REALLY?!
I wish that we could put a cork in the bottle and lock the genie back in, but I don't think that will ever happen. The only way to even make a dent in this cycle of violence is to make adequate mental health treatment readily available, and in some cases, FORCE People to accept care. Yes, that idea brings about threats that it could be abused, but it is about time that we put the rights of everyone to walk freely and without fear in the community above the rights of a crazy person to scare everyone.
I have a carry permit. I rarely have need of it, but I like having it on occasion. I believe anyone who can meet the criteria should be able to get one, but I also feel that the criteria could be toughened up. I don't believe that the average citizen has a right to own a semi automatic assault weapon. Firearms have only one purpose: KILLING. And you should only shoot to kill as an absolute last resort to defend your life or the life of another.
What does it say about American society that we all need to be armed to the teeth to prevent killing each other? Why do we risk allowing people who it is reasonable to suggest aren't always going to act responsibly to have deadly weapons? Why can't anyone see how this circle of violence has evolved in America? We need more firearms to protect us from the firearms that are already out there?
My bottom line is this: I don't worry about me acting irresponsibly with a firearm, but I do worry about others. Our constitution (at least in my interpretation) guarantees me the right to protect myself and my property from others. I am actually glad that Pennsylvania has the "Castle" defense on the books. I also don't believe I need military grade weapons to ensure that. Either a Mossberg Pump Shotgun or a Glock 9 MM will do me just fine, thank you
But that doesn't stop stupid crazy people from picking up a firearm (and I mean any firearm, from 22 pistol to an M-16) and randomly firing away. We have all these laws on the books that haven't stopped anyone who commits murder from doing it. What makes us think one more law will make a difference?
There is a saying that guns don't kill people, people kill people.
I would add that gun laws don't stop people from killing other people, but I truly believe that a potential victim with their own firearm at least has a fighting chance.
Now before you go thinking I am actually for arming everybody, I would add that I think arming teachers and bringing more weapons into schools is about a bad idea as there could be. We are promoting a cycle of violence that seems without end. If we start arming teachers and having armed officers patrolling the schools, we are telling kids that to expect violence is the norm, not the exception. We are turning up the speed on the evolution of our culture into what some might call the "Culture of Death." So who is to blame?
We can't blame video games.
We can't blame Hollywood
We can't blame Firearm Manufacturers
We can't blame the media
We can't blame the Government for not protecting us.
Again, who should we blame?
OURSELVES
This is the America that we have made. We voted for the politicians, we buy the stuff that the ad people market to us. They sell us what their surveys tell them we want, and like it or not, we seem to like what we have got. The Allstate Insurance Commercial has it right, they say the "Mayhem" Commercials are the most popular they ever had. Mayhem, just what America wants, and just what America gets.
We made this country what it is. If we don't like where it is headed, it is up to us to change it, and change starts with each and every individual. I don't know where to start, but I do know we better start soon.
Like anyone else, I bow my head in prayer everytime I hear about some nutjob who starts shooting into crowds of unarmed innocents, be it a theater, a school, or anywhere else.
I don't like that certain weapons are so readily available, and I cringe when NRA "Spokespeople" say the answer is more weapons, and that schools should be patrolled by armed security.
But trying to control the availability of assault weapons in this Country is like trying to raise the Titanic and sail it into New York Harbor. There are at best estimates, somewhere between 300 million and 500 million firearms in the hands of private citizens in America.
Does anybody really think you can get a handle on even 10 % of them that are NOT in the system?
REALLY?!
I wish that we could put a cork in the bottle and lock the genie back in, but I don't think that will ever happen. The only way to even make a dent in this cycle of violence is to make adequate mental health treatment readily available, and in some cases, FORCE People to accept care. Yes, that idea brings about threats that it could be abused, but it is about time that we put the rights of everyone to walk freely and without fear in the community above the rights of a crazy person to scare everyone.
I have a carry permit. I rarely have need of it, but I like having it on occasion. I believe anyone who can meet the criteria should be able to get one, but I also feel that the criteria could be toughened up. I don't believe that the average citizen has a right to own a semi automatic assault weapon. Firearms have only one purpose: KILLING. And you should only shoot to kill as an absolute last resort to defend your life or the life of another.
What does it say about American society that we all need to be armed to the teeth to prevent killing each other? Why do we risk allowing people who it is reasonable to suggest aren't always going to act responsibly to have deadly weapons? Why can't anyone see how this circle of violence has evolved in America? We need more firearms to protect us from the firearms that are already out there?
My bottom line is this: I don't worry about me acting irresponsibly with a firearm, but I do worry about others. Our constitution (at least in my interpretation) guarantees me the right to protect myself and my property from others. I am actually glad that Pennsylvania has the "Castle" defense on the books. I also don't believe I need military grade weapons to ensure that. Either a Mossberg Pump Shotgun or a Glock 9 MM will do me just fine, thank you
But that doesn't stop stupid crazy people from picking up a firearm (and I mean any firearm, from 22 pistol to an M-16) and randomly firing away. We have all these laws on the books that haven't stopped anyone who commits murder from doing it. What makes us think one more law will make a difference?
There is a saying that guns don't kill people, people kill people.
I would add that gun laws don't stop people from killing other people, but I truly believe that a potential victim with their own firearm at least has a fighting chance.
Now before you go thinking I am actually for arming everybody, I would add that I think arming teachers and bringing more weapons into schools is about a bad idea as there could be. We are promoting a cycle of violence that seems without end. If we start arming teachers and having armed officers patrolling the schools, we are telling kids that to expect violence is the norm, not the exception. We are turning up the speed on the evolution of our culture into what some might call the "Culture of Death." So who is to blame?
We can't blame video games.
We can't blame Hollywood
We can't blame Firearm Manufacturers
We can't blame the media
We can't blame the Government for not protecting us.
Again, who should we blame?
OURSELVES
This is the America that we have made. We voted for the politicians, we buy the stuff that the ad people market to us. They sell us what their surveys tell them we want, and like it or not, we seem to like what we have got. The Allstate Insurance Commercial has it right, they say the "Mayhem" Commercials are the most popular they ever had. Mayhem, just what America wants, and just what America gets.
We made this country what it is. If we don't like where it is headed, it is up to us to change it, and change starts with each and every individual. I don't know where to start, but I do know we better start soon.
Friday, January 11, 2013
Yeah, I started posting again.
It didn't take long for the email to fill up once people realized I was back at it. I never really stopped. I wrote posts all the time, I just didn't publish them. Much of that was I didn't feel like taking sides on some issues, and part of it was a growing feeling of powerlessness on my part.
I think our Government is broken. The politicians are polarizing, and the media spurs on the hatefulness for ratings sake while simultaneously (and Hypocritically) decrying it.
All I can do is give my point of view and try and offer it in a reasonable manner. I've reached that point in life after 50 that I don't really give a damn whether people like what I think or say or not. I'm going to speak and write what I think is the truth, and you are free to diagree.
I think our Government is broken. The politicians are polarizing, and the media spurs on the hatefulness for ratings sake while simultaneously (and Hypocritically) decrying it.
All I can do is give my point of view and try and offer it in a reasonable manner. I've reached that point in life after 50 that I don't really give a damn whether people like what I think or say or not. I'm going to speak and write what I think is the truth, and you are free to diagree.
Thursday, January 10, 2013
Why the Allentown Water question matters to the rest of Lehigh County
I am a firm believer in representative Democracy. I also am a firm believer in the right of the governed to enact legislation through the ballot box by initiative when the public feels those they have elected to govern don't adequately address an important issue.
At this point, I will not give a view on whether or not I agree with either side in the issue of whether or not the Allentown water organization should be privatized, or leased.
But I will point out an inconvenient truth or two. One is that a private operator more than likely will raise rates to recoup their investment, indirectly causing issues for suburban water customers of the Lehigh County Authority. If you don't believe that could happen READ THIS
And I just don't mean homeowners, I mean industrial users as well.
Time after time, I hear from many of my suburban neighbors that they think whatever is happening in Allentown Government has no effect on them. The same people who close their eyes to Meth labs in the Suburbs like Lower Macungie wishfully pretend that all issues stop at the Allentown City line. But that is not true.
The Lehigh County Authority purchases quite a bit of water from Allentown so that those living in McMansion land can have a nice hot shower and flush their toilet all day long. The suburbs do have a dog in this fight, but they have been ignoring it. They won't wake up until the for profit people raise their rates substantially years down the line, when it is too late
Allentown Mayor Ed Pawlowski has at least tried to find solutions to funding problems in the city.
I don't always agree with him, but I respect him. Do you think cutting services is a better solution?
It is easy to criticize the man when you don't have a solution of your own. Personally, If I still lived in Allentown, I would be against the 50 year lease. But I don't have an alternative to the pension fund crisis, and I don't know what I would do. This is comparable to what our Walking dead County Commissioners are doing, just it's from the Democratic mayor of Allentown.
I give all sides credit for trying to do something, whether I think it is right or wrong.
But on the water issue, I won't be surprised if when the campaign finance reports go online, I see a whole bunch of money being given to both sides from sources outside Allentown.
For the private operator it is about profit, and for the public, it is about control of a vital resource.
And that is where the money will start talking. There are three Upper mac industrial tenants that I can name right off the bat that use Lehigh County Authority water at their facilities, Coca-Cola, Nestle Waters, and soon Ocean Spray. How do you think rising water rates would push their bottom line?
There are going to be some big players putting money into the water ballot issue. Don't doubt it, this is going to get even messier down the road.
So the question is, do you want to see Allentown meet its' safety forces pension costs in the short term, by having the costs for those pensions spread out across the County to residents and industrial users outside the city?
Or you can be against the privatization/lease, and tell the Mayor to find another solution.
What is the best answer? When you think about what rising water rates might mean to three large companies that employ thousands, you start wondering what the right answer is, and what we think is best for all.
Puts it in a whole new light doesn't it?
Think about it.
At this point, I will not give a view on whether or not I agree with either side in the issue of whether or not the Allentown water organization should be privatized, or leased.
But I will point out an inconvenient truth or two. One is that a private operator more than likely will raise rates to recoup their investment, indirectly causing issues for suburban water customers of the Lehigh County Authority. If you don't believe that could happen READ THIS
And I just don't mean homeowners, I mean industrial users as well.
Time after time, I hear from many of my suburban neighbors that they think whatever is happening in Allentown Government has no effect on them. The same people who close their eyes to Meth labs in the Suburbs like Lower Macungie wishfully pretend that all issues stop at the Allentown City line. But that is not true.
The Lehigh County Authority purchases quite a bit of water from Allentown so that those living in McMansion land can have a nice hot shower and flush their toilet all day long. The suburbs do have a dog in this fight, but they have been ignoring it. They won't wake up until the for profit people raise their rates substantially years down the line, when it is too late
Allentown Mayor Ed Pawlowski has at least tried to find solutions to funding problems in the city.
I don't always agree with him, but I respect him. Do you think cutting services is a better solution?
It is easy to criticize the man when you don't have a solution of your own. Personally, If I still lived in Allentown, I would be against the 50 year lease. But I don't have an alternative to the pension fund crisis, and I don't know what I would do. This is comparable to what our Walking dead County Commissioners are doing, just it's from the Democratic mayor of Allentown.
I give all sides credit for trying to do something, whether I think it is right or wrong.
But on the water issue, I won't be surprised if when the campaign finance reports go online, I see a whole bunch of money being given to both sides from sources outside Allentown.
For the private operator it is about profit, and for the public, it is about control of a vital resource.
And that is where the money will start talking. There are three Upper mac industrial tenants that I can name right off the bat that use Lehigh County Authority water at their facilities, Coca-Cola, Nestle Waters, and soon Ocean Spray. How do you think rising water rates would push their bottom line?
There are going to be some big players putting money into the water ballot issue. Don't doubt it, this is going to get even messier down the road.
So the question is, do you want to see Allentown meet its' safety forces pension costs in the short term, by having the costs for those pensions spread out across the County to residents and industrial users outside the city?
Or you can be against the privatization/lease, and tell the Mayor to find another solution.
What is the best answer? When you think about what rising water rates might mean to three large companies that employ thousands, you start wondering what the right answer is, and what we think is best for all.
Puts it in a whole new light doesn't it?
Think about it.
Wednesday, January 9, 2013
THe Bimbo Bread Co! how Appropriate for Upper Macungie Township
Bimbo!! ( Click on the link for the Wikipedia definition). How appropriate for a municipal body (The Upper Macungie Township supervisors) that has whored irself at every opportunity to bring in companies to use a piece of warehouse space (built or not.) Isn't it ironic that the board of commissioners would decry the traffic increase brought about by one employer, AMAZON! yet approve an action that will bring several hundred bread trucks into the community evey day? Will Bimbo pay for a traffic light as Amazon did?
Read all about it for FREE. here!
I am happy for the jobs, but I understand that Bimbo's New Jersey facility might be losing jobs. I am still checking on that. If that is the case. how many new jobs are actually being created, and not transferred?
Why can't the mainstream media do some fact checling and reporting on their own?
Read all about it for FREE. here!
I am happy for the jobs, but I understand that Bimbo's New Jersey facility might be losing jobs. I am still checking on that. If that is the case. how many new jobs are actually being created, and not transferred?
Why can't the mainstream media do some fact checling and reporting on their own?
Tuesday, January 8, 2013
Lehigh County Commissioners are a Tea Party version of the Walking Dead
I love The Lehigh County Commissioners. The Tea party fearsome Foursome (Ott, Scheller, Mazziotti, and Schware) have stayed true to their ideology, while Mr Creighton votes with them merely to try and save himself from a primary challenger.
BAD Brad OSBORNE! Shame on you for putting the good of all LEHIGH County residents ahead of political propaganda. Vic Mazziotti showed you! So now Lisa Scheller, er, Mrs Wayne Woodman, is the chair. The bad news for Tom Creighton is that the Tea party gang has not, and never will forget that you convinced them to make Bill Hansell the County Executive. Just ask Brad Osborne about their punitive side.
Mr Creighton doesn't want to believe it, but I'm betting Wayne Woodman has somebody lined up to challenge him in the primary. (The initials D.J. possibly?) Percy Daugherty knows what is coming, but I'm betting Percy wins anyway, in both the primary and the General. And don't be surprised if Stan Bielecki gets involved in what has been redistricted as David Jones seat.
The thing is, Mike Schware is vulnerable as his district is now constituted. And with Bill Leinart running for Creighton's seat, that puts it in play, because if an extreme tea party player wins the primary, it makes the general a hell of a lot more viable for Democrats.
Wayne Woodman is trying to purge his party of anybody he doesn't see as a true believer, and in the process, may actually hurt their overall chances.
Rumor has it that Wayne has actually approached current Lower Mac Supervisor (and SUPER REALTOR!) Ryan Conrad about running for Executive, and been rebuffed. I had heard that Lisa Scheller wasn't all that interested in being Executive or Commissioner's chair, but now she is the latter.
Insiders downtown tell me that Scott ott has no intention of running for exec, but in this upside down world, I'm going to wait until all the petitions are filed to believe it.
One last name I heard was Ryan McKenzie, but I don't think he would do it, it is beneath his station in life. I can't see mr Harvard doing it, at least while he is still listing his voting address as his mom's house.
So that's where it sits for now, we have the Lehigh County Commissioners agenda controlled by 4 ideologically driven citizens who put ideology over practicality and governing for the good of all, plus one R commissioner who wants to stay on their good side.
Watching all the shifting alliances makes me think of my favorite TV show, "The Walking Dead"
Draw your on Conclusions on which character is which, But I see Mazziotti as the Governor's doctor who thinks the dead are still people, Woodman as the unelected Governor, and Scheller as Andrea, Ott is likely Merle and Schware is his brother Darryl. Unfortunately the Prison folk don't leave me much to choose from our resident Dems. I guess we will have to see who steps into what role in the coming weeks.
BAD Brad OSBORNE! Shame on you for putting the good of all LEHIGH County residents ahead of political propaganda. Vic Mazziotti showed you! So now Lisa Scheller, er, Mrs Wayne Woodman, is the chair. The bad news for Tom Creighton is that the Tea party gang has not, and never will forget that you convinced them to make Bill Hansell the County Executive. Just ask Brad Osborne about their punitive side.
Mr Creighton doesn't want to believe it, but I'm betting Wayne Woodman has somebody lined up to challenge him in the primary. (The initials D.J. possibly?) Percy Daugherty knows what is coming, but I'm betting Percy wins anyway, in both the primary and the General. And don't be surprised if Stan Bielecki gets involved in what has been redistricted as David Jones seat.
The thing is, Mike Schware is vulnerable as his district is now constituted. And with Bill Leinart running for Creighton's seat, that puts it in play, because if an extreme tea party player wins the primary, it makes the general a hell of a lot more viable for Democrats.
Wayne Woodman is trying to purge his party of anybody he doesn't see as a true believer, and in the process, may actually hurt their overall chances.
Rumor has it that Wayne has actually approached current Lower Mac Supervisor (and SUPER REALTOR!) Ryan Conrad about running for Executive, and been rebuffed. I had heard that Lisa Scheller wasn't all that interested in being Executive or Commissioner's chair, but now she is the latter.
Insiders downtown tell me that Scott ott has no intention of running for exec, but in this upside down world, I'm going to wait until all the petitions are filed to believe it.
One last name I heard was Ryan McKenzie, but I don't think he would do it, it is beneath his station in life. I can't see mr Harvard doing it, at least while he is still listing his voting address as his mom's house.
So that's where it sits for now, we have the Lehigh County Commissioners agenda controlled by 4 ideologically driven citizens who put ideology over practicality and governing for the good of all, plus one R commissioner who wants to stay on their good side.
Watching all the shifting alliances makes me think of my favorite TV show, "The Walking Dead"
Draw your on Conclusions on which character is which, But I see Mazziotti as the Governor's doctor who thinks the dead are still people, Woodman as the unelected Governor, and Scheller as Andrea, Ott is likely Merle and Schware is his brother Darryl. Unfortunately the Prison folk don't leave me much to choose from our resident Dems. I guess we will have to see who steps into what role in the coming weeks.
Monday, November 12, 2012
Even Fox pokes fun at Karl Rove
http://youtu.be/Viyne8F06eU
Click on the above link to see what witty view the"Simpsons" had of Karl Rove's election night tantrum.
Click on the above link to see what witty view the"Simpsons" had of Karl Rove's election night tantrum.
Thursday, November 8, 2012
Prediction Recap
Okay, so here it is Thursday, and I picked all the winners correctly.
So lets take a look at my margins.
I wrote that I believed President Obama would be lucky to get 2.9 million votes. As of today on the Pa department of State Website, he received 2.86 million. Nailed that one, but I thought Romney would get around 2.7 million, slightly surpassing the 2.6+ million John McCain polled in 2008. On that I was way off, as Romney barely cracked 2.5 million votes.
Overall, Pa turnout was down over half a million from 2008. Yes, turnout was heavy, but it DID NOT MATCH 2008. The big message here is that many Republicans were not as enthusiastic for Romney as I thought.
In the United States Senate, I predicted Bob Casey 54 to 46 %. his final margin was 8.9%. I call that a winner.
I also wrote that Kathleen Kane would defeat David Freed for Attorney General by a likely 55-45% margin.
I hit that one dead on, but what really impressed me was Kathleen Kane being the only candidate on the Statewide ballot to crack the 3 million vote mark. That was impressive.She outperformed President Obama at the top of the ticket by almost 150,000 votes. That can not be ignored.
Finally, I think it was a foregone conclusion that Charlie Dent would win reelection to Congress. But I really didn't think it would be within 15 points, which it was (12.5% in fact). Dougherty ran a nonexistant campaign for the most part, and in many ways I think he may have hurt the Democrats below him.
Charlie Dent won Lehigh County by 6,000 votes, while President Obama won Lehigh county by almost 11,000 votes. That is a 17,000 vote swing. Dent won by 37,500 votes in the district overall.
Stay tuned, because one precinct alone kept Justin Simmons on the statehouse, and there is an interesting story behind it.
So lets take a look at my margins.
I wrote that I believed President Obama would be lucky to get 2.9 million votes. As of today on the Pa department of State Website, he received 2.86 million. Nailed that one, but I thought Romney would get around 2.7 million, slightly surpassing the 2.6+ million John McCain polled in 2008. On that I was way off, as Romney barely cracked 2.5 million votes.
Overall, Pa turnout was down over half a million from 2008. Yes, turnout was heavy, but it DID NOT MATCH 2008. The big message here is that many Republicans were not as enthusiastic for Romney as I thought.
In the United States Senate, I predicted Bob Casey 54 to 46 %. his final margin was 8.9%. I call that a winner.
I also wrote that Kathleen Kane would defeat David Freed for Attorney General by a likely 55-45% margin.
I hit that one dead on, but what really impressed me was Kathleen Kane being the only candidate on the Statewide ballot to crack the 3 million vote mark. That was impressive.She outperformed President Obama at the top of the ticket by almost 150,000 votes. That can not be ignored.
Finally, I think it was a foregone conclusion that Charlie Dent would win reelection to Congress. But I really didn't think it would be within 15 points, which it was (12.5% in fact). Dougherty ran a nonexistant campaign for the most part, and in many ways I think he may have hurt the Democrats below him.
Charlie Dent won Lehigh County by 6,000 votes, while President Obama won Lehigh county by almost 11,000 votes. That is a 17,000 vote swing. Dent won by 37,500 votes in the district overall.
Stay tuned, because one precinct alone kept Justin Simmons on the statehouse, and there is an interesting story behind it.
Monday, November 5, 2012
Democracy is a messy thing to predict, but here goes
I spend far too much time gathering, reading, analyzing and running algorithms with data I have gathered from past elections.
For instance I can tell you that in 2008, in the state of Pennsylvania, Barack Obama received 3,276,363 votes (54.4%), John McCain 2,655,885 (44.2%), and there were approximately 83,000 votes spead across other less well known candidates. That means just over 6,100,000 Pennsylvanains participated in 2008.
I used my uwn personal formula to come to my predictions, and I believe voter turnout in PA will not quite be as high as it was in 2008. I think turnout will be down at least 100,000 , maybe more. I will be surprised if turnout cracks 6 million again. I have factored in voter motivation, the weather being forecast as nearly 20 degrees colder than 2008, as well as public apathy towards the political process.
That brings me to my prediction as to who will win in PA.
I believe President Obama will not receive 3 million votes. I think he will be lucky to get 2.9 million. That leaves the door open for Mitt Romney . Romney will surpass John McCain's 2.6 million, and even George Bush's 2.7 million in 2004. His problem is that the same people who were energized to vote for Obama aren't switching sides, they are merely staying home. For Romney it all comes down to how many Obama voters in 2008 stay home, and to a smaller bit how many Independents that voted for Obama in 2008 go with Romney after ignoring McCain. Romney needs 4 out of 5 Independent voters (Close to 650,000 will vote in PA this year) to embrace him.
I believe Obama will win PA, but by a margin of less than 3%. I think it will be a 51.5% - 48.5% tace at best for Obama. I think it will be less than 100,000 votes in difference either way, and it is not out of the question that Romney could win. I think turnout in the Dem sreonghold of Philly has to be at least 90% of what it was in 2008 for Obama, and if it isn't, all bets are off, I am watching three Pa Congressional districts for a read, Fattah.s, Fitzpatrick, and Critz, Those are three diverse districts for voter demographic under my criteria. Cumulatively they will give me a cross section of what the results will be.
As for PA-15, Charlie Dent will win handily, Likely around 65% or more. I will do a post mortem on that race later. The other two biggiies I predict are Casey over Smith 54 to 46% in the U.S. Senate, and Kathleen Kane by a similar margin, possibly greater, maybe 55-45% in the AG race.
Now get out and vote!.
For instance I can tell you that in 2008, in the state of Pennsylvania, Barack Obama received 3,276,363 votes (54.4%), John McCain 2,655,885 (44.2%), and there were approximately 83,000 votes spead across other less well known candidates. That means just over 6,100,000 Pennsylvanains participated in 2008.
I used my uwn personal formula to come to my predictions, and I believe voter turnout in PA will not quite be as high as it was in 2008. I think turnout will be down at least 100,000 , maybe more. I will be surprised if turnout cracks 6 million again. I have factored in voter motivation, the weather being forecast as nearly 20 degrees colder than 2008, as well as public apathy towards the political process.
That brings me to my prediction as to who will win in PA.
I believe President Obama will not receive 3 million votes. I think he will be lucky to get 2.9 million. That leaves the door open for Mitt Romney . Romney will surpass John McCain's 2.6 million, and even George Bush's 2.7 million in 2004. His problem is that the same people who were energized to vote for Obama aren't switching sides, they are merely staying home. For Romney it all comes down to how many Obama voters in 2008 stay home, and to a smaller bit how many Independents that voted for Obama in 2008 go with Romney after ignoring McCain. Romney needs 4 out of 5 Independent voters (Close to 650,000 will vote in PA this year) to embrace him.
I believe Obama will win PA, but by a margin of less than 3%. I think it will be a 51.5% - 48.5% tace at best for Obama. I think it will be less than 100,000 votes in difference either way, and it is not out of the question that Romney could win. I think turnout in the Dem sreonghold of Philly has to be at least 90% of what it was in 2008 for Obama, and if it isn't, all bets are off, I am watching three Pa Congressional districts for a read, Fattah.s, Fitzpatrick, and Critz, Those are three diverse districts for voter demographic under my criteria. Cumulatively they will give me a cross section of what the results will be.
As for PA-15, Charlie Dent will win handily, Likely around 65% or more. I will do a post mortem on that race later. The other two biggiies I predict are Casey over Smith 54 to 46% in the U.S. Senate, and Kathleen Kane by a similar margin, possibly greater, maybe 55-45% in the AG race.
Now get out and vote!.
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