For at least the third time in twelve years, Dr. Percy Dougherty is going to get a Primary Challenger from his own Republican Party. In 2005, he barely beat off a challenge from current Upper Macungie Township employee and Lower Macungie resident Jim Lancsek, winning the primary with 1802 votes to Lancsek's 1578.
That's what happens when you try to govern for the good of all the people in your district, at least if you are a Republican.
Then in 2009, Percy fended off a challenge from a less formidable candidate, Mark Prinzinger, defeating him 1842 to 1329. Prinzinger had served with a flawed East Penn School board, and it could be argued that he suffered because of it. (also, Prinzinge lacked the finances to pull it off.) But this time is different.
In 2012/2013, Dr. Dougherty has had the cojones to stand for responsible governing, and stood up to the ill named "REFORM TEAM" in his own party. So Republican Chair Wayne Woodman has recruited Scott Aquila, a failed East Penn School board candidate in 2011, to run against Dr. Dougherty.
Now you might think there won't be a problem, that the good doctor would likely survive. But the problem this time is that Wayne Woodman is bound and determined to get a Commissioners board that gets in line with him and his right arm, Scott Ott. Sources tell me Mr. Woodman is determined to spend whatever it takes to defeat Dr. Dougherty, doing to Percy what he did to Dean Browning in 2011.
In 2011, Woodman mobilized the base of true believer Republicans against Browning ousting him.
There is no reason to doubt that he could not do it again. To that end, I turn to my old friend "The Numbers" who we all know don't lie.
In the newly redrawn Commissioner district #2, there are approximately 21,916 registered Republicans.
If you look at voter turnout in 2005 and 2009, you can easily see that less than 15% of the registered R's turned out. It is easy to see how Wayne Woodman could spend $20k and get the 2000 votes needed to boot Percy Dougherty.
No one thought it would happen to Dean Browning in 2011, but it did.
And Democrats should be worried. As of November 2012 there are 20,396 registered D's in the district as it is now drawn. The R's only have a registration advantage of of 1520 voters, or less than 3.1 5 of actual registered voters in the district. A good turnout machine could even this up real quick.
The turnout in those precincts by registered D's in 2009 in the GENERAL election was in the vicinity of 15 to 18%, while R turnout was almost 30% on the average across the 24 precincts. Throw in that in 2009,of the 11% of the 7,777 (Yes that number is correct, a very odd anomaly) registered Indy/other party voters who participated went almost 3 to 1 for the R candidate, it appears the R candidate that wins the Primary has a cakewalk in November. (Note:Presently there appears to be somewhere between 7800 and 8200 Indy/3rd party registrants, depending on which source you look at.)
Are the Dems going to sit back and surrender the seat?
I live in the 2nd district, and I can tell you that I will do whatever it takes to keep that from happening. The three reformers have already pursuaded a possible R Primary challenger to Tom Creighton not to run in District #1, and they have a solid 4 seats. Sitting back and not contesting seat # 2 is tantamount to all out surrender. That would give them the 5 seats needed, along with possible the County Executive, to govern without question on the local level.
Isn't it Ironic and a bit hypocritical that the same folks who complain about the Democratic Party hold on Allentown would plan a County dictatorship of their own?
We get the government we vote for, and we get what we deserve if we don't put up a fight. If Democrats don't put up a fight, we are going to be allowing the Republican Party as a whole to make the decisions for all County wide.
Saturday, January 26, 2013
Friday, January 25, 2013
Scott Ott is fooling himself
.........and unfortunately for far too many Lehigh County voters, he is fooling them too.
Let us get something straight here. It is true that Scott Ott ONLY lost to Don Cunningham by 862 votes in 2009. But ESPN has a TV show called "NUMBERS DON'T LIE", and a closer look at voter turnout in 2009 compared to the turnout in 2005 tells a different Story.
In 2005, Don Cunningham received 33,263 votes to Jane Ervin's 20,721. At that time, there were 200,739 registered voters in Lehigh County. According to Lehigh County's own data, 57,638 citizens cast votes that November, for a turnout of 28.7% The undervote was 3,634, or 1.8%
In 2009, Don Cunningham received 21,063 votes to Scott Ott's 20,201. In 2009 there were 222,980 registered voters in Lehigh County, with 44,637 participating in Democracy for a turnout of 20.02%
The undervote of voters who participated but didn't cast ballots in the Executive race was 3433, or just about 1.4%
A couple of big points to be made here. First, in 2005 Don Cunningham was running against a Republican who had pushed through a 70% property tax increase. This issue motivated voters to the polls. Second, in 2009, nobody gave Ott a chance exactly because Cunningham had done a good job, and people thought his reelection was easily assured.
Third, I would like to point out that Scott Ott received 520 fewer votes than Jane Ervin did. If we stay with his logic, then people like him less than Jane Ervin.
Another thing to remember is that voters were burned out in 2009, after a raucous 2008 year of electioneering, In 2013, I believe the mood of the Country, and yes that belleweather place we call home, the Lehigh Valley, is shifting. Voters are tired of political games being played with every little article just to obstruct one side or the other.
Mr Ott and his allies on the County Commissioners seem to have decided to forget that the purpose of serving in elected office is to take care of the people's business, and see to the welfare of the entire Community. Their idea of REFORM is to protect the interests of the wealthiest few at the expense of the rest of us. I agree that we have to be fiscally aware and watch our pennies. I agree that we should look at everything to see where we can save money, and I agree that there is always room to improve how government functions.
But government can't function by unilaterally proposing $5 million dollar cuts without specifics. A society is only as strong as its' weakest links, and we can't abandon our obligations because some feel that a few recipients don't deserve assistance or might be abusing the program. I will touch on this more in a future post, but most of the human resources money is state and federal pass through cash, and shouldn't be traeted with disdain as the reform crew has shown.
When one is elected, I believe the person has a responsibility to weigh the best interests of all. Our Government is supposed to be "For the People" not "For the IDEOLOGY" of any political Party.
We need people in the elected positions of Government who can work to build consensus and find common solutions, not ideologically blind theocrats whose mantra is "Our way or no way."
Scott Ott is not the leader that Lehigh County needs in the next 4 years. Unfortunately, so far no one has stepped forward to offer an alternative. We won't know for sure until March 12th when the nominating petitions are filed what the answer to that question might be.
Let us get something straight here. It is true that Scott Ott ONLY lost to Don Cunningham by 862 votes in 2009. But ESPN has a TV show called "NUMBERS DON'T LIE", and a closer look at voter turnout in 2009 compared to the turnout in 2005 tells a different Story.
In 2005, Don Cunningham received 33,263 votes to Jane Ervin's 20,721. At that time, there were 200,739 registered voters in Lehigh County. According to Lehigh County's own data, 57,638 citizens cast votes that November, for a turnout of 28.7% The undervote was 3,634, or 1.8%
In 2009, Don Cunningham received 21,063 votes to Scott Ott's 20,201. In 2009 there were 222,980 registered voters in Lehigh County, with 44,637 participating in Democracy for a turnout of 20.02%
The undervote of voters who participated but didn't cast ballots in the Executive race was 3433, or just about 1.4%
A couple of big points to be made here. First, in 2005 Don Cunningham was running against a Republican who had pushed through a 70% property tax increase. This issue motivated voters to the polls. Second, in 2009, nobody gave Ott a chance exactly because Cunningham had done a good job, and people thought his reelection was easily assured.
Third, I would like to point out that Scott Ott received 520 fewer votes than Jane Ervin did. If we stay with his logic, then people like him less than Jane Ervin.
Another thing to remember is that voters were burned out in 2009, after a raucous 2008 year of electioneering, In 2013, I believe the mood of the Country, and yes that belleweather place we call home, the Lehigh Valley, is shifting. Voters are tired of political games being played with every little article just to obstruct one side or the other.
Mr Ott and his allies on the County Commissioners seem to have decided to forget that the purpose of serving in elected office is to take care of the people's business, and see to the welfare of the entire Community. Their idea of REFORM is to protect the interests of the wealthiest few at the expense of the rest of us. I agree that we have to be fiscally aware and watch our pennies. I agree that we should look at everything to see where we can save money, and I agree that there is always room to improve how government functions.
But government can't function by unilaterally proposing $5 million dollar cuts without specifics. A society is only as strong as its' weakest links, and we can't abandon our obligations because some feel that a few recipients don't deserve assistance or might be abusing the program. I will touch on this more in a future post, but most of the human resources money is state and federal pass through cash, and shouldn't be traeted with disdain as the reform crew has shown.
When one is elected, I believe the person has a responsibility to weigh the best interests of all. Our Government is supposed to be "For the People" not "For the IDEOLOGY" of any political Party.
We need people in the elected positions of Government who can work to build consensus and find common solutions, not ideologically blind theocrats whose mantra is "Our way or no way."
Scott Ott is not the leader that Lehigh County needs in the next 4 years. Unfortunately, so far no one has stepped forward to offer an alternative. We won't know for sure until March 12th when the nominating petitions are filed what the answer to that question might be.
Friday, January 18, 2013
What should Governor Corbett Privatize next?
Tom Corbett doesn't want to be the first governor in over 40 years to only serve one term. He doesn't want to be remembered as "FRACKING TOM CORBETT!" decades from now when Pennsylvania's tap water is so contaminated you can use it as lighter fluid.
Nor does he want to be remembered as the guy who as Attorney General took his sweet time going about investigating convicted serial pedophile Jerry Sandusky, and literally killing Joe Paterno.
Also, Governor Corbett took a lot of campaign contributions from people who had agendas, and if he does get voted out, time is short to meet those obligations.
So our Governor has strongarmed through a deal to privatize the Lottery. The only stop gap in front of him is that his Successor as elected Attorney General, Kathleen Kane, gets an opportunity to review what has now been pointed out to a possibly not so beneficial financial deal for Pennsylvania. We are going to have to see how that plays out.
But while the Lottery Soap opera plays, the Governor has put out a Spin off show several years in development, SELL THE LIQUOR STORES!
I really don't know how I feel about this, I grew up in the Midwest where you can buy Vodka in the grocery store, and beer at the gas station, and I kind of miss that.
But my main point is that it seems the Governor wants to privatize anything he can to make a buck.
So I have a suggestion: Why not just privatize all of government, elected officials and all jobs? We could outsource it to the far east like everything else and save Billions. No more crisis with the public employees retirement system!
I'm sure there is a Company somewhere overseas that could import laborers willing to work for a dollar a day.
By now you have to realize I am not serious, and I am making light of the stuation.
The truth is I want the residents of Pennsylvania to wake up and take a look at what the elected legislature, controlled by one party, and their elected Governor, of that same party are doing. We need to ask ourselves if this is what WE THE PEOPLE of Pennsylvania truly want, or what people of a ideology bent on enforcing their will on a majority through decades of gerrymandering want.
I ask my fellow voters: Is selling the Lottery and Liquor stores at the top of your priorities for our Government? I always thought it was about better management, not selling of the crown jewels for a short term fix. But that is what it looks like.
Nor does he want to be remembered as the guy who as Attorney General took his sweet time going about investigating convicted serial pedophile Jerry Sandusky, and literally killing Joe Paterno.
Also, Governor Corbett took a lot of campaign contributions from people who had agendas, and if he does get voted out, time is short to meet those obligations.
So our Governor has strongarmed through a deal to privatize the Lottery. The only stop gap in front of him is that his Successor as elected Attorney General, Kathleen Kane, gets an opportunity to review what has now been pointed out to a possibly not so beneficial financial deal for Pennsylvania. We are going to have to see how that plays out.
But while the Lottery Soap opera plays, the Governor has put out a Spin off show several years in development, SELL THE LIQUOR STORES!
I really don't know how I feel about this, I grew up in the Midwest where you can buy Vodka in the grocery store, and beer at the gas station, and I kind of miss that.
But my main point is that it seems the Governor wants to privatize anything he can to make a buck.
So I have a suggestion: Why not just privatize all of government, elected officials and all jobs? We could outsource it to the far east like everything else and save Billions. No more crisis with the public employees retirement system!
I'm sure there is a Company somewhere overseas that could import laborers willing to work for a dollar a day.
By now you have to realize I am not serious, and I am making light of the stuation.
The truth is I want the residents of Pennsylvania to wake up and take a look at what the elected legislature, controlled by one party, and their elected Governor, of that same party are doing. We need to ask ourselves if this is what WE THE PEOPLE of Pennsylvania truly want, or what people of a ideology bent on enforcing their will on a majority through decades of gerrymandering want.
I ask my fellow voters: Is selling the Lottery and Liquor stores at the top of your priorities for our Government? I always thought it was about better management, not selling of the crown jewels for a short term fix. But that is what it looks like.
Thursday, January 17, 2013
PA State Senator Daylin Leach Suspects that some of his colleagues are smoking Pot
I just love our state legislature. A few years back I tried to get a job there, bur I failed. Still, it seems to be one of the most funfilled places in America for doing mischief and getting away with it.
Yesterday on a radio show, State Senator Daylin Leach, a guy known for a wicked sense of humor, told the interviewer that he suspected a number of our elected representatives are users of marijuana.
Read all about his comedy HERE.
Now we all know those rascals are not above midnight pay raises, sweet heart car leasing deals, and giving themselves the best health care anyware, while restricting care for kids living in poverty.
So why the uproar over the idea that a few might be using a little wacky tobaccy?
We have had several of our local legislators get a DUI (or two or three) Remember Rep Thomas Druce from Bucks County and his vehicular homicide that he tried to cover up?. In 2005 We had a state rep claim he took the midnight pay raise so he could replace his furnace. (We promoted him to Judge, because he did pay it back.)
I could go on and on, but it has occurred to me that the legislature might have a higher percentage of criminals than the general population. Maybe the next time we need a new state prison we could just convert a building on the State house grounds? With their generous health plan, we might even offer them medicinal marijuana to help them cope with their terms, be it in the legislature or prison, or maybe both simultaneously. I'm sure John Perzel, Vince Fumo, Mike Veon, and Bill Deweese would be okay with it.
Yesterday on a radio show, State Senator Daylin Leach, a guy known for a wicked sense of humor, told the interviewer that he suspected a number of our elected representatives are users of marijuana.
Read all about his comedy HERE.
Now we all know those rascals are not above midnight pay raises, sweet heart car leasing deals, and giving themselves the best health care anyware, while restricting care for kids living in poverty.
So why the uproar over the idea that a few might be using a little wacky tobaccy?
We have had several of our local legislators get a DUI (or two or three) Remember Rep Thomas Druce from Bucks County and his vehicular homicide that he tried to cover up?. In 2005 We had a state rep claim he took the midnight pay raise so he could replace his furnace. (We promoted him to Judge, because he did pay it back.)
I could go on and on, but it has occurred to me that the legislature might have a higher percentage of criminals than the general population. Maybe the next time we need a new state prison we could just convert a building on the State house grounds? With their generous health plan, we might even offer them medicinal marijuana to help them cope with their terms, be it in the legislature or prison, or maybe both simultaneously. I'm sure John Perzel, Vince Fumo, Mike Veon, and Bill Deweese would be okay with it.
Wednesday, January 16, 2013
Dennis Pearson: Allentown Mayoral Candidate.....Really?
From Time to Time, I get some stuff in the rumor mill that makes me blink. The most recent is that East Allentown/Rittersville Neighborhood Association President Dennis Pearson is considering the possibility of challenging current Mayor Ed Pawlowski in the primary.
Now Stop Laughing. I know you are laughing, STOP IT!
Okay, you stopped. Now think about it. Dennis has been a community activists for decades. He has run unsuccessfully for State Representatice and an at large County Commissioners seat, and he does have name recognition. He has lived in Allentown all his life, and he does know the ins and outs on just about every local issue.
But really, could you imagine how a debate between Mator Pawlowski and Dennis Pearson might play out?! I honest to God wish I lived in Allentown so I could sign a nominating petition for Pearson. He might not have a snowball's chance in hell of winning, but by God, it sure as hell would be entertaining!
Now Stop Laughing. I know you are laughing, STOP IT!
Okay, you stopped. Now think about it. Dennis has been a community activists for decades. He has run unsuccessfully for State Representatice and an at large County Commissioners seat, and he does have name recognition. He has lived in Allentown all his life, and he does know the ins and outs on just about every local issue.
But really, could you imagine how a debate between Mator Pawlowski and Dennis Pearson might play out?! I honest to God wish I lived in Allentown so I could sign a nominating petition for Pearson. He might not have a snowball's chance in hell of winning, but by God, it sure as hell would be entertaining!
Teacher is a Porn Star? if only our local School Districts had these kinds of Problems
Everybody was shocked recently when a new kid showed up for his first day of classes at William Allen High School packing heat.
I wasn't amazed at all that it was someone in authority that busted him, and that not one of his schoolmates ratted him out.
It kind of says something about our culture in that the kids didn't seem fazed at all. Nor should we be surprised that privately there is speculation that there are likely a small number of students carrying in the Allentown school district everyday.
But if I had a choice between kids packing heat, and Teachers being porn stars, I have to say I would rather live with the latter.
A three female judicial review panel has ruled that Stacie Halas, 32, is unfit to teach science at Richard Hatdock Intermediate school in Oxnard California.
So out in California (Where else would THIS happen?) a teacher was fired from her Middle school teaching position after some of the kids in her classes saw those videos online and linked her to them. Remember that 80's hit "I'm hot for Teacher" by Van Halen? I went to an all male Catholic High School, my study hall was never like that.
Anyway, in the big picture, as we worry about kids dodging bullets in the class room, why would you fire a SCIENCE teacher who likely can explain sex education better than anybody else in the district?
Honestly, It would not surprise me if she moved to the Lehigh Valley and was hired right away, either by the East Penn or Parkland School districts, because they spend tax money like drunken sailors. Allentown wouldn't hire her, she's overqualified, they can't afford her, and there's always the possibility that a member of the School board would require her to prove she has adequate experience.
I wasn't amazed at all that it was someone in authority that busted him, and that not one of his schoolmates ratted him out.
It kind of says something about our culture in that the kids didn't seem fazed at all. Nor should we be surprised that privately there is speculation that there are likely a small number of students carrying in the Allentown school district everyday.
But if I had a choice between kids packing heat, and Teachers being porn stars, I have to say I would rather live with the latter.
A three female judicial review panel has ruled that Stacie Halas, 32, is unfit to teach science at Richard Hatdock Intermediate school in Oxnard California.
So out in California (Where else would THIS happen?) a teacher was fired from her Middle school teaching position after some of the kids in her classes saw those videos online and linked her to them. Remember that 80's hit "I'm hot for Teacher" by Van Halen? I went to an all male Catholic High School, my study hall was never like that.
Anyway, in the big picture, as we worry about kids dodging bullets in the class room, why would you fire a SCIENCE teacher who likely can explain sex education better than anybody else in the district?
Honestly, It would not surprise me if she moved to the Lehigh Valley and was hired right away, either by the East Penn or Parkland School districts, because they spend tax money like drunken sailors. Allentown wouldn't hire her, she's overqualified, they can't afford her, and there's always the possibility that a member of the School board would require her to prove she has adequate experience.
It's Mayhem, not Morning in America
It has been a month since evil came to the Sandy Hook Elementary School in Newtown Connecticut, I waited to post until I could do it clearly.
Like anyone else, I bow my head in prayer everytime I hear about some nutjob who starts shooting into crowds of unarmed innocents, be it a theater, a school, or anywhere else.
I don't like that certain weapons are so readily available, and I cringe when NRA "Spokespeople" say the answer is more weapons, and that schools should be patrolled by armed security.
But trying to control the availability of assault weapons in this Country is like trying to raise the Titanic and sail it into New York Harbor. There are at best estimates, somewhere between 300 million and 500 million firearms in the hands of private citizens in America.
Does anybody really think you can get a handle on even 10 % of them that are NOT in the system?
REALLY?!
I wish that we could put a cork in the bottle and lock the genie back in, but I don't think that will ever happen. The only way to even make a dent in this cycle of violence is to make adequate mental health treatment readily available, and in some cases, FORCE People to accept care. Yes, that idea brings about threats that it could be abused, but it is about time that we put the rights of everyone to walk freely and without fear in the community above the rights of a crazy person to scare everyone.
I have a carry permit. I rarely have need of it, but I like having it on occasion. I believe anyone who can meet the criteria should be able to get one, but I also feel that the criteria could be toughened up. I don't believe that the average citizen has a right to own a semi automatic assault weapon. Firearms have only one purpose: KILLING. And you should only shoot to kill as an absolute last resort to defend your life or the life of another.
What does it say about American society that we all need to be armed to the teeth to prevent killing each other? Why do we risk allowing people who it is reasonable to suggest aren't always going to act responsibly to have deadly weapons? Why can't anyone see how this circle of violence has evolved in America? We need more firearms to protect us from the firearms that are already out there?
My bottom line is this: I don't worry about me acting irresponsibly with a firearm, but I do worry about others. Our constitution (at least in my interpretation) guarantees me the right to protect myself and my property from others. I am actually glad that Pennsylvania has the "Castle" defense on the books. I also don't believe I need military grade weapons to ensure that. Either a Mossberg Pump Shotgun or a Glock 9 MM will do me just fine, thank you
But that doesn't stop stupid crazy people from picking up a firearm (and I mean any firearm, from 22 pistol to an M-16) and randomly firing away. We have all these laws on the books that haven't stopped anyone who commits murder from doing it. What makes us think one more law will make a difference?
There is a saying that guns don't kill people, people kill people.
I would add that gun laws don't stop people from killing other people, but I truly believe that a potential victim with their own firearm at least has a fighting chance.
Now before you go thinking I am actually for arming everybody, I would add that I think arming teachers and bringing more weapons into schools is about a bad idea as there could be. We are promoting a cycle of violence that seems without end. If we start arming teachers and having armed officers patrolling the schools, we are telling kids that to expect violence is the norm, not the exception. We are turning up the speed on the evolution of our culture into what some might call the "Culture of Death." So who is to blame?
We can't blame video games.
We can't blame Hollywood
We can't blame Firearm Manufacturers
We can't blame the media
We can't blame the Government for not protecting us.
Again, who should we blame?
OURSELVES
This is the America that we have made. We voted for the politicians, we buy the stuff that the ad people market to us. They sell us what their surveys tell them we want, and like it or not, we seem to like what we have got. The Allstate Insurance Commercial has it right, they say the "Mayhem" Commercials are the most popular they ever had. Mayhem, just what America wants, and just what America gets.
We made this country what it is. If we don't like where it is headed, it is up to us to change it, and change starts with each and every individual. I don't know where to start, but I do know we better start soon.
Like anyone else, I bow my head in prayer everytime I hear about some nutjob who starts shooting into crowds of unarmed innocents, be it a theater, a school, or anywhere else.
I don't like that certain weapons are so readily available, and I cringe when NRA "Spokespeople" say the answer is more weapons, and that schools should be patrolled by armed security.
But trying to control the availability of assault weapons in this Country is like trying to raise the Titanic and sail it into New York Harbor. There are at best estimates, somewhere between 300 million and 500 million firearms in the hands of private citizens in America.
Does anybody really think you can get a handle on even 10 % of them that are NOT in the system?
REALLY?!
I wish that we could put a cork in the bottle and lock the genie back in, but I don't think that will ever happen. The only way to even make a dent in this cycle of violence is to make adequate mental health treatment readily available, and in some cases, FORCE People to accept care. Yes, that idea brings about threats that it could be abused, but it is about time that we put the rights of everyone to walk freely and without fear in the community above the rights of a crazy person to scare everyone.
I have a carry permit. I rarely have need of it, but I like having it on occasion. I believe anyone who can meet the criteria should be able to get one, but I also feel that the criteria could be toughened up. I don't believe that the average citizen has a right to own a semi automatic assault weapon. Firearms have only one purpose: KILLING. And you should only shoot to kill as an absolute last resort to defend your life or the life of another.
What does it say about American society that we all need to be armed to the teeth to prevent killing each other? Why do we risk allowing people who it is reasonable to suggest aren't always going to act responsibly to have deadly weapons? Why can't anyone see how this circle of violence has evolved in America? We need more firearms to protect us from the firearms that are already out there?
My bottom line is this: I don't worry about me acting irresponsibly with a firearm, but I do worry about others. Our constitution (at least in my interpretation) guarantees me the right to protect myself and my property from others. I am actually glad that Pennsylvania has the "Castle" defense on the books. I also don't believe I need military grade weapons to ensure that. Either a Mossberg Pump Shotgun or a Glock 9 MM will do me just fine, thank you
But that doesn't stop stupid crazy people from picking up a firearm (and I mean any firearm, from 22 pistol to an M-16) and randomly firing away. We have all these laws on the books that haven't stopped anyone who commits murder from doing it. What makes us think one more law will make a difference?
There is a saying that guns don't kill people, people kill people.
I would add that gun laws don't stop people from killing other people, but I truly believe that a potential victim with their own firearm at least has a fighting chance.
Now before you go thinking I am actually for arming everybody, I would add that I think arming teachers and bringing more weapons into schools is about a bad idea as there could be. We are promoting a cycle of violence that seems without end. If we start arming teachers and having armed officers patrolling the schools, we are telling kids that to expect violence is the norm, not the exception. We are turning up the speed on the evolution of our culture into what some might call the "Culture of Death." So who is to blame?
We can't blame video games.
We can't blame Hollywood
We can't blame Firearm Manufacturers
We can't blame the media
We can't blame the Government for not protecting us.
Again, who should we blame?
OURSELVES
This is the America that we have made. We voted for the politicians, we buy the stuff that the ad people market to us. They sell us what their surveys tell them we want, and like it or not, we seem to like what we have got. The Allstate Insurance Commercial has it right, they say the "Mayhem" Commercials are the most popular they ever had. Mayhem, just what America wants, and just what America gets.
We made this country what it is. If we don't like where it is headed, it is up to us to change it, and change starts with each and every individual. I don't know where to start, but I do know we better start soon.
Friday, January 11, 2013
Yeah, I started posting again.
It didn't take long for the email to fill up once people realized I was back at it. I never really stopped. I wrote posts all the time, I just didn't publish them. Much of that was I didn't feel like taking sides on some issues, and part of it was a growing feeling of powerlessness on my part.
I think our Government is broken. The politicians are polarizing, and the media spurs on the hatefulness for ratings sake while simultaneously (and Hypocritically) decrying it.
All I can do is give my point of view and try and offer it in a reasonable manner. I've reached that point in life after 50 that I don't really give a damn whether people like what I think or say or not. I'm going to speak and write what I think is the truth, and you are free to diagree.
I think our Government is broken. The politicians are polarizing, and the media spurs on the hatefulness for ratings sake while simultaneously (and Hypocritically) decrying it.
All I can do is give my point of view and try and offer it in a reasonable manner. I've reached that point in life after 50 that I don't really give a damn whether people like what I think or say or not. I'm going to speak and write what I think is the truth, and you are free to diagree.
Thursday, January 10, 2013
Why the Allentown Water question matters to the rest of Lehigh County
I am a firm believer in representative Democracy. I also am a firm believer in the right of the governed to enact legislation through the ballot box by initiative when the public feels those they have elected to govern don't adequately address an important issue.
At this point, I will not give a view on whether or not I agree with either side in the issue of whether or not the Allentown water organization should be privatized, or leased.
But I will point out an inconvenient truth or two. One is that a private operator more than likely will raise rates to recoup their investment, indirectly causing issues for suburban water customers of the Lehigh County Authority. If you don't believe that could happen READ THIS
And I just don't mean homeowners, I mean industrial users as well.
Time after time, I hear from many of my suburban neighbors that they think whatever is happening in Allentown Government has no effect on them. The same people who close their eyes to Meth labs in the Suburbs like Lower Macungie wishfully pretend that all issues stop at the Allentown City line. But that is not true.
The Lehigh County Authority purchases quite a bit of water from Allentown so that those living in McMansion land can have a nice hot shower and flush their toilet all day long. The suburbs do have a dog in this fight, but they have been ignoring it. They won't wake up until the for profit people raise their rates substantially years down the line, when it is too late
Allentown Mayor Ed Pawlowski has at least tried to find solutions to funding problems in the city.
I don't always agree with him, but I respect him. Do you think cutting services is a better solution?
It is easy to criticize the man when you don't have a solution of your own. Personally, If I still lived in Allentown, I would be against the 50 year lease. But I don't have an alternative to the pension fund crisis, and I don't know what I would do. This is comparable to what our Walking dead County Commissioners are doing, just it's from the Democratic mayor of Allentown.
I give all sides credit for trying to do something, whether I think it is right or wrong.
But on the water issue, I won't be surprised if when the campaign finance reports go online, I see a whole bunch of money being given to both sides from sources outside Allentown.
For the private operator it is about profit, and for the public, it is about control of a vital resource.
And that is where the money will start talking. There are three Upper mac industrial tenants that I can name right off the bat that use Lehigh County Authority water at their facilities, Coca-Cola, Nestle Waters, and soon Ocean Spray. How do you think rising water rates would push their bottom line?
There are going to be some big players putting money into the water ballot issue. Don't doubt it, this is going to get even messier down the road.
So the question is, do you want to see Allentown meet its' safety forces pension costs in the short term, by having the costs for those pensions spread out across the County to residents and industrial users outside the city?
Or you can be against the privatization/lease, and tell the Mayor to find another solution.
What is the best answer? When you think about what rising water rates might mean to three large companies that employ thousands, you start wondering what the right answer is, and what we think is best for all.
Puts it in a whole new light doesn't it?
Think about it.
At this point, I will not give a view on whether or not I agree with either side in the issue of whether or not the Allentown water organization should be privatized, or leased.
But I will point out an inconvenient truth or two. One is that a private operator more than likely will raise rates to recoup their investment, indirectly causing issues for suburban water customers of the Lehigh County Authority. If you don't believe that could happen READ THIS
And I just don't mean homeowners, I mean industrial users as well.
Time after time, I hear from many of my suburban neighbors that they think whatever is happening in Allentown Government has no effect on them. The same people who close their eyes to Meth labs in the Suburbs like Lower Macungie wishfully pretend that all issues stop at the Allentown City line. But that is not true.
The Lehigh County Authority purchases quite a bit of water from Allentown so that those living in McMansion land can have a nice hot shower and flush their toilet all day long. The suburbs do have a dog in this fight, but they have been ignoring it. They won't wake up until the for profit people raise their rates substantially years down the line, when it is too late
Allentown Mayor Ed Pawlowski has at least tried to find solutions to funding problems in the city.
I don't always agree with him, but I respect him. Do you think cutting services is a better solution?
It is easy to criticize the man when you don't have a solution of your own. Personally, If I still lived in Allentown, I would be against the 50 year lease. But I don't have an alternative to the pension fund crisis, and I don't know what I would do. This is comparable to what our Walking dead County Commissioners are doing, just it's from the Democratic mayor of Allentown.
I give all sides credit for trying to do something, whether I think it is right or wrong.
But on the water issue, I won't be surprised if when the campaign finance reports go online, I see a whole bunch of money being given to both sides from sources outside Allentown.
For the private operator it is about profit, and for the public, it is about control of a vital resource.
And that is where the money will start talking. There are three Upper mac industrial tenants that I can name right off the bat that use Lehigh County Authority water at their facilities, Coca-Cola, Nestle Waters, and soon Ocean Spray. How do you think rising water rates would push their bottom line?
There are going to be some big players putting money into the water ballot issue. Don't doubt it, this is going to get even messier down the road.
So the question is, do you want to see Allentown meet its' safety forces pension costs in the short term, by having the costs for those pensions spread out across the County to residents and industrial users outside the city?
Or you can be against the privatization/lease, and tell the Mayor to find another solution.
What is the best answer? When you think about what rising water rates might mean to three large companies that employ thousands, you start wondering what the right answer is, and what we think is best for all.
Puts it in a whole new light doesn't it?
Think about it.
Wednesday, January 9, 2013
THe Bimbo Bread Co! how Appropriate for Upper Macungie Township
Bimbo!! ( Click on the link for the Wikipedia definition). How appropriate for a municipal body (The Upper Macungie Township supervisors) that has whored irself at every opportunity to bring in companies to use a piece of warehouse space (built or not.) Isn't it ironic that the board of commissioners would decry the traffic increase brought about by one employer, AMAZON! yet approve an action that will bring several hundred bread trucks into the community evey day? Will Bimbo pay for a traffic light as Amazon did?
Read all about it for FREE. here!
I am happy for the jobs, but I understand that Bimbo's New Jersey facility might be losing jobs. I am still checking on that. If that is the case. how many new jobs are actually being created, and not transferred?
Why can't the mainstream media do some fact checling and reporting on their own?
Read all about it for FREE. here!
I am happy for the jobs, but I understand that Bimbo's New Jersey facility might be losing jobs. I am still checking on that. If that is the case. how many new jobs are actually being created, and not transferred?
Why can't the mainstream media do some fact checling and reporting on their own?
Tuesday, January 8, 2013
Lehigh County Commissioners are a Tea Party version of the Walking Dead
I love The Lehigh County Commissioners. The Tea party fearsome Foursome (Ott, Scheller, Mazziotti, and Schware) have stayed true to their ideology, while Mr Creighton votes with them merely to try and save himself from a primary challenger.
BAD Brad OSBORNE! Shame on you for putting the good of all LEHIGH County residents ahead of political propaganda. Vic Mazziotti showed you! So now Lisa Scheller, er, Mrs Wayne Woodman, is the chair. The bad news for Tom Creighton is that the Tea party gang has not, and never will forget that you convinced them to make Bill Hansell the County Executive. Just ask Brad Osborne about their punitive side.
Mr Creighton doesn't want to believe it, but I'm betting Wayne Woodman has somebody lined up to challenge him in the primary. (The initials D.J. possibly?) Percy Daugherty knows what is coming, but I'm betting Percy wins anyway, in both the primary and the General. And don't be surprised if Stan Bielecki gets involved in what has been redistricted as David Jones seat.
The thing is, Mike Schware is vulnerable as his district is now constituted. And with Bill Leinart running for Creighton's seat, that puts it in play, because if an extreme tea party player wins the primary, it makes the general a hell of a lot more viable for Democrats.
Wayne Woodman is trying to purge his party of anybody he doesn't see as a true believer, and in the process, may actually hurt their overall chances.
Rumor has it that Wayne has actually approached current Lower Mac Supervisor (and SUPER REALTOR!) Ryan Conrad about running for Executive, and been rebuffed. I had heard that Lisa Scheller wasn't all that interested in being Executive or Commissioner's chair, but now she is the latter.
Insiders downtown tell me that Scott ott has no intention of running for exec, but in this upside down world, I'm going to wait until all the petitions are filed to believe it.
One last name I heard was Ryan McKenzie, but I don't think he would do it, it is beneath his station in life. I can't see mr Harvard doing it, at least while he is still listing his voting address as his mom's house.
So that's where it sits for now, we have the Lehigh County Commissioners agenda controlled by 4 ideologically driven citizens who put ideology over practicality and governing for the good of all, plus one R commissioner who wants to stay on their good side.
Watching all the shifting alliances makes me think of my favorite TV show, "The Walking Dead"
Draw your on Conclusions on which character is which, But I see Mazziotti as the Governor's doctor who thinks the dead are still people, Woodman as the unelected Governor, and Scheller as Andrea, Ott is likely Merle and Schware is his brother Darryl. Unfortunately the Prison folk don't leave me much to choose from our resident Dems. I guess we will have to see who steps into what role in the coming weeks.
BAD Brad OSBORNE! Shame on you for putting the good of all LEHIGH County residents ahead of political propaganda. Vic Mazziotti showed you! So now Lisa Scheller, er, Mrs Wayne Woodman, is the chair. The bad news for Tom Creighton is that the Tea party gang has not, and never will forget that you convinced them to make Bill Hansell the County Executive. Just ask Brad Osborne about their punitive side.
Mr Creighton doesn't want to believe it, but I'm betting Wayne Woodman has somebody lined up to challenge him in the primary. (The initials D.J. possibly?) Percy Daugherty knows what is coming, but I'm betting Percy wins anyway, in both the primary and the General. And don't be surprised if Stan Bielecki gets involved in what has been redistricted as David Jones seat.
The thing is, Mike Schware is vulnerable as his district is now constituted. And with Bill Leinart running for Creighton's seat, that puts it in play, because if an extreme tea party player wins the primary, it makes the general a hell of a lot more viable for Democrats.
Wayne Woodman is trying to purge his party of anybody he doesn't see as a true believer, and in the process, may actually hurt their overall chances.
Rumor has it that Wayne has actually approached current Lower Mac Supervisor (and SUPER REALTOR!) Ryan Conrad about running for Executive, and been rebuffed. I had heard that Lisa Scheller wasn't all that interested in being Executive or Commissioner's chair, but now she is the latter.
Insiders downtown tell me that Scott ott has no intention of running for exec, but in this upside down world, I'm going to wait until all the petitions are filed to believe it.
One last name I heard was Ryan McKenzie, but I don't think he would do it, it is beneath his station in life. I can't see mr Harvard doing it, at least while he is still listing his voting address as his mom's house.
So that's where it sits for now, we have the Lehigh County Commissioners agenda controlled by 4 ideologically driven citizens who put ideology over practicality and governing for the good of all, plus one R commissioner who wants to stay on their good side.
Watching all the shifting alliances makes me think of my favorite TV show, "The Walking Dead"
Draw your on Conclusions on which character is which, But I see Mazziotti as the Governor's doctor who thinks the dead are still people, Woodman as the unelected Governor, and Scheller as Andrea, Ott is likely Merle and Schware is his brother Darryl. Unfortunately the Prison folk don't leave me much to choose from our resident Dems. I guess we will have to see who steps into what role in the coming weeks.
Monday, November 12, 2012
Even Fox pokes fun at Karl Rove
http://youtu.be/Viyne8F06eU
Click on the above link to see what witty view the"Simpsons" had of Karl Rove's election night tantrum.
Click on the above link to see what witty view the"Simpsons" had of Karl Rove's election night tantrum.
Thursday, November 8, 2012
Prediction Recap
Okay, so here it is Thursday, and I picked all the winners correctly.
So lets take a look at my margins.
I wrote that I believed President Obama would be lucky to get 2.9 million votes. As of today on the Pa department of State Website, he received 2.86 million. Nailed that one, but I thought Romney would get around 2.7 million, slightly surpassing the 2.6+ million John McCain polled in 2008. On that I was way off, as Romney barely cracked 2.5 million votes.
Overall, Pa turnout was down over half a million from 2008. Yes, turnout was heavy, but it DID NOT MATCH 2008. The big message here is that many Republicans were not as enthusiastic for Romney as I thought.
In the United States Senate, I predicted Bob Casey 54 to 46 %. his final margin was 8.9%. I call that a winner.
I also wrote that Kathleen Kane would defeat David Freed for Attorney General by a likely 55-45% margin.
I hit that one dead on, but what really impressed me was Kathleen Kane being the only candidate on the Statewide ballot to crack the 3 million vote mark. That was impressive.She outperformed President Obama at the top of the ticket by almost 150,000 votes. That can not be ignored.
Finally, I think it was a foregone conclusion that Charlie Dent would win reelection to Congress. But I really didn't think it would be within 15 points, which it was (12.5% in fact). Dougherty ran a nonexistant campaign for the most part, and in many ways I think he may have hurt the Democrats below him.
Charlie Dent won Lehigh County by 6,000 votes, while President Obama won Lehigh county by almost 11,000 votes. That is a 17,000 vote swing. Dent won by 37,500 votes in the district overall.
Stay tuned, because one precinct alone kept Justin Simmons on the statehouse, and there is an interesting story behind it.
So lets take a look at my margins.
I wrote that I believed President Obama would be lucky to get 2.9 million votes. As of today on the Pa department of State Website, he received 2.86 million. Nailed that one, but I thought Romney would get around 2.7 million, slightly surpassing the 2.6+ million John McCain polled in 2008. On that I was way off, as Romney barely cracked 2.5 million votes.
Overall, Pa turnout was down over half a million from 2008. Yes, turnout was heavy, but it DID NOT MATCH 2008. The big message here is that many Republicans were not as enthusiastic for Romney as I thought.
In the United States Senate, I predicted Bob Casey 54 to 46 %. his final margin was 8.9%. I call that a winner.
I also wrote that Kathleen Kane would defeat David Freed for Attorney General by a likely 55-45% margin.
I hit that one dead on, but what really impressed me was Kathleen Kane being the only candidate on the Statewide ballot to crack the 3 million vote mark. That was impressive.She outperformed President Obama at the top of the ticket by almost 150,000 votes. That can not be ignored.
Finally, I think it was a foregone conclusion that Charlie Dent would win reelection to Congress. But I really didn't think it would be within 15 points, which it was (12.5% in fact). Dougherty ran a nonexistant campaign for the most part, and in many ways I think he may have hurt the Democrats below him.
Charlie Dent won Lehigh County by 6,000 votes, while President Obama won Lehigh county by almost 11,000 votes. That is a 17,000 vote swing. Dent won by 37,500 votes in the district overall.
Stay tuned, because one precinct alone kept Justin Simmons on the statehouse, and there is an interesting story behind it.
Monday, November 5, 2012
Democracy is a messy thing to predict, but here goes
I spend far too much time gathering, reading, analyzing and running algorithms with data I have gathered from past elections.
For instance I can tell you that in 2008, in the state of Pennsylvania, Barack Obama received 3,276,363 votes (54.4%), John McCain 2,655,885 (44.2%), and there were approximately 83,000 votes spead across other less well known candidates. That means just over 6,100,000 Pennsylvanains participated in 2008.
I used my uwn personal formula to come to my predictions, and I believe voter turnout in PA will not quite be as high as it was in 2008. I think turnout will be down at least 100,000 , maybe more. I will be surprised if turnout cracks 6 million again. I have factored in voter motivation, the weather being forecast as nearly 20 degrees colder than 2008, as well as public apathy towards the political process.
That brings me to my prediction as to who will win in PA.
I believe President Obama will not receive 3 million votes. I think he will be lucky to get 2.9 million. That leaves the door open for Mitt Romney . Romney will surpass John McCain's 2.6 million, and even George Bush's 2.7 million in 2004. His problem is that the same people who were energized to vote for Obama aren't switching sides, they are merely staying home. For Romney it all comes down to how many Obama voters in 2008 stay home, and to a smaller bit how many Independents that voted for Obama in 2008 go with Romney after ignoring McCain. Romney needs 4 out of 5 Independent voters (Close to 650,000 will vote in PA this year) to embrace him.
I believe Obama will win PA, but by a margin of less than 3%. I think it will be a 51.5% - 48.5% tace at best for Obama. I think it will be less than 100,000 votes in difference either way, and it is not out of the question that Romney could win. I think turnout in the Dem sreonghold of Philly has to be at least 90% of what it was in 2008 for Obama, and if it isn't, all bets are off, I am watching three Pa Congressional districts for a read, Fattah.s, Fitzpatrick, and Critz, Those are three diverse districts for voter demographic under my criteria. Cumulatively they will give me a cross section of what the results will be.
As for PA-15, Charlie Dent will win handily, Likely around 65% or more. I will do a post mortem on that race later. The other two biggiies I predict are Casey over Smith 54 to 46% in the U.S. Senate, and Kathleen Kane by a similar margin, possibly greater, maybe 55-45% in the AG race.
Now get out and vote!.
For instance I can tell you that in 2008, in the state of Pennsylvania, Barack Obama received 3,276,363 votes (54.4%), John McCain 2,655,885 (44.2%), and there were approximately 83,000 votes spead across other less well known candidates. That means just over 6,100,000 Pennsylvanains participated in 2008.
I used my uwn personal formula to come to my predictions, and I believe voter turnout in PA will not quite be as high as it was in 2008. I think turnout will be down at least 100,000 , maybe more. I will be surprised if turnout cracks 6 million again. I have factored in voter motivation, the weather being forecast as nearly 20 degrees colder than 2008, as well as public apathy towards the political process.
That brings me to my prediction as to who will win in PA.
I believe President Obama will not receive 3 million votes. I think he will be lucky to get 2.9 million. That leaves the door open for Mitt Romney . Romney will surpass John McCain's 2.6 million, and even George Bush's 2.7 million in 2004. His problem is that the same people who were energized to vote for Obama aren't switching sides, they are merely staying home. For Romney it all comes down to how many Obama voters in 2008 stay home, and to a smaller bit how many Independents that voted for Obama in 2008 go with Romney after ignoring McCain. Romney needs 4 out of 5 Independent voters (Close to 650,000 will vote in PA this year) to embrace him.
I believe Obama will win PA, but by a margin of less than 3%. I think it will be a 51.5% - 48.5% tace at best for Obama. I think it will be less than 100,000 votes in difference either way, and it is not out of the question that Romney could win. I think turnout in the Dem sreonghold of Philly has to be at least 90% of what it was in 2008 for Obama, and if it isn't, all bets are off, I am watching three Pa Congressional districts for a read, Fattah.s, Fitzpatrick, and Critz, Those are three diverse districts for voter demographic under my criteria. Cumulatively they will give me a cross section of what the results will be.
As for PA-15, Charlie Dent will win handily, Likely around 65% or more. I will do a post mortem on that race later. The other two biggiies I predict are Casey over Smith 54 to 46% in the U.S. Senate, and Kathleen Kane by a similar margin, possibly greater, maybe 55-45% in the AG race.
Now get out and vote!.
Saturday, August 11, 2012
November 2012 Election Predictions for the 15th Congressional district
There are less than ninety days until we try to vote, depending on whether we have ID or note. I have run two separate algorithms, one accounting for the Voter ID bill, and one without, The difference does favor Republicans but in the Presidential race it is not enough to take the 15th District away from Barack Obama. It is close, but Barack Obama still cariies it with between 50.4 and 51.9% of the vote. Statewide I believe Barack Obama will carry PA with somewhere just under 53%. The experts are right when they say the key to turnout for Obama is in Philly, and I also believe that despite my prediction, the State of PA still remains in play, but more from an it is Obama's to lose than a Romney's to win perspective.
In the race for Congress, Charlie Dent will likely win with between 60.2% and 61.7%. He will crush Rick Daugherty in a landslide. (The number I like is 60.45%) What people have to remember here is that redistricting gave Congressman Dent parts of Lebanon, Berks, and Dauphin Counties that lean Republican, while removing heavily leaning Democratic Easton from the district. Readers also have to realize that Congressman Dent connects with the Household income Demographic that exists in the district, Two Income households that make over $80K dominate the suburbs. They tend to register for an ideal, as Democrats, but when it comes to election day, they vote to protect their pocketbooks, for a Republican they see as moderate. Rick Daugherty is trying to be more Charlie Dent than Charlie Dent, and that isn't going to sway anybody in the undecided, if there are any left.
It is ironic that voters will use that reasoning to vote for Dent and Obama, splitting their tickets, but anyone looking at the last three Congressional contests will see that is just what they did. When I added up the precinct results from the last three elections, I saw Kerry would have won the new district in 2008, in precincts that Jim Gerlach carried.
As for the local State house races, I am looking at them, and I will have more on that eventually.
In the race for Congress, Charlie Dent will likely win with between 60.2% and 61.7%. He will crush Rick Daugherty in a landslide. (The number I like is 60.45%) What people have to remember here is that redistricting gave Congressman Dent parts of Lebanon, Berks, and Dauphin Counties that lean Republican, while removing heavily leaning Democratic Easton from the district. Readers also have to realize that Congressman Dent connects with the Household income Demographic that exists in the district, Two Income households that make over $80K dominate the suburbs. They tend to register for an ideal, as Democrats, but when it comes to election day, they vote to protect their pocketbooks, for a Republican they see as moderate. Rick Daugherty is trying to be more Charlie Dent than Charlie Dent, and that isn't going to sway anybody in the undecided, if there are any left.
It is ironic that voters will use that reasoning to vote for Dent and Obama, splitting their tickets, but anyone looking at the last three Congressional contests will see that is just what they did. When I added up the precinct results from the last three elections, I saw Kerry would have won the new district in 2008, in precincts that Jim Gerlach carried.
As for the local State house races, I am looking at them, and I will have more on that eventually.
Saturday, March 31, 2012
Lehigh County Commissioners would be right at home in North Korea.
On Wednesday, there was a meeting of the Lehigh County Commissioners. At that meeting, they discussed repealing a resolution to put a term limits initiative for County Officeholders on the ballot in November. One of their reasons was that there would be too many uninformed voters participating this year because of the Presidential election.
SAY WHAT?
I always thought having more eligible voters involved in making a decision was a good thing, but the 8 to 1 Republican Commissioner majority doesn't want the 35,000 voter registration majority of the Democrats to have their fair say.
That's sort of like the President of North Korea only holding elections when he knows he will win, dontcha think?
I find it amazing that the "REFORM" gang of Three plus their allies are so open about their efforts to suppress any opportunity for the people to use their voice at the ballot box. How Ironic that people like Scott Ott who profess to be such devout supporters of the Constitution would so willingly act to subvert the intent of it.
So much for Democracy. I guess they only believe in it when it only serves their means. Elections are only good things when the outcome is what you want. Welcome to the People's Republic of Lehigh County, ruled by 8 Republicans who don't want any ballot initiatives that would challenge their benign dictatorship by committee. Maybe they admired how Saddam Hussein ran Iraq after all. They sure are acting a bit like the Ba'athist party did, excluding the rival religious sects from power.
It should be noted that the referendum would allow present Executive Don Cunningham to run for a third term, something Commissioner Vice Chairman for life wannabe Scott Ott just can't have.
Some reform team Ott, Mazziotti and Scheller have proved to be. It looks like they have the "Incumbent Protection Plan" all figured out. Same old political games, but they all have an "R" by their names.
SAY WHAT?
I always thought having more eligible voters involved in making a decision was a good thing, but the 8 to 1 Republican Commissioner majority doesn't want the 35,000 voter registration majority of the Democrats to have their fair say.
That's sort of like the President of North Korea only holding elections when he knows he will win, dontcha think?
I find it amazing that the "REFORM" gang of Three plus their allies are so open about their efforts to suppress any opportunity for the people to use their voice at the ballot box. How Ironic that people like Scott Ott who profess to be such devout supporters of the Constitution would so willingly act to subvert the intent of it.
So much for Democracy. I guess they only believe in it when it only serves their means. Elections are only good things when the outcome is what you want. Welcome to the People's Republic of Lehigh County, ruled by 8 Republicans who don't want any ballot initiatives that would challenge their benign dictatorship by committee. Maybe they admired how Saddam Hussein ran Iraq after all. They sure are acting a bit like the Ba'athist party did, excluding the rival religious sects from power.
It should be noted that the referendum would allow present Executive Don Cunningham to run for a third term, something Commissioner Vice Chairman for life wannabe Scott Ott just can't have.
Some reform team Ott, Mazziotti and Scheller have proved to be. It looks like they have the "Incumbent Protection Plan" all figured out. Same old political games, but they all have an "R" by their names.
Thursday, March 8, 2012
Looks like Someone tinkered with the sign at PP&L Plaza
Thank God for camera phones.
You can take whatever you want from the message, I only felt it was worth sharing.
Tuesday, February 14, 2012
Did Pawlowski encourage Jaindl to "Ante Up?"
One nice thing about the Internet is it allows campaign finance reports to be posted online, where everyone can see them. Unfortunately, much like the newspaper, people can still refuse to read them or ignore them all together.
I don't ignore any of them, what I do is try to read between the lines.
And on that note, I want to point out something that all the various reporters in local media may have unintentionally, or intentionally overlooked when it comes to the 2011 campaign finance report for the Entity known as "Friends of Ed Pawloski."
Mayor Pawlowski was not up for reelection in 2011, but he raised a boatload of cash from all over the state. The list of donors was a who's who of the influential.
But if there was one donation that caught my eye, (and there were many) that made me question the motivation for it, it was one made on 12/5/2011 by the president of the American bank, one Mark Jaindl.
The Jaindl name means much in the Lehigh valley, not just for Turkeys, McMansions, or the Mother of all Warehouse districts, it also is emblazoned on an entire wing at Lehigh Valley Hospital.
Make no mistake, when the Jaindl family puts their name and fortune behind a project, you can bet that the project will happen. I'm not arguing whether they are right or wrong, and this isn't about the quarry or any sweetheart deals with Township officials. Besides, that is more of an issue for David Jaindl.
This is about Mark Jaindl giving $2000 to Ed Pawlowski within days of his investing Jaindl money into the proposed riverfront development down by the Lehigh Structural Steel property.
Now I personally think that the Jaindl family pushing this is great news. Developing the waterfront, especially as to the Neuweiler Brewery Property is something the city, and the County needs. I'm not thrilled with the EIT tax grab, but that's not my focus here either.
My focus here is the appearance that Ed Pawlowski demanded tribute from Mark Jaindl to smooth the project along.
Why do I think this way?
Mark Jaindl has been here all his life, Ed Pawlowski a decade at most. Since Pawlowski ran for mayor in 2005, I can't find one previous financial contribution to DEMOCRAT Ed Pawlowski anywhere from a member of the Jaindl family, who happen to be staunch Republicans.
Sure I could have missed them, but really, the one I write about is right there on page 21 0f 28 of the campaign finance report for all to see. It is only two entries above the entry for $2000 from Chris Perrucci. Why isn't anyone in the mainstream media asking questions about that?
The problem is that the public has a right to know how their elected officials are using public funds, and it always seems like campaign donations are nothing more than bidders trying to get a piece of the pie.
In Mr. Jaindl's case, he doesn't need the money, the better analogy appears to be that of a new player at the Arena table in Allentown being forced to buy his way into the game.
Everything that is going on is LEGAL. But excuse me for thinking that it just isn't right.
If done the right way, with the right motivations, The arena project and surrounding development COULD, revitalize our urban core. But if it becomes a cesspool of greed and manipulated overpriced contracts like other projects around the country before it, Allentown could end up like Trenton. I believe that having the Jaindl family in the mix will prevent that. But I also fear that faced with dealing with political corruption and other unsavory variables, they might cut their losses and bail. They are not fools to be easily parted with their money, and if they see money going down a toilet, they won't go along.
In this case, the ends do not justify the means. I am an avid student of history, and one thing I read again and again is that eventually people get too greedy and it leads to their down fall. What is taking place in Allentown/Lehigh County has eerie similarities to the Michael Soloman/Glenn Reibman fiasco in Northampton County just over a decade ago.
Those who ignore the past are destined to repeat it. In Ed Pawlowski's defense, he didn't get here until after that "Soloman goes to prison" went down.
But that is still no excuse.
I don't ignore any of them, what I do is try to read between the lines.
And on that note, I want to point out something that all the various reporters in local media may have unintentionally, or intentionally overlooked when it comes to the 2011 campaign finance report for the Entity known as "Friends of Ed Pawloski."
Mayor Pawlowski was not up for reelection in 2011, but he raised a boatload of cash from all over the state. The list of donors was a who's who of the influential.
But if there was one donation that caught my eye, (and there were many) that made me question the motivation for it, it was one made on 12/5/2011 by the president of the American bank, one Mark Jaindl.
The Jaindl name means much in the Lehigh valley, not just for Turkeys, McMansions, or the Mother of all Warehouse districts, it also is emblazoned on an entire wing at Lehigh Valley Hospital.
Make no mistake, when the Jaindl family puts their name and fortune behind a project, you can bet that the project will happen. I'm not arguing whether they are right or wrong, and this isn't about the quarry or any sweetheart deals with Township officials. Besides, that is more of an issue for David Jaindl.
This is about Mark Jaindl giving $2000 to Ed Pawlowski within days of his investing Jaindl money into the proposed riverfront development down by the Lehigh Structural Steel property.
Now I personally think that the Jaindl family pushing this is great news. Developing the waterfront, especially as to the Neuweiler Brewery Property is something the city, and the County needs. I'm not thrilled with the EIT tax grab, but that's not my focus here either.
My focus here is the appearance that Ed Pawlowski demanded tribute from Mark Jaindl to smooth the project along.
Why do I think this way?
Mark Jaindl has been here all his life, Ed Pawlowski a decade at most. Since Pawlowski ran for mayor in 2005, I can't find one previous financial contribution to DEMOCRAT Ed Pawlowski anywhere from a member of the Jaindl family, who happen to be staunch Republicans.
Sure I could have missed them, but really, the one I write about is right there on page 21 0f 28 of the campaign finance report for all to see. It is only two entries above the entry for $2000 from Chris Perrucci. Why isn't anyone in the mainstream media asking questions about that?
The problem is that the public has a right to know how their elected officials are using public funds, and it always seems like campaign donations are nothing more than bidders trying to get a piece of the pie.
In Mr. Jaindl's case, he doesn't need the money, the better analogy appears to be that of a new player at the Arena table in Allentown being forced to buy his way into the game.
Everything that is going on is LEGAL. But excuse me for thinking that it just isn't right.
If done the right way, with the right motivations, The arena project and surrounding development COULD, revitalize our urban core. But if it becomes a cesspool of greed and manipulated overpriced contracts like other projects around the country before it, Allentown could end up like Trenton. I believe that having the Jaindl family in the mix will prevent that. But I also fear that faced with dealing with political corruption and other unsavory variables, they might cut their losses and bail. They are not fools to be easily parted with their money, and if they see money going down a toilet, they won't go along.
In this case, the ends do not justify the means. I am an avid student of history, and one thing I read again and again is that eventually people get too greedy and it leads to their down fall. What is taking place in Allentown/Lehigh County has eerie similarities to the Michael Soloman/Glenn Reibman fiasco in Northampton County just over a decade ago.
Those who ignore the past are destined to repeat it. In Ed Pawlowski's defense, he didn't get here until after that "Soloman goes to prison" went down.
But that is still no excuse.
Tuesday, January 17, 2012
Mike Schware endorsed to fill Eckhart's term
It wasn't a big secret that the Intergovernmental Committee of the Lehigh County Commissioners would be meeting Tuesday night to interview the three candidates to replace Glenn Eckhart. The Voters promoted Eckhart in November and he took office as County Controller a few weeks ago, after defeating incumbent Tom Slonaker for the job.
But for some reason, other than 6 of the 8 current commissioners, three county employees, and the three applicants, the only two people in attendance to witness the proceedings were me and Express Times reporter Colin McEvoy. Read his account HERE
The Intergovernmental Committee consist of Republicans Scott Ott (Chairman), Tom Creighton, Vic Mazziotti, and Democrat Dan McCarthy, but Republicans Brad Osborne and Percy Daugherty were present as well. Norma Cusick was the first applicant to be interviewed, and she passed out her resume.
Mrs Cusick rambled on in her introduction about her Republican street cred as a fiscal conservative and her roles in the community, serving on the Lehigh County Authority, the Allentown Public Library board, and as a Township Supervisor in Salisbury. I was quickly put off by her trumpeting of her never voting to raise taxes. I was amused later when during questioning by none other than reform team member Scott Ott she admitted that she had voted for tax hikes as a Salisbury School district board member, but only because of those pesky unfunded mandates.
There was no question that Mrs Cusick had the requisite time put in doing public service to apply for the job, but it was painfully obvious, at least to me that she wasn't the best candidate.
Next up was Dan Paschke, a Coopersburg resident and a legislative aide to State Representative Justin Simmons. I would like to think that Dan had good intentions in applying but his answers to the Commissioners questions exposed his naivete and made him look like a political opportunist.
Paschke had no opinion on a bi-county health commission, and was cautious answering questions about whether he was worried about voting on issues while serving as a legislative aide. It should be noted that former Commissioner Democrat Kurt Derr worked for State Senator Lisa Boscola in recent years without problems. Neither Paschke or Cusick seemed to have a grasp about what being a commissioner entailed, both spoke that they would work to curtail any services duplicated at the County level to cut spending. The two conveniently ignore the fact that the Commissioners and current executive Don Cunningham have been doing just that for the past 6 years, but hey, it sounds good.
Last up was Allentown resident and CPA Mike Schware. For his introductory statement, Mike simply read about his life history, growing up in Allentown, his resume, and living with his wife and two daughters on 16th street. He didn't spout any political slogans or agenda, but did accentuate his experience as an accountant and a person willing to work with others of different and varying opinions. I'm not saying that Paschke or Cusick could nor or would not be willing to work well with the other Commissioners, I am just pointing out that Schware focused on serving the electorate over using political catch phrases to try and get appointed to a job.
I was glad to see Mike get recommended to the full board for appointment. The Three Republicans voted for him, but Dan McCarthy did point out that Norma Cusick's long history of public service made her his preference. Even though they were present for the interviews, Commissioners Osbourne and Daugherty did not vote, but they did ask questions of each applicant.
The most bizarre and off topic question was asked by Commissioner Tom Creighton, who asked each applicant where they thought the U.S. Dollar would be in the near future. It was either a genius question to see if they had a grasp of how the strength of the dollar effects municipal bond and or credit ratings or an example of how clueless an officeholder can be. You decide.
Dan McCarthy asked if each applicant had plans to run for a full term in two years and each was up front that it was likely but predicated on how well they felt they could do the job after two years.
On their views of the Bi County health bureau, Cusick was for it, Pasche admitted he needed more information before taking a position, and Schware had reservations about how it would be funded, but I got the impression that while he was against it, he would be open to compromise if it could be funded without drastic cost to the taxpayers.
That's all for now, I will have something else in a couple of days.
But for some reason, other than 6 of the 8 current commissioners, three county employees, and the three applicants, the only two people in attendance to witness the proceedings were me and Express Times reporter Colin McEvoy. Read his account HERE
The Intergovernmental Committee consist of Republicans Scott Ott (Chairman), Tom Creighton, Vic Mazziotti, and Democrat Dan McCarthy, but Republicans Brad Osborne and Percy Daugherty were present as well. Norma Cusick was the first applicant to be interviewed, and she passed out her resume.
Mrs Cusick rambled on in her introduction about her Republican street cred as a fiscal conservative and her roles in the community, serving on the Lehigh County Authority, the Allentown Public Library board, and as a Township Supervisor in Salisbury. I was quickly put off by her trumpeting of her never voting to raise taxes. I was amused later when during questioning by none other than reform team member Scott Ott she admitted that she had voted for tax hikes as a Salisbury School district board member, but only because of those pesky unfunded mandates.
There was no question that Mrs Cusick had the requisite time put in doing public service to apply for the job, but it was painfully obvious, at least to me that she wasn't the best candidate.
Next up was Dan Paschke, a Coopersburg resident and a legislative aide to State Representative Justin Simmons. I would like to think that Dan had good intentions in applying but his answers to the Commissioners questions exposed his naivete and made him look like a political opportunist.
Paschke had no opinion on a bi-county health commission, and was cautious answering questions about whether he was worried about voting on issues while serving as a legislative aide. It should be noted that former Commissioner Democrat Kurt Derr worked for State Senator Lisa Boscola in recent years without problems. Neither Paschke or Cusick seemed to have a grasp about what being a commissioner entailed, both spoke that they would work to curtail any services duplicated at the County level to cut spending. The two conveniently ignore the fact that the Commissioners and current executive Don Cunningham have been doing just that for the past 6 years, but hey, it sounds good.
Last up was Allentown resident and CPA Mike Schware. For his introductory statement, Mike simply read about his life history, growing up in Allentown, his resume, and living with his wife and two daughters on 16th street. He didn't spout any political slogans or agenda, but did accentuate his experience as an accountant and a person willing to work with others of different and varying opinions. I'm not saying that Paschke or Cusick could nor or would not be willing to work well with the other Commissioners, I am just pointing out that Schware focused on serving the electorate over using political catch phrases to try and get appointed to a job.
I was glad to see Mike get recommended to the full board for appointment. The Three Republicans voted for him, but Dan McCarthy did point out that Norma Cusick's long history of public service made her his preference. Even though they were present for the interviews, Commissioners Osbourne and Daugherty did not vote, but they did ask questions of each applicant.
The most bizarre and off topic question was asked by Commissioner Tom Creighton, who asked each applicant where they thought the U.S. Dollar would be in the near future. It was either a genius question to see if they had a grasp of how the strength of the dollar effects municipal bond and or credit ratings or an example of how clueless an officeholder can be. You decide.
Dan McCarthy asked if each applicant had plans to run for a full term in two years and each was up front that it was likely but predicated on how well they felt they could do the job after two years.
On their views of the Bi County health bureau, Cusick was for it, Pasche admitted he needed more information before taking a position, and Schware had reservations about how it would be funded, but I got the impression that while he was against it, he would be open to compromise if it could be funded without drastic cost to the taxpayers.
That's all for now, I will have something else in a couple of days.
Tuesday, January 10, 2012
"Survivor, Republican Primary" is a God Awful reality show.
I'm not the amazing Kreskin. I'm not psychic, nor do I pretend to be. ESPN has a show in during the day called "NUMBERS DON'T LIE". I am a serious believer in numbers and data. I don't agree with how some read certain statistics and data, especially when it comes to elections, turnout projections, and results. So I am slightly amused at all the excitement over two early Presidential primaries in two states, Iowa and New Hampshire, that I find hard to accept as a reasonable slice of the American consciousness.
Lets be real, in the United States of America, White people make up less than 50% of the population, but we are gauging aspiring Presidential hopefuls on two states that are damn near 90% white and make up less than 1.5% of the Population. Iowa has around 3 million and New Hampshire 1.3 Million, according to the last census. There's 308 million plus here now in all of the country. Why are we magnifying their importance?
Mitt Romney won and Ron Paul came in second. All the various messages aside, I believe that average Americans of every creed and color, White, Black, Hispanic, Christian, Muslim, Jew or whatever, will see thru all the political rhetoric and vote for what they see as the safest course to take.
And that course is likely to stay with our incumbent, whether some like it or not.
The politics of destruction that I see being waged by the far right of the Republican party to consolidate themselves in a primary is one that turns off the American public in the General.
As I watch the PBS coverage, I am struck by the pundits who felt that voters chose Romney because "while voters aren't enthusiastic for Romney, they chose General motors and played it safe."
The richer and older you were, the more likely Republicans were to vote for Romney. This from columnist Mark Shields. That's a telling observation. Romney got 45% of the vote from voters who made over $100,000. That's great, but in the general, how many Americans make that much these days?
Exit polls also showed voters chose Romney because they felt him electable.
This is all wonderful stuff, and if this were a football playoff game the pundits would be hypothesizing how great a chance Romney has in the upcoming Super Bowl In November.
I look at the Republican Primary as a bad season of a reality show. The networks are hyping false drama to build interest, so people will watch and care. But most viewers, er voters, don't really give a damn. The Republicans have not put forth any viable candidates with good alternatives to what President Obama is pushing. Lets be honest, Who in the Republican party do you see as Presidential?
There's no one that I see, and the Republicans have only themselves to blame for disappointing the American public.
Lets be real, in the United States of America, White people make up less than 50% of the population, but we are gauging aspiring Presidential hopefuls on two states that are damn near 90% white and make up less than 1.5% of the Population. Iowa has around 3 million and New Hampshire 1.3 Million, according to the last census. There's 308 million plus here now in all of the country. Why are we magnifying their importance?
Mitt Romney won and Ron Paul came in second. All the various messages aside, I believe that average Americans of every creed and color, White, Black, Hispanic, Christian, Muslim, Jew or whatever, will see thru all the political rhetoric and vote for what they see as the safest course to take.
And that course is likely to stay with our incumbent, whether some like it or not.
The politics of destruction that I see being waged by the far right of the Republican party to consolidate themselves in a primary is one that turns off the American public in the General.
As I watch the PBS coverage, I am struck by the pundits who felt that voters chose Romney because "while voters aren't enthusiastic for Romney, they chose General motors and played it safe."
The richer and older you were, the more likely Republicans were to vote for Romney. This from columnist Mark Shields. That's a telling observation. Romney got 45% of the vote from voters who made over $100,000. That's great, but in the general, how many Americans make that much these days?
Exit polls also showed voters chose Romney because they felt him electable.
This is all wonderful stuff, and if this were a football playoff game the pundits would be hypothesizing how great a chance Romney has in the upcoming Super Bowl In November.
I look at the Republican Primary as a bad season of a reality show. The networks are hyping false drama to build interest, so people will watch and care. But most viewers, er voters, don't really give a damn. The Republicans have not put forth any viable candidates with good alternatives to what President Obama is pushing. Lets be honest, Who in the Republican party do you see as Presidential?
There's no one that I see, and the Republicans have only themselves to blame for disappointing the American public.
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